India’s Net Zero Plan: The Way Forward

Introduction

India as one of the fastest growing economy of the world, has a pivotal role in global climate change mitigation. The country has set an ambitious target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, which aligns with its commitment to the Paris Agreement. This article explores India's net-zero plan, its strategies, challenges, and the way forward.

Fossil fuels accounted for more than 77% of India’s primary energy consumption in 2023. Under the Energy Transition Scenario (ETS), their consumption continues to rise, from 32 exajoules (EJ) in 2023 to 38 EJ (1 exajoule = 10^18 joule) till 2050, but peaks a few years earlier as power and transport sectors decarbonize. Consumption of coal and oil reaches the maximum at 29 EJ and 11 EJ, respectively, in 2038, whereas gas grows all the way till 2050. The share of fossil fuels in total primary energy consumption drops to 64% in 2050.

India’s total final energy demand reaches 45 EJ in 2050 under the ETS, up ~ 60 % from 28 EJ in 2023. In the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), final energy demand rises to 47 EJ, up ~ 68 %. Overall demand for energy under the NZS is 8 % higher compared to the ETS as a result of greater use of more energy-intensive decarbonization technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen.

Energy-related emissions in India have yet to peak. Under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario– which is primarily driven by the cost competitiveness of technologies and assumes no new policy changes – emissions continue to rise and do not peak until 2038, when they hit 3.6 billion metric tons of CO2 (GtCO2), 17% higher than today. Emissions then drop to 3.1 GtCO2 by 2050, still above current levels.

India’s Commitment to Net Zero

In November 2021, during the COP26 climate summit, Prime Minister of India announced India’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.

The announcement underscored the country's recognition of the urgent need to address climate change while balancing its developmental needs. India’s plan is built on the following key pillars:

1.    Increasing Renewable Energy Capacity: India aims to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030. This involves a significant increase in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.

2.    Energy Efficiency: The government has initiated various programs to enhance energy efficiency across sectors, aiming for a reduction in energy intensity of GDP by 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030.

3.    Afforestation and Carbon Sinks: India plans to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2030.

4.    Sustainable Agriculture: The promotion of sustainable agricultural practices is crucial to reduce emissions from this sector, which is a significant contributor to greenhouse gases in India.

5.    Transitioning to Clean Mobility: The government is pushing for electric vehicles (EVs) and improved public transport systems to reduce emissions from the transport sector.

Current Status and Progress

India has made considerable progress in its renewable energy sector. As of 2023, the country has achieved approximately 175 GW of renewable energy capacity. Solar energy has seen remarkable growth, driven by government incentives and falling technology costs. Despite this progress, challenges remain. A significant portion of India's energy is still derived from coal, which poses a challenge to achieving net-zero goals. Transitioning away from coal while ensuring energy security and affordability is critical.

Challenges to Achieving Net Zero

1.    Energy Security: With a growing population and increasing energy demands, ensuring a stable and secure energy supply is paramount. Transitioning too quickly from coal could lead to energy shortages.

2.    Infrastructure: Existing infrastructure is largely geared towards fossil fuels. Transforming this infrastructure to support renewable energy sources requires significant investment and planning.

3.    Financing: Mobilizing funds for renewable energy projects and sustainable practices is essential. While India has seen increased investments, more is needed, particularly in rural areas.

4.    Policy and Regulatory Framework: A coherent policy framework is necessary to promote renewable energy while phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels. Regulatory uncertainties can deter investment in clean technologies.

Indian Industry Declaration on Net Zero

Recognizing the critical role of industries in achieving net-zero emissions, several Indian corporations have made public declarations to pursue their own net-zero targets. Key sectors, including steel, cement, and textiles, are beginning to adopt sustainable practices and technologies aimed at reducing their carbon footprints. Collaborations between industry stakeholders and the government are essential to create a conducive environment for innovation and investment in green technologies. Initiatives such as the "India Business and Biodiversity Initiative" exemplify this commitment, as businesses work collectively to align with national climate goals.

Readiness of Citizen Partnership

The success of India’s net-zero plan hinges not only on government initiatives but also on citizen engagement and partnership. Public awareness campaigns, educational programs, and community initiatives are crucial to foster a culture of sustainability. Citizens are becoming increasingly involved in sustainable practices, such as waste segregation, water conservation, and promoting local renewable energy solutions. The role of youth in advocating for climate action is especially promising, with grassroots movements gaining momentum across the country. By empowering citizens and encouraging their participation, India can build a strong coalition for climate action.

