MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 32, 2025.
At the end of the 32nd week, the global bunker indices MABUX showed a consistent downward trend, disregarding potential growth factors such as the possible introduction of secondary sanctions or import duties by the United States. The 380 HSFO index declined by 8.02 USD, dropping from 476.38 USD/MT last week to 468.36 USD/MT. The VLSFO index also decreased, falling by 10.65 USD from 564.14 USD/MT to 553.49 USD/MT. The MGO index experienced the sharpest decline, losing 25.83 USD and settling at 766.51 USD/MT compared to 792.34 USD/MT the previous week. At the time of writing, the global bunker market was showing early signs of an upward correction, suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its moderate decline, dropping by $2.63 from $87.76 last week to $85.13. It remained confidently below the psychological threshold of $100.00, known as the SS breakeven level. The weekly average of the index also fell by $2.17. In Rotterdam, the SS spread declined by a further $5.00, from $63.00 to $58.00, with the weekly average in the port down by $3.16. In Singapore, the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO narrowed by $1.00, from $99.00 last week to $98.00, also slipping below the $100.00 mark. The port’s weekly average dropped by $0.84. This ongoing decline in SS spread indices reflects a renewed downward trend in the global bunker market. Under current conditions, the use of conventional VLSFO fuel remains more cost-effective than the HSFO plus scrubber combination. Further details can be found in the Differentials section of mabux.com.
Floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) terminals are rapidly gaining momentum in the global LNG market, with capacity expected to triple by 2030, according to Rystad Energy. Once limited by technical and operational challenges, FLNG terminals now boast utilisation rates comparable to onshore facilities, marking a significant leap in reliability and performance. Driven by rising LNG demand and the increasing viability of smaller gas fields, FLNG is emerging as a faster, more flexible, and cost-effective solution that can better respond to shifting market dynamics. Rystad Energy projects global FLNG capacity to reach 42 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030 and 55 mtpa by 2035—nearly quadrupling from 14.1 mtpa in 2024. FLNG terminals commissioned before 2024 recorded average utilisation rates of 86.5% in 2024 and 76% in 2025, closely mirroring the performance of their onshore counterparts.
As of August 5, European regional gas storage facilities were 69.96% full—an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous week, but 1.37% below the level recorded at the beginning of the year (71.33%). This indicates that current storage levels have nearly returned to early-year figures, and the process of replenishing gas reserves continues. By the end of the 32nd week, the European TTF gas benchmark recorded a modest increase of 0.303 euro/MWh, rising to 34.406 euro/MWh from 34.103 euro/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) rose by USD 16 over the week, reaching USD 768/MT, up from USD 752/MT the previous week. Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel shifted back in favor of conventional fuel. As of August 5, LNG was USD 4 more expensive than MGO LS, compared to a USD 40 advantage for LNG the week before. On that day, MGO LS was priced at USD 764/MT in Sines. More detailed insights are available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
At the end of the 32nd week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—showed the following trends in average weekly bunker prices across the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. The MDI increased by 13 points in Rotterdam and by 7 points in Houston, while values in Singapore and Fujairah remained unchanged. Fujairah’s MDI continues to hold steady near the benchmark level of $100.00.
• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam shifted back into the undervalued zone, joining the other ports which were already undervalued. The average weekly undervaluation deepened, with MDI rising by 16 points in Rotterdam, 1 point in Singapore, 4 points in Fujairah, and 10 points in Houston. Houston’s MDI approached the $100.00 threshold.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam remained the only overvalued port, although its MDI declined by 3 points. The other ports remained undervalued: MDI values fell by 15 points in Singapore and 17 points in Fujairah, while Houston recorded a modest increase of 1 point. Rotterdam’s MDI moved closer to achieving 100% correlation between MBP and DBP, while Fujairah’s MDI remains consistently above the $100.00 mark.
Overall, the distribution of overvalued and undervalued ports continues to shift toward increased undervaluation, with only one overvalued port remaining in the MGO LS segment (Rotterdam). Based on current dynamics, we expect the trend of bunker fuel undervaluation to persist into the coming week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on the website mabux.com.
According to Bureau Veritas VeriFuel, the proportion of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) samples with catalytic fines content exceeding 30 mg/kg increased significantly from 30.4% in the first quarter to 40.5% in the second quarter of 2025. High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) also saw a rise, with off-spec samples increasing from 19.2% to 26.7% over the same period. On a global scale, 1.4% of VLSFO samples tested were off-spec in the second quarter, showing a slight improvement compared to 1.8% in the first quarter. However, the average viscosity of VLSFO rose noticeably in key bunkering regions. In the ARA region, viscosity averaged 229 cSt in Q2, compared to 194 cSt in Q1 and 184 cSt in Q4 2024. In Fujairah, the average climbed to 264 cSt from 162 cSt in Q1 and 138 cSt in Q4 2024. Singapore also experienced a rise, with average viscosity reaching 158 cSt in Q2 2025, up from 131 cSt in Q1 and 115 cSt in Q4 2024. While the global average of off-spec VLSFO samples due to sediment remained relatively stable at 14.3% in Q2, down slightly from 14.4% in Q1, certain ports experienced sharp increases. In the ARA region, sediment-related off-spec rates surged to 54.5% in Q2, compared with 43.1% in Q1 and 21.8% in Q4 2024. At Skagen, the figure reached 84.6%, up from 74.4% in Q1 and 70.0% in Q4 of the previous year. When looking at all VLSFO off-spec cases, regardless of cause, the second-quarter average at ARA rose to 6.7% from 3.1% in the first quarter. Piraeus saw a sharp rise to 12.5% from 3.8%, while Port Louis reported 11.4%, up from 5.4%. Meanwhile, for DMA 0.10%, the global average off-spec rate increased slightly to 2.3% in Q2 2025, compared to 2.2% in Q1.
We believe that a continued downward trend in the global bunker market is unlikely. In the coming week, bunker indices are expected to enter a phase of moderate upward correction, accompanied by short-term, multidirectional fluctuations.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX