The Psychology of Confidence: How Small Wins Create Big Comebacks

This week’s edition comes to you from Chicago, where I’m giving a keynote to a group of executives across insurance and other financial institutions to explore the psychology—often intertwined with anxiety—that underlies how individuals approach retirement. These conversations reveal something deeply human: when faced with uncertainty, people seek not only clarity, but confidence. Over the weekend, that theme took center stage in an entirely different arena (reasonable transition from retirement planning to tennis, I think).

The French Open Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner wasn’t just a masterclass in athleticism—it was a study in psychological resilience. After nearly five hours of play, down to match point, Alcaraz clawed his way back to win. His post-match explanation? Simple:

“I just had confidence in myself.”

That statement isn’t mere bravado. It’s psychology in action.

While the tennis world celebrated the drama, the more compelling story lives in that quiet belief. Confidence, especially under pressure, is not a trait granted to the lucky few. It’s a capability—built through experience, reinforced through action, and earned over time.

Confidence Isn’t Magic. It’s Momentum.

We often talk about confidence as if it’s innate. But research consistently shows that it’s something we build, not something we have.

We have talked before about the concept of self-efficacy—the belief in one’s capacity to succeed in specific situations. One of the most powerful ways to build self-efficacy, Bandura noted, is through mastery experiences—what we might call small wins.

Each time we successfully navigate a challenge, we tell our brain:

“I can do this.” And that belief compounds.

The Science of Small Wins

The Progress Principle is a helpful psychological concept—the idea that consistent, incremental progress is the single most powerful motivator in the workplace. Not recognition. Not rewards. Just steady movement toward meaningful goals.

“Of all the things that can boost emotions, motivation, and perceptions during a workday, the single most important is making progress in meaningful work.” — Amabile & Kramer, 2011, Harvard Business Review

These small steps, when made visible and reinforced, create psychological traction. And when that traction is paired with purpose, it turns into momentum.

What the Brain Tells Us

From a neuroscience perspective, small wins trigger dopamine release—our brain’s reward and motivation chemical. But dopamine doesn’t just make us feel good; it wires us to want to continue. We crave progress because it quite literally fuels us.

When wins are tied to effort and perseverance—like Alcaraz fighting off match point—they reinforce what psychologist Carol Dweck calls a growth mindset: the belief that ability is not fixed, but developed through effort.

This mindset is essential—not just in sports, but in work, relationships, and financial life.

What This Means for Your Work, Life, and Clients

You don’t need to be a Grand Slam champion to build confidence. You just need momentum.

Here are five strategies to create it:

1. Break Big Goals into Micro-Goals Writing a book? Start with 200 words. Saving for retirement? Start with the first $100. Progress, not scale, builds belief.

2. Make Progress Visible Use checklists, trackers, or dashboards. Every small completion is evidence—and your brain is always watching.

3. Celebrate the Small Stuff It’s tempting to only celebrate the big milestones. But confidence grows through acknowledging the journey, not just the destination.

4. Reframe Setbacks as Data Alcaraz didn’t win every point. But each one taught him something. Confidence isn’t about perfection—it’s about persistence.

5. Curate Your Circle Confidence is contagious. Surround yourself with people who reinforce your effort and progress, not just outcomes.

Carlos Alcaraz didn’t win that match solely because of talent. He won because he believed—because he had built the internal scaffolding for confidence long before that fifth set.

So whether you’re navigating retirement conversations with clients, facing a difficult decision, or building something meaningful in your own life—don’t wait for a massive breakthrough.

Look for the next small win. Then the next. And let confidence rise, one step at a time.

To learn more about my work or have me come visit, visit www.CharlesChaffin.com.

Or…to explore our advisor programs, or schedule a demo of MRI™ for yourself or your firm, email me directly atDrCharles@moneyandriskinventory.com

 Sources:

• