Are our dreams truly our own? The Markov assumption, AI, and the mystery of originality

Have you ever paused while typing a message and noticed your phone suggesting the next word? Sometimes it feels like it’s reading your mind. But is it really? Or is it simply predicting based on what you just wrote, nudging you toward the most likely next word?

This experience is powered by the Markov assumption - the idea that the future depends only on the present, not the past. It’s a concept that quietly shapes much of artificial intelligence and, in subtle ways, even our own thinking.

Are we making choices, or are choices made for us?

When I choose my next word, am I truly making a free choice? Or is my decision already predicted, perhaps even influenced, by the algorithms and patterns I’m exposed to every day?

Take dreams, for example. Are the dreams I have truly my own, or am I nudged by the mainstream - by what’s trending, by what I see and hear - to dream in a certain way? Where does originality begin, and where does imitation end?

The Markov property, also known as “memorylessness,” means that a system’s next move is determined only by its current state. It’s how AI models like Markov chains and Markov decision processes simplify the world, making it easier to predict and decide. This is why your phone, your streaming service, and even your shopping apps seem to know what you want - sometimes before you do.

The power and the paradox

By focusing only on the present, Markov models cut through complexity. They make AI efficient and scalable. But there’s a philosophical paradox: by relying on what’s most probable right now, are we simply reinforcing the familiar, the mainstream, the expected? Are we losing the spark of originality that comes from unexpected connections and deeper context?

For example:

• Selecting a profession: Are you choosing your career path based on personal passion, or are AI-driven tools and societal trends subtly guiding you toward certain roles in the job market?

• Dreams and aspirations: Are the goals and visions you hold for your future truly unique, or are they influenced by mainstream narratives and algorithmic suggestions?

• Even what to think: Are your opinions and ideas entirely your own, or are they shaped by personalised content feeds and AI-curated information that nudge you toward specific perspectives?

Originality in the age of AI

Originality happens when we break free from the most probable next step - when we remember, reflect, and connect ideas in novel ways. While Markov models help AI make smart predictions, true creativity often requires stepping outside the boundaries of what’s expected.

In my own work, I see the tension between efficiency and originality every day. Markov models help optimise and personalise experiences, but I’m always asking: how can we leave room for surprise, for authentic expression, for dreams that are truly our own?

Reflections

The Markov assumption isn’t just a mathematical trick - it’s a lens through which we model reality. As AI continues to shape our world and even our dreams, it’s worth asking:

- When are we making our own choices, and when are choices being made for us?

- How can we balance the power of prediction with the need for originality?

- What does it mean to dream your own dreams in an age of algorithms?

How do you see the balance between prediction and originality in your work or life? Have you ever felt nudged by technology in your choices or creativity?