The (near) Future of Mobility

“Mobility - the ability to move or be moved freely and easily”

I recently had the opportunity to be a panelist at a very interesting “Future of Mobility” event hosted by the German Ambassador to Thailand in Bangkok.

The participants were wide and varied but all had a common interest – where are cities going in terms of mobility, with a focus on the congestion experienced in Bangkok and other major South East Asian cities such as Manila, Jakarta and to a lesser extent Kuala Lumpur.

We have seen, and will continue to see, an increasing percentage of the population migrating to cities (55% of the global population now live in cities with projections for 2050 ranging between 66 and 75% - Asia has the second fastest growth rate surpass only by aAfrica ) with the related impact on congestion, as people travel into the city centers for work or recreation. However, the development of the infrastructure has not kept pace with the increased volume of traffic resulting in bottlenecks, serious delays and frustration, not to mention worsening pollution.

Electrification of various modes of transport was a topic discussed at some length and, whilst this would help to ease the pollution problem, it does nothing to ease the congestion problem. Additionally, the infrastructure would need to be updated to support the charging of electric vehicles – not an insurmountable task given the availability of street lights as power sources (see what SAP has done with partners in Germany – Smart Light? Smart City!) – but still a daunting one.

Autonomous vehicles are much discussed and in the news and were another interesting topic. But would this make a huge difference? If we could replace every vehicle on the roads with an autonomous one the situation may, in fact, get worse. For one, autonomous vehicles, we could safely assume, would follow the traffic rules, adhere to traffic lanes and generally be more cautious. Motorcycles, for example, wouldn’t ride between cars hence adding to the congestion problem not easing it. With autonomous vehicles avoiding hitting pedestrians (hopefully) jaywalkers may well compound the problem, bullying their way across roads!

In addition, adoption is an issue. Whilst often in the news, autonomous vehicles don’t have a great reputation at the moment. Accidents and deaths aren’t great selling points and tend to dent (no pun intended) ones’ trust. Autonomous vehicles are not exactly, widely commercially available, and there are also the very many petrol heads who actually enjoy driving, hence are not likely customers.

The answer is a simple one – in theory at least. Assuming the volume of people (and goods) travelling in and out of the city only increases, and the infrastructure does not keep pace, we need to have fewer vehicles on the roads traveling over a longer time frame.

In terms of time frames, the ‘flattening’ of peak hours is a start. Businesses (where) possible can adopt flexible working hours to enable their employees to travel in and out earlier or later. Public transport companies in some cities have successfully spread the load by offering commuters reduced fares to travel off peaks (this only really works if they can work flexible hours).

On the subject of public transport, if we look at cities with exceptional metro, bus and taxi services, Singapore a prime example, we see less of a congestion problem. Where public transport systems are not reliable and convenient commuters will lean towards private transport. Providers of these public services have a big role to play.

When it comes to private transport there is a significant opportunity to positively contribute to the reduction in traffic volumes by embracing ride-sharing schemes. Take a look at the number of vehicles with only one occupant on your next commute and it makes so much sense. These are growing in popularity with Grab and Wunder extending these services, subject to regulatory authority’s restrictions, in some countries.

Cycling and personal mobility devices, such as electric scooters, will also help to ease the problem but, again, the infrastructure need to provide safe passage, and riders would look for access to shower facilities at their destinations given our climate.

Data too will play a significant role with sensors and cameras recording traffic movements and volumes. The old adage “if we can’t measure it we can’t manage” it comes to mind. The issue today is that we are measuring so much that it is becoming unmanageable. That is where machine learning and artificial intelligence come in.

Analysis of all this data, as well as other ‘Big data’ such as weather information and public transport availability, coupled with predictive analytics and scenario modeling, enables cities to plan for scheduled events, and mitigate congestions for unplanned events. Furthermore, commuters can be kept informed or even prompted, in the moment and personalized, to use alternative modes of transport or even opt to delay traveling. An example of this is some work we have done in Nanjing – Keeping the Megacity Flowing.

Another often overlooked topic is the one of education. With all due respect, traffic rules are seen as more of a guideline in much of South East Asia (and many other places) and until such time as the general population respects traffic rules and signals, much of the inner cities congestion problems simply will not go away. It falls to governments and educational establishments to ensure that the commuters of tomorrow, if not today, are equipped with the knowledge and information to make them better road and public transport users. It falls to local authorities to ensure that rules are enforced and obeyed in a consistent and fair manner.

Going back to the infrastructure, it is of course important that cities and governments continue to work to improve all infrastructure and services upon which the various modes of transport depend, with a constant eye on sustainability.

In this, the digital and mobile age, information, direction and instruction can be conveyed to us in real time, as circumstances change, and we can respond accordingly – in short with the capabilities of the internet of things, machine learning, advanced analytics and mobility, not to forget another much-hyped technology, blockchain, and with cooperation and co-innovation across the mobility eco-system much can be done for the near future of mobility.