New Inflection Point for the Conference Business

With the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, conference business operators face yet another set of existential decisions. Is now the time to commit to—and invest in— hosting in-person events in 2021? To make venue and speaker financial commitments for this year? To begin publicizing and extending invitations to 2021 events?

To get a handle on these questions, start with the assumption that people who are not yet vaccinated are unlikely to attend in-person conferences. Who wants to risk getting sick in the final months of the virus? If you’re in the conference business, your in-person target audience for 2021 will effectively be limited to the vaccinated.

The ranks of the vaccinated should grow quickly, though not as fast as some expect. According to White House coronavirus czar Admiral Brett Giroir, “By the end of June, any American who wants a vaccine should be able to get one.” Unfortunately, that projection (repeated as recently as December 27th) already looks unrealistic. “Operation Warp Speed” hype notwithstanding, it’s clear now that fewer than 3 million doses will be injected in December, a nearly ten-fold shortfall versus HHS Secretary Alex Azar’s December 3rd announcement by that 20 million doses would be administered before year-end. Yes, December has been a shakeout period and the pace should accelerate, but it also seems likely that additional delays and unanticipated problems will arise. 

With a U.S. adult (18+) population of 250 million, and two shots needed per adult, vaccinating all adult Americans would require half a billion shots. To factor in the “those who want one” caveat, reduce that by the 35% of the population recent polls say are “vaccine skeptics”: meaning that 325 million injections will needed by June to deliver on the promise of serving “any American who wants a vaccine”. How does that number square with the Biden Administration’s announced goal of 100 million vaccinations administered in his first 100 days? It doesn’t, unless you believe that more than 200 million shots will be given in May (the first 100 days end on April 29). The numbers just don’t add up.

A more plausible forecast was issued in late November by Goldman Sachs economists Daan Struyven and Sid Bhushan projecting that “the vaccination rate is set to exceed 70% in the autumn” in the developed world, a figure that approaches the lower end of the herd immunity range cited recently by Dr. Anthony Fauci and others. This prediction is cause for some optimism on the viability of Fall, 2021, events especially when combined with data from other sources. In a November survey by travel insurance provider Allianz Partners, the majority of its customers (58 percent; up six points from a spring survey) responded that a proven vaccine would make them feel safe again to travel.

That said, one particularly vexing issue for conference organizers is the unanswered question of whether those who are vaccinated will remain capable of spreading the disease. If so, gatherings of the vaccinated could still lead to infectious spread. Hosting “superspreader events” is a dubious strategy, a point underscored by the results of the US Presidential election, and this question sits like a trapped door under 2021 plans for in-person conferences. In addition to raising reputational and liability risks, it’s a question likely to affect state and local event regulations. We’d love to believe that once most people are vaccinated life will return to “normal,” but if the vaccinated can still spread the disease event size restrictions will probably linger until the higher bar of herd immunity has actually been achieved.

Another issue that can be expected to bedevil 2021 conference organizers is the likelihood that invitees will be reluctant to commit quickly to attending in-person events. Unless you’re a health care professional, a nursing home dweller, or an essential front-line worker, you have no idea when you’ll be vaccinated and low expectations that it will be anytime soon. The likelihood that you’ll commit cash to non-refundable travel or conference fees remains low. This could be a real problem for conference organizers, for whom early commitments can be important to planning space commitments, booking hotel room blocks, generating cash, getting momentum behind sponsorship sales, and persuading prospective speakers that the event will be worth their time.

Adding all this up, it’s clear that launching in-person events in the first half of 2020 remains inadvisable; but as the year progresses and the vaccination curve rises opportunities will emerge. Those who can wait to make event hosting commitments should do so, but if you fall into one of the following categories you’ll want to move now:

1.      You see first mover advantages. You believe there is strong pent-up demand for in-person events and are confident that those who are poised and ready to meet the demand later this year will win big. Ideally, you have competitive advantages that increase your odds of success, such as a strong brand, a dedicated membership base, and the financial wherewithal to weather a possible postponement or cancellation.

2.      You’re holding legacy venue contracts that make the costs of NOT going forward high. Those in this category (mostly those who postponed 2020 events, and some that planned 2021 events far in advance) should do everything possible to mitigate financial exposure by carefully watching progress payment and cancellation fee schedules. You should also consider going with liberal cancellation policies to help attract attendees, utilize “early bird” discounts, and try to enter into a deliberate dialogue with your prospective attendees (such as by adding a “I’m interested, but cannot commit yet” option to your registration forms). 

3.      Your business model requires in-person events. For some, including membership organizations and trade show hosts for whom in-person events are the core deliverable, there is little choice. If you are to meet the needs of your members and customers, you assume the risks and charge forward.  

While trying times and tough decisions continue for those who are in the conference business, brighter days are ahead. The long winter of COVID hibernation reminds most of us of how much we love face-to-face human interaction, crave the serendipity of random encounters by the fruit-stick table, and even miss learning about the latest “paradigm shift” from a renowned guru. Before long we’ll have a nice new icebreaker: which vaccine did you get?