Transforming the Transport Sector

The transport sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in India, necessitating a comprehensive transition to clean mobility solutions. The government is implementing policies to encourage electric vehicles (EVs) through incentives, infrastructure development, and public transport modernization. The Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme is one such initiative, promoting the use of EVs across urban centres. Moreover, integrating smart transport solutions, such as shared mobility and public transport enhancements, will further reduce emissions and improve urban air quality.

Sustainable Agriculture and AI Technology

Agriculture is a key sector for India's economy and also a major emitter of greenhouse gases. The shift towards sustainable agricultural practices is vital for achieving net-zero targets. Techniques such as precision farming, organic farming, and agroforestry can significantly reduce emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology in agriculture is revolutionizing this sector by optimizing resource use, improving crop yields, and minimizing waste. For example, AI-driven data analytics can assist farmers in making informed decisions regarding crop management and resource allocation, leading to more sustainable practices.

The Role of Natural Gas in India's Net Zero Strategy

Natural gas is increasingly recognized as a vital component of India's transition to a net-zero economy. As a cleaner-burning fossil fuel, natural gas emits significantly less carbon dioxide compared to coal and oil, making it an essential bridge fuel in the energy transition. India aims to raise the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix to 15% by 2030, up from around 6.4 % currently. This shift can facilitate the gradual phasing out of coal-fired power plants while ensuring energy security and affordability. Moreover, the development of domestic natural gas resources, along with the expansion of gas infrastructure, such as NGG pipelines and LNG terminals, will enhance supply reliability. Additionally, natural gas can support the integration of renewable energy by providing flexible backup power, essential for balancing the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy. By strategically leveraging natural gas, India can make significant strides toward its net-zero targets while supporting economic growth and energy access for all citizens.

The Way Forward

India’s energy transition will rely on a diverse portfolio of technologies that jointly deliver the deep decarbonization needed, including those that are not yet cost competitive or deployed on a commercial scale.

Clean power technologies, such as wind and solar, are already cheaper than generating electricity from new fossil-fuel projects. Renewables also undercut already commissioned coal plants by the mid-2030s. Under BNEF’s pathway to achieve net-zero emissions, dubbed the Net Zero Scenario, India has over 4 terawatts of solar and wind installed by 2050, up more than 30-fold from current levels.

Carbon capture and storage emerges in the power and industry sectors near the end of this decade in the Net Zero Scenario. Uptake of hydrogen in industries also begins around the same time. Compared to a ‘no transition’ pathway, carbon capture curbs about half the emissions from steel production by 2050 and 26% from cement, while hydrogen abates a quarter of emissions from steel and aluminium production.

Getting to net zero by 2050 hinges on $12.4 trillion of investment in India between now and 2050. Some 36% of this goes towards the uptake of electric vehicles and almost a third to expanding renewables capacity and the size of the country’s electricity grid.

Decarbonizing today’s energy systems requires a substantial scale-up of capital directed toward low carbon assets and infrastructure. And while investment in fossil fuels needs to be tapered, some spending is still necessary as these fuels play a role even in a net-zero pathway.

To successfully achieve its net-zero target, India must adopt a multi-faceted approach that involves:

1.     Strengthening Policy Frameworks: Establishing clear, long-term policies that incentivize renewable energy adoption while gradually phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

2.     Investing in Research and Development: Fostering innovation in clean technologies, particularly in energy storage, smart grids, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

3.     Enhancing International Cooperation: Collaborating with other nations for technology transfer, financial support, and capacity building will be vital. India can benefit from shared knowledge and resources to accelerate its transition.

4.     Promoting Public Awareness and Engagement: Engaging communities and raising awareness about the importance of sustainable practices can drive grassroots movements that support government initiatives.

5.     Building Resilient Infrastructure: Investing in modern infrastructure that can support a diversified energy mix and withstand the impacts of climate change is crucial.

India’s net-zero plan represents a significant commitment to address, the climate change while promoting sustainable development. The path ahead is fraught with challenges, but with strategic planning, investment, community engagement and international cooperation, India can transition to a low-carbon economy. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 is not just an environmental necessity; it is an opportunity to build a sustainable future that can inspire other nations and ensure a healthier planet for future generations.

In conclusion, as India navigates its path towards net-zero, the world watches closely, recognizing that the actions taken today will have profound implications for the global climate landscape.