An international tipping point on Gaza

Though Israel and the United States boycotted it, last week’s U.N. conference on a two-state solution seemed to mark a tipping point in international sentiment around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war. As anger grows over widespread hunger in Gaza, and with Israel continuing its military strikes on the densely populated strip, the United Kingdom announced its intention at the conference to recognize Palestine at the U.N. General Assembly in September if Israel does not agree to a cease-fire. Roughly three-fourths of the world’s countries have already unconditionally recognized Palestine as a state, but for the U.K. to even signal such a move reveals how world leaders are shifting their sense of blame for the ongoing conflict. Other countries, including Australia, Canada, Finland, Malta, and Portugal, have also announced their plans to recognize Palestine in the fall.

Another surprise move at the conference came from the 22 members of the Arab League, who for the first time unanimously called for Hamas to lay down its weapons, release all hostages, and end its rule of the Gaza Strip. Coupled with the U.K.’s announcement, the result of the conference is increased pressure by allies on each party to the conflict to return to the negotiating table. 

Popular sentiment may even be shifting within Israel. A recent TV segment on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza offered a rare glimpse of the human suffering that has been happening there over the last 22 months of war. As David E. Rosenberg reports, the report was “too graphic” for some viewers, but with the facts on the ground constantly challenged by Netanyahu’s government, Rosenberg writes that “Israelis may finally be prepared for more critical coverage.”

In the United States, opinion polls show that American views of Israel have turned more negative. And if Britain and France do join 147 other nations in recognizing Palestine as a state at the General Assembly, it will isolate the United States as the only permanent member of the U.N. Security Council that does not. U.S. President Donald Trump has acknowledged starvation as an issue that needs attention in Gaza but has not yet broken with Netanyahu. This Friday is the deadline for another war leader Trump has at times appeared reluctant to condemn, Russian President Vladimir Putin. That’s the date Trump has set for Russia to reach a deal with Ukraine if it wants to avoid further U.S. sanctions. If a deal can’t be reached, write Nicholas Fenton and Maria Snegovaya, the next round of sanctions should widen to include Russian civilian firms.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

On Our Radar

• War on expertise. On Friday, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because he said the numbers produced by her agency were “rigged” to damage him politically. During the Biden administration, McEntarfer served on the White House Council of Economic Advisors, formed in 1946 as an independent body of experts within the executive branch. FP’s Julian Zelizer recently explored that body’s consequential role in policy decisions—and why its politicization under Trump could prove so dangerous.
• Poland’s new president. Karol Nawrocki is inaugurated as Poland’s new president on Wednesday. The far-right candidate’s victory will have important implications internationally, writes Chatham House’s Armida van Rij. Nawrocki believes that good relations with Brussels, Berlin, and Paris are against Polish interests, and his victory does not bode well for Ukraine. Beyond specific policy issues, though, Nawrocki’s success was part of a global trend away from liberal democracy at the ballot box, van Rij argues.
• Revisiting WW2. This week marks the 80th anniversary of the dropping of atomic bombs by the U.S. on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Yet there is still no large American outpouring of grief or criticism or moral reckoning with the destruction of Tokyo, Spencer Cohen wrote in a 2022 review of the documentary Paper City. 

FP Live

The Future of European Defense

***This event is being rescheduled. Stay tuned for a new time.***

European members of NATO recently agreed to invest 5 percent of their GDPs on defense-related spending, spurring questions about how exactly that money should best be used. FP’s Ravi Agrawal will sit down with Jared Cohen, the president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs, to discuss how Europe can rearm—and the trade-offs that might entail. Register now and submit your questions ahead of the conversation. This discussion is part of a series of episodes brought to you by the Goldman Sachs Global Institute.

Is the West Turning Against Israel?

August 7 | 12 p.m. ET

As Britain, Canada, and France move to formally recognize Palestine, there is a growing sense that Western populations are trying to push Israel to confront a longer-term solution beyond the status quo in Gaza. But why now, and what impact will this shift have on Israeli policy? Where does the Trump administration fit in? FP’s Ravi Agrawal will speak with Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator. Register now and submit your questions ahead of the conversation.

Will Trump Shift the Balance in Ukraine?

On Demand

Russian and Ukrainian envoys ended their peace talks in Istanbul last month after only an hour. But while diplomacy may not be advancing, will geopolitics swing the conflict’s outcome? How will U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose “very significant” sanctions on Moscow impact Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision-making? FP’s Ravi Agrawal was joined in conversation by Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Stanford University academic. They discussed the battlefield state of play and the motivations guiding Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Watch on demand. 

FP Live: The Ask-Me-Anything Edition

On Demand

On a special ask-me-anything episode, FP Live takes stock of the first six months of the second Trump presidency and its global implications. Regular host Ravi Agrawal just returned from a trip to China and India—how do rising powers see the shifting global order? Taking questions from FP subscribers and viewers alike, he assessed the state of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the economic repercussions of tariffs, and the future of artificial intelligence. This is an episode you won’t want to miss. Watch on demand.

Exercise Your Mind

A cease-fire between Cambodia and Thailand came into effect early last week, ending the most recent conflict between the neighboring countries. How long did the fighting last?

(A) Five days

(B) One week

(C) 10 days

(D) Two weeks

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Test your knowledge with more quiz questions. 

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• Intelligence shake-up: The New York Times recently cited Foreign Policy in coverage of personnel changes within the intelligence community, including the reported decision not to appoint Tom Sylvester, the now-retired deputy director of CIA operations, to a senior role. Sylvester’s views on Ukraine and Europe are featured in Tim Weiner’s new book, The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century, which examines the agency’s evolving role in national security amid shifting political dynamics. Read an excerpt from the book here (free read).

Answer: A. The long-running border dispute can remain contained if Bangkok and Phnom Penh have regular contact to avoid miscommunication, Derek Grossman writes.