Jobs Friday | July 2025
June Jobs Report
Happy Thursday (yes, Thursday)! With the Fourth of July holiday falling on a Friday, this month’s employment report is dropping a day early, so we’re coming to you a little ahead of schedule, too.
Here are a few key things to keep in mind:
U.S. markets close early today at 1:00 PM EST and will be closed tomorrow for the holiday.
The 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29.
And in true July 4th fashion, Joey Chestnut will aim to reclaim his hot dog-eating crown at noon on Friday.
It’s always nice to start a long weekend hearing that favorite phrase, “stronger than expected,” which never gets old. Once again, the economy surpassed expectations, adding 147,000 jobs in June.
The unemployment rate was, candidly, the most surprising news. Most anticipated a slight increase to 4.3% or for it to remain unchanged, but it dropped to 4.1%. More on that below.
As we reach the mid-year mark, the economy continues to exhibit consistent signs of stability. Inflation has eased, but markets remain vigilant to see if the Fed will adjust rates. Businesses still lack a clear path beyond the current tariff pause, and uncertainty remains around whether any extension could occur. Following a quiet Q2 in M&A activity, there’s cautious optimism that capital spending will pick up in the early second half of the year.
The employment market remains stable. While job growth has decelerated compared to prior years, we’re still operating in a balanced employment environment. Employers are hiring (albeit selectively), wage growth remains promising, and the labor participation rate has improved. We believe all these factors contributed to the June drop in unemployment. That said, selective hiring is evident: U.S. private sector businesses posted the smallest job gains since October 2024.
We’re not sure if the plane has come to a complete stop on a soft landing, but most agree we’re still on track!
From the entire CSP team, we wish you a safe and happy Fourth of July holiday!
What we're reading
HR leaders think soft skills are more important than ever—just don’t call them ‘soft’ via HR Brew
Job openings hit highest level since November 2024 via Yahoo! Finance
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