Is Online Enrollment in Decline? No. Here's Why

When the U.S. Department of Education released 2022-2023 enrollment data earlier this year the most important findings were:

1. Undergraduate enrollment continued its decline but slowed to -2 percent

2. Graduate enrollment contracted by 1 percent – the first time in a decade

3. Students opting to enroll in some or all all online courses also saw year-over-year contraction.

Wait. Online enrollment contracted? What does this mean for institutions that pivoted quickly to expand their online offerings after the pandemic? Is yet another crisis at hand? Inside Higher Education’s  headline did nothing to alleviate concern: “Students Distancing From Distance Learning”. Their opening line seemed reinforce the bad news: “The number of students participating in online learning is continuing a post-pandemic decline, new enrollment data show.” The story proceeded in a more measured manner, but for those who only scan the headlines, this seems to be “click bait.”

It IS true that year-over-year data indicate online enrollment contraction - actually for the second year in a row! However, this is only because three years ago (2020), millions of classroom students were forced into online or remote study that had to be reported to IPEDS as "all distance courses." In what follows, we use multi-year data to understand what is really going on, and what it means for institutional planning and execution.  

Where We Really Are

Since the pandemic, I’ve been using IPEDS data to track changes in student format choices not through year over year (YoY) comparison, but rather by comparing each year to 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year). What I am looking for (and present in the chart below) is net new/additional students choosing each of the formats in comparison with pre-pandemic rates. This is more useful in understanding the long-term impact of pandemic-era experiences, and how that has affected student format preferences.   

When looking at the data this way, what would my headline be? “Millions More Students Continue to Choose Fully Online/Some Online Study.” Why?

Undergraduate (chart at left above): In 2022 more than 2.2 million more undergraduate students decided to enroll in all or some online courses than did in 2019 – with those opting for “some online” outpacing “all online”. Compare this with 3.2 million fewer who opted to enroll in all classroom study. This does not present a strong case for returning the focus to classroom programs, while presenting a clear need to prioritize the offering of online courses within classroom programs and then fully online programs.  

Graduate (chart at right above): In 2022 more than 424,000 more graduate students decided to enroll in all or some online courses than in 2019 – with those opting for “all online” significantly outpacing “some online”. Compare this with more than 284,000 fewer who opted to enroll in all classroom study. Again, this does not present a strong case for returning the focus to classroom programs. Institutions need to continue to prioritize the offering of fully online programs and also online courses within classroom programs

This article presents extracts from a blog I wrote for the RNL Blog in February 2024. Read the full blog to review a full set of implications of these trends on institutions as they prepare for an increasingly online future.