New Research Shows SAT®/ACT® Scores are the Best Predictor of College Success

The role of standardized tests in college admissions has been debated for decades—long before the COVID-19 pandemic led colleges across the nation to adopt test-optional admission policies. Now, new research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a nonpartisan organization, offers clear evidence of the value of standardized college admissions tests. According to the study authors, SAT and ACT scores are the number one predictor of success at an elite college, making these test scores extremely valuable in the college admissions process. 

Test Scores Predict College Success 4x More Accurately than High School GPA

During this study, researchers analyzed the admissions and transcript records for students at Ivy League schools, the University of Chicago, Duke University, MIT, and Stanford to examine the relationship between SAT or ACT scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Their analysis showed that SAT and ACT scores are excellent at predicting students’ academic performance during their first year of college. 

In fact, students who earned a perfect SAT or ACT score had a first-year GPA that was 0.43 points higher (on a 4.0 scale) than students who scored at the 75th percentile (approximately 1200 on the SAT or 25 on the ACT). Students scoring at the 75th percentile on standardized tests were also 42% more likely to struggle academically in their first year of college.  

By contrast, the data show that high school GPA has little predictive power in forecasting first-year college grades. Students with a perfect 4.0 high school GPA earned first-year college GPAs that were less than .1 point higher than those with a 3.2 GPA (which represents the 75th percentile for high school GPA).  

The study authors concluded that “test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the applicant file.”  

The Predictive Power of Test Scores is Unbiased 

One of the most common arguments against the use of standardized test scores in college admissions is that these tests are biased against students from less advantaged backgrounds. However, the study found that SAT and ACT scores show no calibration bias, meaning students from different backgrounds with the same scores achieve similar college success.  

This confirms previous findings that have indicated that test optional policies actually hurt less advantaged students in the admissions process, leading them to withhold test scores that otherwise would have helped them to earn admission to selective colleges. 

More Elite Colleges Are Likely to Return to Test Required Policies 

As of 2025, six of the eight Ivy League schools require test scores for admission, while Columbia and Princeton remain test-optional. Other top universities, including MIT, Stanford, Caltech, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, NYU, and Johns Hopkins, have also reinstated test-required admission policies. 

This latest research provides further evidence that requiring test scores can enhance admission decisions at highly selective colleges and universities. It is, therefore, likely that additional schools will return to test required policies in the coming months and years. Students in the class of 2027 and beyond would be wise to plan ahead by preparing for and taking the SAT or ACT, ensuring that they are ready to apply to their dream colleges regardless of changes to test policies. 

Test Scores Can Confirm or Undermine a High GPA 

This research comes at a time when colleges are increasingly concerned about high school grade inflation. Since 2016, the average high school GPA has risen by nearly .3 points, even as other metrics of achievement have remained flat or even declined. Pandemic-era district policies have only exacerbated the trend, leaving colleges concerned about what students’ grades really say about their academic abilities. 

This doesn’t mean that high school GPA isn’t an extremely important factor in college admissions decisions—it consistently remains the top-ranked factor in surveys of college admissions officers. After all, high school GPA represents four years’ worth of effort. Even if they no longer reflect academic ability as strongly as before, high school grades still demonstrate a student’s dedication, work ethic, and attentiveness. 

However, in light of this new research, it is now fair to say that standardized test scores can shed new light on high school GPA. Given that standardized test scores better predict college performance, and thus academic ability, high SAT or ACT scores can serve as confirmation of a strong high school GPA. Conversely, low or absent SAT or ACT scores may undermine a high GPA by indicating that the great high school grades may not reflect actual academic ability. 

This is one reason why it is beneficial to submit strong SAT or ACT scores even at test-optional colleges: these strong test scores prove a student’s academic chops, further assuring colleges that the applicant would succeed at their institution. 

What is your opinion on the debate around standardized test scores in college admissions? Share your thoughts in the comments below! 

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Ashley Zahn is the Director of Content and Curriculum for C2 Education. In her 17 years at C2, she has been instrumental in helping thousands of students achieve their academic goals and earn admission to their dream colleges.