Petrmindo webinar notes; Global Ni outlook & challenges.

On the 8th April 2021, Petromindo.com & Coal Asia magazine presented the webinar; - “Global Nickel Outlook and Challenges”, with sponsors of Shell, Iveco & Chakra Jawara. Some 400 particpants registered for this webinar that was held in English. Presentations were downloadable after the webinar. These are personal notes and should not be used for commercial considerations.

Mr. Hendra Sinadia; Member of the energy and Mineral resources committee Indonesia employers Association (APINDO). Hendra acted as moderator and provided some introductory remarks.

·       APINDO was formed in 1952 as an employee’s association for input to industrial policy, including the energy and mineral resource sector, and has input towards a wide range of policies and regulations.

·       The Nickel industry is viewed by investors and government as a key successful industry, attracting much global attention. The stainless-steel industry continues to be the major nickel market, though much speculation is triggered by the evolving battery market.

·       Post covid19 recovery is underway in China, bring strength back into the international nickel market.

Mr. Nikhil Shah; Principal analyst of CRU Group, presented on; “Overview of global nickel supply and demand outlook; What is the prospect in 2021 amid the Covid-10 pandemic?” Nickel price has been increasing from March 2020 to a correction in Feb 2021 following an announcement by Tsingshan’s announcement to use part of its NPI [Nickel Pig Iron] to produce nickel matte. Global stainless-steel prices are expected to rise in 2021. The Indonesian NPI is seen by investors as the only centre capable of growth, and will keep the market in surplus in 2021. Brief analysis of the different Ni processes and products.

Ms. Lingying Zhang; Major nickel market analyst at shanghai Metals Market (SMM) Nonferrous department, [ www.metal.com ] presented on; “Overview of China NPI production and market in 2021.” Outlined the impact of Indonesia’s Ni ore export ban upon China Ni industry, and impact on Ni prices. Stainless steel 300 series is predicted to grow strongly along with balance supply and demand. Other produces, such as electrolytic Ni and nickel sulfate were discussed.

Mr. Shofwatuzzaki; Lubricant technical manager or PT. Shell Indonesia. Presented on lubricant oils in the mining and smelting factory sectors. New synthetic products are leading to improved efficiencies and less machine wear etc.

Mr. Christoper Gower; CEO of Altilium Group, spoke on “Nickel Processing Indonesia- adding value Protecting the environment”. The focus is on Indonesia as an obvious site for growth to meet the predicted increase in demand for Ni. Global & Indonesia have environment and safety concerns in the growing Ni mining and process industry, particularly on tailing storage. Some of the Ni processes create more waste than others. Chris proposes a new DNi Process that extracts Ni, co, Sc, Fe, Al, Mg with much less waste produced. The process is safer without the need to heat acids and use high temperatures & pressures. The process has significantly lower capital and operating costs, with efficient plant construction. A pilot plant is operating in Perth.

Ms. Susiana Ekasari; Associate, Energy and Utilities – Oliver Wyman, spoke on “Outlook of EV and Battery Metals”. Numerous predictions for aggressive growth in the EV market, lead by regulation in EU and other countries. Further breakthroughs in battery technology expected, though price of Ni will remain high to reflect capital cost of Ni process plants, and battery manufacture. Cars, motorbikes and commercial trucks expected to be large drivers of new EV vehicles. The Indonesian government is supportive of the development of this EV battery market, in developing regulations and industry incentives. Forecasts of take up of the EV in Indonesia will likely require an hybrid phase, as the power infrastructure and high cost of EV will be impediments to rapid growth. There are now several types of batteries, with differing proportions of Ni, though even the Lithium batteries have substantial Ni content.

Mr. Ramli Achmad; Director PT. Virema Impex, did not have a slide presentation.

·       The present 25 Ni smelters is expected to grow by a further 35 Ni smelters, though this may cause a supply excess and drive down the price of Ni products. The government & established industry would like prices to remain strong, wherein final approvals for all new Ni smelters may become more difficult.

·       The issue to resolve how to manage tailings is an ongoing debate between environment, health and industry.

·       Hope that the government’s ongoing development of the regulatory process becomes more transparent.

Q& A discussion; Some discussion points included; -

·       Indonesia does not have enough trucks at the moment, so moving to more expensive EV trucks may take longer than some would like to see.

·       China is a stronger investor in the Ni sector than traditional European investors. Perhaps this may have some reflection on European’s trying to protect their own smelter industry. The various EU means to counter Indonesian Ni (carbon tax, trace elements etc) may also reflect this European protectionist outlook.

·       PLN will need to substantially increase its power generation capacity, and upgrade its transmission system, to mee the expected demand from EV. PLN is looking at options for overnight charging preferences, and such options, but millions of motorbikes will not adopt this practice.

·       Many of the proponents of EV promote forward looking graphs of smooth ever-increasing optimism. Real life may yet see bumps in these graphs.