On the Long Trail of the Vaca Muerta – A Wind of Change Is Rising in Argentina
Earlier this week, Bill Von Gonten gave an excellent online presentation titled "This Cow Isn’t Dead," providing an in-depth look at Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale. The presentation reinforced the view that Vaca Muerta ranks among the premier shale plays globally, although development has been relatively slow compared to U.S. benchmarks.
A World-Class Resource
The Vaca Muerta was deposited in a marine environment during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous periods along the Andean margin. It covers a large area, offers exceptional thickness of up to 1,000 meters, and contains all maturities of hydrocarbons, from dry gas in the west to black oil in the east. Drilling has focused primarily on the oil window, where existing infrastructure and local demand conditions are more favorable.
Resource estimates in place are competitive with, or exceed, premier U.S. shale basins. Oil window volumes are estimated at 100 to 200 million barrels per section, comparable to the Wolfcamp in the Midland Basin. In the gas window, resource in place estimates range from 500 to 1,500 billion cubic feet per section, far exceeding values typical of the Marcellus. In terms of resource richness, it is undoubtedly among the best plays globally.
Development Pace and Production Growth
Horizontal drilling in Vaca Muerta began around 2010, but early wells were largely unsuccessful. Full-field development started in 2013. Today, approximately 2,000 wells are producing, with current output reported at 467,000 barrels of oil per day and 2.3 billion cubic feet per day of gas. Thirty-three rigs are active, and roughly 200 new wells are drilled each year.
The measured pace of development has allowed operators to learn and adapt. Infrastructure constraints, particularly for natural gas transportation and processing, continue to limit the growth potential. Oil development has advanced more quickly due to easier market access.
Von Gonten noted in an earlier talk that if Vaca Muerta were located in North America and supported by comparable infrastructure and capital access, it could support 200 active rigs and deliver 5–6 million barrels per day of production. Some estimates suggest that with ongoing investment, Vaca Muerta could contribute economic output on par with Argentina’s agricultural sector by 2030.
The Critical Role of Geomechanics
Von Gonten emphasized three key factors affecting shale performance: storage capacity, flow capacity, and geomechanics. The Vaca Muerta excels at storage and flow capacity, with high porosity (~10%), tremendous thickness, and high pore pressure (~0.9 psi/ft); clay content is also favorably low. The primary technical challenge is geomechanical. In some parts of the basin, fracture propagation pressures exceed the overburden stress, increasing the risk of creating horizontal rather than vertical fractures. Rock fabric variability – including volcanic ash beds – further complicates fracture design.
Optimizing completions requires real-time monitoring and the ability to adjust treatment design dynamically along the wellbore. Wells have typically averaged around 1,500 barrels per day on a 30-day basis, but better fracture designs are creating 3,000-meter lateral wells that achieve cumulative oil production of approximately 300,000 barrels in the first 12 months.
Despite the technical challenges and measured pace of development, the Vaca Muerta remains one of the most compelling growth opportunities in the global energy sector. With continued improvements in infrastructure, completion practices, and market access, the basin has the potential to transform Argentina into a major oil and gas exporter. The work underway today is laying the foundation for sustained long-term impact.
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