Japan’s Coffee Wars

Since early 2023, something has been brewing under the surface of Japan's coffee industry. A shift has begun. It began quietly, at the convenience stores. 7-Eleven, Lawson, and FamilyMart all began upgrading their coffee game. The machines got better. The beans improved. And before anyone could really stop to question it, we were paying 120 to 160 yen for a freshly brewed black caffeine kick from the convenience store.

It was quick, it was good enough, and suddenly, it was normal. The konbini became the new coffee stop for millions of us on the move. That was the turning point.

The first coffee war had officially begun.

This was the start of the "convenience store coffee war." High flavor, low cost, and unmatched accessibility changed the rules of the game. And I’ll admit it, I was all in.

Rising Bean Prices: A New Frontline

But now, things are changing again, and this time, I’m feeling it where it hurts the most... my wallet.

• Arabica futures have risen by over 70% since late 2024. In some cases, prices have doubled.

• Droughts in Brazil and floods in Southeast Asia have led to massive supply disruptions.

• Roasters and importers are passing these costs along, and I’m seeing café menus quietly bump up by 20–25%.

The days of great coffee for pocket change are coming to an end. I used to grab a coffee without a second thought. Now... I started to brew my own coffee at home.

Strategic Adjustments Across the Sector

This shift is hitting everyone:

• Convenience Chains: Even a 10- to 20-yen hike could drive some customers away. They’re trying bundle deals or launching premium options, but it’s a delicate balance.

• Specialty Cafés: They’re moving toward storytelling single-origin beans, sustainability, you know, the whole experience.

• Roasters and Importers: Risk management is the name of the game now. Futures contracts, diversified sourcing, and smarter blending.

• Consumers (like me): A coffee a day used to be a ritual. Now it's a budget line item I actually think about.

Daily Habit or Growing Luxury?

Coffee used to be cheap, easy, and everywhere. Now, it’s getting more expensive. I notice when prices go up. But to be honest, I rarely dislike a cup of coffee. I enjoy most of them, even the cheap ones. The only one I really can’t get behind is McDonald’s coffee.

Not everyone drinks coffee the same way. Some just want a quick boost on the way to work. Others want to sit, relax, and enjoy the taste.

But for all of us, the cost is going up. So what now?

Will we keep buying our daily coffee no matter the price? Will we start making it at home? Or will we think differently about what coffee means to us?

I’m already changing how I drink mine. What about you?

🔗https://www.reuters.com/business/core-inflation-japans-capital-slows-stays-above-boj-target-2025-06-26/

🔗https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/15/extreme-weather-likely-to-cause-further-food-price-volatility-analysts-say

🔗https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-prices-futures-soaring-climate-change-drought-bitter-beans-flavor-2025-2

🔗https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazils-coffee-farmers-turn-costly-irrigation-quench-global-demand-brew-2025-03-31

🔗https://www.businessinsider.com/raised-coffee-prices-expect-other-cafes-shops-will-too-2025-4

🔗https://www.tastingtable.com/1457793/japan-convenience-stores-coffee-wars/