Net Zero is Impossible

Disclaimer: I am an employee of GitLab. The views and opinions expressed in this post are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of my employer.

Over the last year I have done some serious research, bordering on obsession, about achieving Net Zero goals. The more I looked, the more I dug in, the more frustration I started to feel. Not about the state we are in, but the general lack of understanding across a broad spectrum of experts, commentators, scientists, and politicians. My conclusion: It’s impossible. Following a summary of what I found.

Rising Energy Demand and Net Zero Goals in Major Economies

The United States, Europe, and China have pledged to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by mid-century—2050 for the US and Europe, 2060 for China. These regions consume enormous amounts of energy: the US uses approximately 105 exajoules (EJ) annually, Europe 60 EJ, and China 160 EJ. Currently, 80-85% of this energy comes from fossil fuels.

Despite trillions invested in renewable energy over decades, the global energy mix remains 84% dependent on hydrocarbons—only marginally lower than 20 years ago. Wind and solar provide less than 5% of world energy, while electric vehicles offset under 0.5% of oil use.

Achieving Net Zero requires transforming not just electricity generation but all energy uses: transportation, heating, and industry. With global energy demand growing 1-2% annually, any transition must replace existing fossil infrastructure while meeting increased consumption. Experts including Mark P. Mills, Steven Koonin, Michael Shellenberger and Bjørn Lomborg warn that current policies underestimate the magnitude of this challenge.

Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Constraints

The shift from fuel-based to materials-based energy systems demands unprecedented mineral extraction. Renewable technologies require far more materials than fossil fuel equivalents. Building wind or solar farms requires ten times the bulk materials (steel, concrete, glass) of comparable natural gas plants.

The International Energy Agency reports that replacing fossil fuel power with renewables requires 300% more copper, 4,200% more lithium, 2,500% more graphite, 1,900% more nickel, and 700% more rare earth elements. Electric vehicles similarly require vastly more minerals than conventional cars.

Current and planned global mining capacity cannot meet projected demand for a Net Zero transition. Supply chains face bottlenecks at every stage, from extraction (concentrated in few countries) to processing (dominated by China for lithium and rare earths). New mines typically require 10+ years for permitting, and mining itself carries environmental impacts. Without massive investment in extraction and recycling, material shortages could derail climate goals.

Infrastructure Scale Requirements

The physical scale of renewable infrastructure needed to replace fossil fuels is staggering. A 100 MW natural gas plant occupies a few acres and runs continuously. Replacing its output requires at least 200 MW of wind or solar capacity plus substantial battery storage, due to intermittency. This translates to approximately 20 large wind turbines spread across 10 square miles, plus thousands of tons of batteries.

Nationally, replacing half of US fossil energy (40 EJ annually) would require installing hundreds of thousands of wind turbines or billions of solar panels, alongside massive storage facilities. The IEA's Net Zero 2050 roadmap calls for expanding global renewable capacity 15-fold within 20 years—triple the fastest infrastructure expansion in history.

This challenge includes replacing aging infrastructure, as wind turbines and solar panels last only 20-30 years. Electrifying transportation and heating will further increase power demand, requiring even more generation capacity.

Timeline and Construction Constraints

Energy infrastructure development is inherently slow. Offshore wind farms take 5-10 years from planning to operation. High-voltage transmission lines face lengthy permitting and local opposition. Nuclear plants require 5-10+ years for construction in Western countries.

Current renewable deployment, while at record levels, falls far short of Net Zero requirements. The world adds 50-100 GW of wind capacity annually, but achieving climate goals requires several times this rate. Europe's post-2022 efforts to reduce Russian gas dependence illustrate these constraints—despite emergency measures, renewable targets increased only marginally.

Replacing half of fossil-fueled infrastructure by 2050 means retiring or converting billions of devices ahead of schedule. Historical energy transitions (wood to coal, coal to oil) took many decades. Achieving similar change in 25 years would require wartime-level industrial mobilization.

Nuclear Energy's Potential Role

Nuclear power offers a high-density, low-carbon alternative to renewables' land-intensive approach. A single 1 GW reactor generates 8-9 TWh annually on 1-1.5 square miles, while equivalent wind capacity requires 260-360 square miles. Nuclear plants need 17 times less cement and steel per unit of energy than solar installations.

However, replacing 50% of US fossil energy with nuclear would require building over 1,000 new reactors in 25 years—the US currently operates fewer than 100. Even China's ambitious program (150 reactors by 2035) represents only a fraction of what full decarbonization demands.

Nuclear faces high capital costs, long construction times, and public acceptance challenges. Yet many experts argue that achieving Net Zero without substantial nuclear expansion is unrealistic, as demonstrated by France's low-carbon grid compared to Germany's renewable-heavy but higher-emission system.

Crude Oil Refining and the Challenge of Finding Replacements

When a 42-gallon (159-liter) barrel of crude oil is refined, it yields various petroleum products. Globally, over 85% becomes fuel for transportation and heating. While exact outputs vary by crude type and regional demand, the following breakdown shows typical petroleum products and their uses:

Major Petroleum Products from a Barrel of Crude Oil

Transportation Fuels (76%)

• Gasoline (43%): The largest single product, gasoline powers cars, motorcycles, light trucks, boats, and small engines. Its dominance in personal and commercial transportation makes it critical for global mobility. While often blended with ethanol, gasoline remains predominantly petroleum-derived.

• Diesel (27%): This heavier distillate fuels compression-ignition engines in trucks, buses, trains, agricultural machinery, and construction equipment. Its high energy density and efficiency make it essential for freight transport and heavy-duty applications. A similar grade, heating oil, warms homes in colder climates.

• Jet Fuel/Kerosene (6%): High-grade kerosene powers commercial airliners, cargo planes, and military jets. Designed to burn cleanly at high altitudes across wide temperature ranges, kerosene also serves household heating, lighting, and cooking needs in some regions.

Industrial and Marine Fuels (7%)

• Heavy Fuel Oil (5%): This thick, viscous residue primarily powers ship engines as bunker fuel in international shipping. Some power plants and industrial boilers also burn it for electricity generation or steam heating, though environmental concerns are reducing its use.

• Liquefied Petroleum Gases - LPG (2%): Propane and butane, stored under pressure as liquids, fuel cooking and heating in homes without natural gas pipelines. LPG also powers some vehicles as autogas and serves as petrochemical feedstock for plastics and synthetic rubber production.

Infrastructure and Consumer Products (17%)

• Asphalt/Bitumen (4%): This semi-solid residue binds with gravel to pave roads, highways, and parking lots. Its water-resistant properties make it valuable for roofing materials and waterproofing applications.

• Other Products (13%): This diverse category includes: Petrochemical feedstocks: Naphtha and other compounds become plastics, synthetic fibers, fertilizers, and detergents. Lubricants: Engine oils and industrial greases reduce friction in machinery. Specialty products: Paraffin wax for candles and cosmetics, petroleum coke for industrial fuel, and various solvents

The Second-Order Challenge

While petroleum products primarily provide energy for transportation and heating, approximately 10% of each barrel supplies raw materials for plastics, textiles, cosmetics, and countless everyday items. This integration of petroleum into virtually every aspect of modern life creates a significant challenge: reducing oil consumption requires not just alternative fuels, but replacement materials for thousands of products.

Finding these replacements presents second-order problems that society must address. Alternative materials may require more energy to produce, potentially increasing carbon emissions. The transition away from petroleum demands comprehensive solutions that consider both direct fuel replacement and the complex web of petroleum-derived products that shape our modern lifestyle.

Conclusion: Assessing Net Zero Feasibility

Transitioning major economies to Net Zero by 2050 represents an unprecedented challenge. The required scale—essentially rebuilding global energy infrastructure in 25 years—faces fundamental constraints in physics, engineering, and economics.

Expert assessments reveal sobering realities. Material requirements for renewable buildout exceed global mining capacity. Infrastructure deployment must proceed at historically unprecedented rates. The intermittency problem demands vast storage solutions not yet proven at scale.

Different experts propose varying responses. Lomborg advocates focusing on R&D for breakthrough technologies rather than costly deployment of current solutions. Shellenberger emphasizes nuclear power and pragmatic use of fossil fuels with carbon capture. Mills warns against "magical thinking" that ignores physical and economic limits.

Achieving even 50% fossil fuel replacement by 2050 will require extraordinary efforts: massive renewable deployment, nuclear renaissance, modernized grids, breakthrough storage technologies, expanded mining operations, increased research in material sciences to discover replacement products, and an unlimited skilled labor force. Success demands honest acknowledgment of challenges, realistic timelines accounting for permitting and construction constraints, and contingency planning for likely setbacks.

The consensus among cited experts is clear: while Net Zero by 2050 remains technically conceivable, the path is extremely narrow. Given the various priorities that countries must address, meeting climate goals may prove challenging or flat out impossible.

Sources: The analysis above integrates data and findings from numerous expert assessments, including the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 report, USAFacts (https://usafacts.org, Just the Facts About US Energy Use, Production, and Environmental Impact), Mark P. Mills’ studies on the energy transition reality check (media4.manhattan-institute.org), Michael Shellenberger’s congressional testimony on renewables vs. nuclear land use (congress.gov, congress.gov), Bjørn Lomborg’s cost-benefit evaluations (lomborg.com), and Steven E. Koonin’s perspective on climate and energy realism (hoover.org), breakthroughfuel.com, VVC Resources, Energy Education, among others, as cited throughout. These sources underscore the consensus that the scope of change required is massive and the path to Net Zero, while technically conceivable, is narrow and steep under current conditions. The next five years (and the viability of emerging technologies) will be critical in determining whether a 2050 Net Zero outcome is within reach or if it remains a well-intentioned but delayed goal.