Pathway for climate mitigation in a resource-scarce agricultural landscape

India is focusing on both adaptation and mitigation to address climate change, with mitigation efforts aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A key strategy is increasing green cover through reforestation, afforestation, and agroforestry—creating a "green carpet" to support both mitigation and adaptation. India's 329 million hectares of land ideally should be divided into three equal parts: agriculture, forestry, and non-biological uses (habitation, industry, and infrastructure). Currently, 42% of the land is under arable cultivation, far above the global average of 32-33%. This has reduced forest cover to 22%, which is below the desired level, posing a challenge to sustainable development.

Agroforestry, which integrates tree planting with agriculture, is being promoted to increase green cover without sacrificing agricultural output. As India's population grows, the demand for food will increase, placing more pressure on agricultural land. Most farmers operate small plots, limiting economies of scale. Land aggregation and farmer cooperatives can enhance productivity, technology access, and market opportunities while safeguarding ownership rights. Intensive farming practices are unsustainable, leading to land degradation and water depletion. Adopting sustainable agricultural technologies, such as soil conservation, efficient water use, and reduced chemical inputs, is crucial for long-term productivity. Watershed management should also integrate resource conservation with the economic well-being of local communities. Agriculture should include both primary production (crops and livestock) and secondary agriculture (value-added processing), which creates jobs, increases income, and utilises agricultural by-products for growth and sustainability. The One Health approach, emphasising the interconnectedness of human health, animal health, and the environment, ensures actions in one area do not harm another, promoting ecological balance. Finally, aligning economic incentives with environmental goals through programs that offer financial benefits can encourage the widespread adoption of sustainable practices, fostering a resilient future.

Scope of agroforestry in India’s mitigation and development trajectory

India's agroforestry sector, crucial for land-based mitigation, is underperforming due to poor-quality planting material, operating at just 30% of its potential productivity. Unlike other sectors, the nursery sector supplying this material lacks regulation and standardised benchmarking, hindering agroforestry's effectiveness. Improving the quality of planting stock could significantly boost productivity by 20%, enhancing both environmental benefits and farmers' incomes. Globally, substantial investments in tree improvement programs have optimized agroforestry, but India's efforts are limited, focusing on only a few species and driven mainly by large commercial organizations. The dwindling involvement of forest departments and minimal investment have left India lagging behind. Farmers prioritize economic returns when planting trees, but the substandard planting material undermines their investment, making agroforestry less attractive. Improving planting material quality would offer better returns, incentivizing farmers and supporting broader environmental goals.

To make agroforestry successful, India needs to replicate the factors that led to food self-sufficiency: high-quality planting material, effective extension services, financing, and a robust marketing infrastructure. The "Tree Outside Forest in India" program aims to address these needs, enhancing agroforestry's potential to meet the country's wood demands and climate targets. As urbanisation frees up land, opportunities for agroforestry will grow. However, to realise its full potential, policymakers must implement comprehensive interventions similar to those that transformed Indian agriculture, ensuring agroforestry becomes a key player in economic and environmental sustainability.

Focal points for developing an inclusive, financially and technically sound LBM intervention

For land-based technologies (LBT) to be financially viable and effectively implemented, several key parameters are crucial. These include awareness, capacity building, and integrating local perspectives, particularly in project preparation. Emphasizing the "voice from the bottom" alongside top-down approaches is essential, as local land, forest, and water dynamics vary significantly across regions, as seen in the LBM interventions implemented across North-East India. Institutions responsible for implementing forestry, agroforestry, and related measures need a multi-sectoral approach, overcoming traditional silos. A landscape management-based approach is encouraged, requiring both justification and a willingness to move beyond sectoral boundaries. Capacity building at all levels, utilising available data and informed knowledge, is critical. Digital interventions can transform data into decision support systems (DSS), as demonstrated by Karnataka’s watershed interventions using land resource inventories (LRI) and decision support systems (DSS).

Convergence with other areas, as seen in Meghalaya’s community-led landscape management, is essential, linking land-based interventions with global goals. Natural capital accounting, though under-emphasised, is crucial for the financial viability of these efforts. The private sector’s involvement and funding are necessary, as government resources alone are insufficient. The focus is shifting towards high-value forest produce, requiring support from state forest departments and private entities. Economic benefits must be linked to natural resource management practices, including agroforestry, to attract private sector involvement and ensure benefits reach communities. Value chain development in forestry and agriculture is vital, connecting market linkages with broader landscape management strategies. This approach not only addresses conflicts but also supports economic development in communities.

Need for technological and data-based advancements

Advancements in technology and databases are vital for effective land-based mitigation in India. Accurate, target-oriented planning requires data with the right scale and attributes, yet significant gaps exist in the data provided by national organizations like the Forest Survey of India (FSI) and the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC). These gaps challenge the planning and implementation of India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target to achieve 2.5 to 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030 through additional forest and tree cover.

Analyses have identified mitigation activities such as forest restoration and agroforestry, but underscored the need for more granular data. To overcome these challenges, a comprehensive strategy involving sub-national entities is required, ensuring data not only supports planning and execution but also monitors impacts and co-benefits. A holistic approach that considers all aspects, beyond just carbon, is essential for successful land-based mitigation.

Emphasis on multi-stakeholder and cross-sectoral systemic lens

Effective land-based mitigation requires large-scale, interdisciplinary efforts involving multiple stakeholders. At the policy level, government agencies play a crucial role, while specialised institutions provide essential technological inputs. For successful implementation, particularly among small farmers and villagers, socio-cultural and socio-economic considerations must be addressed, making social institutions and NGOs critical. The private sector is vital for developing value chains, market linkages, and enhancing efficiency, ensuring widespread implementation. Managing collaboration among these stakeholders is key, necessitating a clear framework before project initiation.

Two key approaches are recommended for future efforts:

1.     Shift to Sustainable Production: Research and development should focus on transitioning from high-input, high-output systems to low-input, high-output models. This includes exploring the potential of C4 plants, which have higher photosynthetic efficiency, and applying advancements in genetic understanding, such as GM crops and gene editing, to develop crops responsive to sustainable production systems. This approach should extend beyond agriculture to pastures and other biological systems.

2.     Integrated Value Systems: Economic returns are paramount for individuals, so integrating production with post-production processes is essential. This involves developing robust value chains, agri-logistics, processing, and alternative market structures to optimize monetization. Embracing a bioeconomy, combined with a circular economy that prioritizes reuse and recycling, is crucial for reducing reliance on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. These strategies, supported by strong institutions, are essential for achieving a sustainable future.

Recommendations

• Establish benchmarks and standards for planting material to enhance the productivity performance of agroforestry interventions.
• Develop a strategy that involves sub-national entities and works towards a comprehensive policy on data for land-based mitigation.
• Incorporate the "voice from the bottom" rather than just the "voice from the top" in the preparation and implementation of LBM interventions.
• Promotion of interventions to convert data into decision support systems (DSS).
• Emphasis on natural capital accounting must increase, with interventions linking it to the financial viability of the project itself.
• Explore ways to bring small plots of land together through land aggregation and to mobilise farmers into cooperative groups.
• Shift towards a livelihood-driven approach that integrates natural resource management with the goal of improving the livelihoods of local communities.
• Adoption of holistic approaches like One Health helps minimise systemic negative externalities, promoting overall ecological balance and sustainability.
• Develop a package of interventions that push the adoption of agroforestry at a level similar to the systemic push to achieve food security in the Green Revolution era.
• Adopt a systems-level approach in the agricultural landscape to shift towards low-intensity, high-output sustainable systems.
• Recognise and adopt a value system approach to understanding and developing transitions towards sustainable practices.