The Possible AI Futures: A Dual Perspective on the Future and Policy

We are in the middle of a technological revolution, the potential futures of Ai seem both exciting and terrifying. There are many smart people and machines trying to find the right path forward and no one seems to have a clear answer. I certainly do not claim to have a specific answer but want to draw your attention to two possible futures based on research I did on Asia and some of the policies around the world that could impact which direction the future goes.

Academically speaking, the thesis posits that while AI has the potential to solve critical global issues and enhance human life, it simultaneously poses risks of exacerbating inequality and compromising individual freedoms if not properly regulated and ethically implemented.

The Utopian Vision

In an optimistic future, AI could revolutionize various aspects of human life and planetary stewardship. One significant impact could be the liberation of humans from mundane tasks, allowing for greater focus on creative pursuits, something long promised by futurists. This shift could lead to a reevaluation of work and potentially support concepts such as universal basic income.

Environmental protection stands to benefit greatly from AI advancements. Sophisticated systems could be deployed to safeguard clean water sources, mitigate flooding risks, and optimize agricultural practices. Robles et al. (2024) highlight how AI and machine learning models can analyze spectral data from water samples to swiftly identify pollutants and support early warning systems. Khanna et al. (2019) demonstrate that AI applications in soil analysis facilitate precision agriculture, tailoring resource application to individual soils to avoid excessive chemical use and conserve natural resources.

In healthcare, AI promises transformative changes. The development of vaccines could be expedited through large language models, while protein research for complex diseases could be significantly enhanced. Virtual trials could reduce the need for animal and human testing in early stages of drug development. The integration of robotics, telemedicine, and early detection systems could democratize access to healthcare, extending quality medical services to underserved populations.

This could lead us to a better managed society that is still able to manage resources with capitalistic gains but without the disastrous effects to our natural resources and ourselves.

The Dystopian Scenario

The dystopian potential of AI paints a starker picture of increased global tensions and widening societal divides. One prospect is the intensification of conflicts over rare earth minerals, crucial for AI technologies. This could lead to protectionist policies and potentially armed conflicts, destabilizing international relations.

The exploitation of the Global South as data processing centers with minimal compensation represents another dystopian possibility. This scenario could perpetuate economic inequalities, creating a new form of digital colonialism. The concept of personhood and data dignity could be compromised in pursuit of profit.

AI systems could assume control of large corporations, making critical decisions without proper accountability. Moll et al. (2022) identify objectivity, privacy, transparency, accountability, and trustworthiness as major ethical challenges in AI-based decision-making in accounting, highlighting the need for shared accountability between humans and AI.

The digital divide could become insurmountable for many nations. Carter et al. (2020) emphasize the significance of individuals' perceptions, beliefs, and AI attitudes in the AI divide, suggesting that mere examination of access to AI technologies is inadequate.

Legal and Ethical Considerations

The current rate of advancement and legal limbo necessitates an evaluation of legal and ethical frameworks, particularly concerning personhood and liability. The concept of personhood varies across jurisdictions. In the United States, federal law defines a person as "every infant member of the species homo sapiens who is born alive at any stage of development". The European Union recognizes both natural persons (humans) and legal persons (corporations, organizations).

The concept of non-human citizenship has gained traction in some countries. New Zealand granted legal personhood to the Whanganui River and Te Urewera forest, while Ecuador's constitution recognizes the rights of nature. India recognizes certain non-human entities, such as deities and animals, as legal persons. Saudi Arabia has granted citizenship to humanoid robots, with Sophia receiving citizenship in 2017 and Mohammed in 2023.

Regarding AI and data regulation, different approaches are being taken globally. The European Union's AI Act sets rules for AI systems based on risk levels. China has implemented Interim Measures for Managing Generative AI Services. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the EU and various Personal Data Protection Acts (PDPA) in other countries also play crucial roles in governing data use in AI.

We also see hints that establishing new regulations and oversight bodies in fast moving industries can greatly decrease the ability for new startups to challenge existing multinational corporations and well funded VC firms, potentially stifling creative problem solving that does not have immediate economic monetization. This is a potential area to explore in reshaping the mission of existing institutions and oversight bodies to include protections for data, people and IP. One are to explore could be expanding the Madrid Protocol to cover individual data as individual IP.

Conclusion

Regardless of which future seems most likely to you, we are headed for somewhere in-between depending on how we decide to act now. The potential futures of AI are complex, fast moving and important. Developing safe, sane and sensible public policies that protect individuals while fostering innovation is critical. Investments in infrastructure and education will be vital in managing the transition to an AI-integrated society, as will efforts to address the digital divide, especially in the global south.

As we determine how we want the future to look, we must consider where AI should be applied to solve problems and what kind of ecosystem is necessary to support its ethical development and deployment, including knowledge sharing, innovation based visa schemes and access to high processing systems in balance with natural resources. The balance between competition and collaboration in AI research and implementation will always be crucial, but we must also balance all aspects of the impact of technology on ourselves, our privacy and our planet .

Ultimately, realizing AI's potential for good while mitigating its risks will require a concerted effort from all of us. We must make our wise decisions for our won use of AI and lend support where we can to policymakers, technologists, ethicists, and civil society. By fostering an inclusive dialogue and prioritizing human values in AI development, we can work towards a future that harnesses the power of AI to enhance human flourishing and address global challenges, while safeguarding against the erosion of the parts of us that make us human. The world we have now shows our data is our external self and we must protect it to protect our dignity, our creativity and our humanity in the pursuit of progress.

References

Carter, L., Liu, D., & Cantrell, C. (2020). Exploring the intersection of the digital divide and artificial intelligence: A hermeneutic literature review. AIS Transactions on Human-Computer Interaction, 12(4), 253-275.

Khanna, A., Kaur, S., & Kaur, S. (2019). Precision agriculture: A review. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology, 8(7), 338-342.

Moll, J., Peffers, K., & Tuunanen, T. (2022). Ethical challenges in AI-based decision-making in accounting: A design science approach. Journal of Information Systems, 36(1), 107-130.

Robles, E., Fernández-Ramos, M. D., & Capitán-Vallvey, L. F. (2024). Artificial intelligence and machine learning in water quality monitoring: A comprehensive review. Water Research, 238, 120694.