Navigating Changes Amid Technological Disruptions and Global Uncertainty

In my recent travels between speaking at a NATO exercise and analyzing emerging security threats, I've been reflecting on a critical question: How do we effectively adapt to the accelerating pace of change in our world? The events of the past few weeks have only reinforced my conviction that we need positive #ChangeAgents more than ever before.

Accelerating Need for Positive #ChangeAgents

Several elements of our world feel like they are transforming at an unprecedented rate. Technologies that seemed like science fiction just a few years ago are now reshaping what's possible for countries, companies, and communities. This isn't just about digital transformation -- it includes fundamental shifts in how power is distributed, how risks emerge, and how opportunities are created.

Take the recent developments in drone technology. What was once considered a niche military capability has evolved into a transformative force that's reshaping battlefield dynamics. Ukraine's "Operation Spider's Web," which reportedly took 18 months to prepare and involved smuggling scores of small drones into Russia, demonstrates how even nations with limited resources can project power in new ways. The operation's reported $7 billion in damage represents not just a tactical success but a strategic shift in how warfare can be conducted.

Similarly, in the agricultural sector, we're seeing how technology is creating both new vulnerabilities and new opportunities. The recent case of Chinese nationals allegedly attempting to smuggle the fungus Fusarium graminearum -- a pathogen capable of devastating wheat, barley, maize, and rice crops -- highlights how biological threats can cross borders in ways we haven't fully prepared for.

In this environment, we need leaders who can not only respond to change but actively shape it in positive directions. These #ChangeAgents must be able to see around corners, anticipate emerging threats and opportunities, and help organizations adapt before crisis strikes.

The urgency of this need is further underscored by the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer findings, which reveal a society increasingly fractured by grievance and fear. In this environment, we must resist the temptation to amplify anxiety-producing messages that only deepen divisions and paralyze action.

Instead, we need to cultivate problem solvers, not problem holders or vocal voyeurs to potential apocalypses.

As positive #ChangeAgents, our responsibility is to advance solutions and foster the conviction that we will get through these challenges together. This means acknowledging risks honestly while simultaneously highlighting pathways forward. It means creating spaces where innovation can flourish and where diverse perspectives can contribute to resilient solutions.

Most importantly, it means modeling the optimism and agency that we wish to see in our organizations and communities. The challenges we face are real, but they're not insurmountable -- and by working together as positive #ChangeAgents, we can transform these challenges into opportunities for meaningful progress.

The Persistent Challenge of Status Quo Resistance

One of the most consistent patterns I've observed throughout my career is how fiercely we humans resist change, often wanting to maintain an earlier potentially outdated way of thinking -- even when evidence for its necessity is overwhelming. This resistance isn't just a matter of personal preference; it's often institutionalized in our organizations and decision-making processes.

In a recent report that I helped author, "Strategic Sufficiency: Mapping DoD Small Drone Requirements to Potential Warfighter Needs in the Indo-Pacific," the report examined how small, warfighter-portable unmanned systems have fundamentally transformed modern warfare. These systems enable distributed operations, overwhelm adversary defenses through mass deployment, and provide persistent surveillance and precision strike capabilities at a fraction of the cost of traditional platforms.

Yet as I noted in my OODA Loop post describing the report: Yet as recent as three days ago, I was encountering significant pushback from parts of the U.S. Department of Defense and the defense industrial base questioning whether small drones would ever be effective in combat scenarios. This resistance persists despite mounting evidence to the contrary. My biggest concern is that we risk a 'Pearl Harbor'-like event if we don't recognize the speed of which drone and drone-swarm technologies, even in comms-denied environments and environments with large distances and vast amounts of ocean like the Pacific.

This resistance to acknowledging changing realities isn't new. In 1932, Rear Admiral Harry E. Yarnell demonstrated the vulnerability of Pearl Harbor to aerial attacks in a naval exercise -- nine years before the actual attack occurred. His findings were largely dismissed. We cannot afford to repeat such mistakes in an era where technological change is accelerating exponentially.

The challenge isn't just technological -- it's psychological and organizational. We tend to dismiss possibilities until they become realities, at which point it's often too late to develop an effective response. This is why we need leaders who can help organizations overcome this natural resistance and adapt proactively rather than reactively.

Navigating an Era of Intentional and Unintentional Risks

New technologies have given individuals and small groups capabilities that used to be near impossible. This means lots of opportunities, as well as heightened risks -- both intentional and unintentional. About seven years ago, a group of us -- including Dr. Molly Jahn, Dr. Peter Brooks, and myself -- raised concerns to DARPA and DoD that risks to agriculture and the food supply from biological agents represented potentially a significant issue. Despite our efforts to demonstrate these risks, there was resistance and slowness from those who didn't believe biological risks posed a real threat to agriculture.

Like it or not, we are living in times of gray zone conflict in terms of geopolitical conflict and brinkmanship. Just a few days ago, I sent an email questioning why DARPA is only now pursuing some of the items that Molly, Peter, and I discussed over seven years ago. Then, two days later, the recent case of Chinese nationals allegedly attempting to smuggle dangerous biological pathogens made the news. Here's hoping that finally we will see the DoD take these threats seriously.

I share this to raise a pattern we seem to be experiencing over the last decade or so -- namely of institutions and groups of people dismissing risks until they materialize.

I submit this resistance and dismissal of the changing world is precisely why we need positive #ChangeAgents who can help organizations adapt. These leaders must be able to:

1. Identify and communicate emerging risks before they become crises

2. Develop and implement adaptive strategies both pre-crisis and often times *during* an unfolding crisis that's happening

3. Build new ways of providing solutions to tackle these risks while also advancing inter-organizational resilience to navigate uncertainty

Moreover, this isn't just about avoiding negative outcomes -- it's about seizing new opportunities. The same technological changes that create new risks also open up new possibilities for positive impact. For example, the drone technologies that are transforming warfare also have applications in agriculture, environmental monitoring, and disaster response.

We need faster decision cycles and more adaptive organizational responses to address emerging security challenges. The key is developing the capacity to adapt quickly and effectively. This means creating organizations that can:

• Accelerate organizational OODA loops (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)

• Embrace experimentation and learning across teams, and encourage seeing problems from multiple perspectives

• Distribute decision-making authority to the edge instead of requiring top-down control

Building Trust in an Era of Anxiety

In an era where the Edelman Trust Barometer shows a growing "crisis of grievance" with 61% of people expressing moderate to high levels of discontent, it's important to find solutions that give people agency even amid what feels like an increasingly turbulent world.

We need to to overcome general anxiety, perceived helplessness, and even anger as well as grievances amidst the changing world. This isn't to say we should be naive to the changing world, however we can balance pragmatic assessment with emphasis on choice, entrepreneurship, and "we will get through this via innovation". Because that's how we humans always have navigated turbulent times: grit, positive perseverance, and determined creativity to go past the status quo despite headwinds.

The changing world, and the disrupts associated with these changes, are significant, yet they're definitely ones we can navigate through together. By embracing the role of positive #ChangeAgents, we can help our organizations and communities survive and more importantly *thrive* in this era of unprecedented change. The future can be -- and should be -- something we create together. Together we can make it a worthwhile one.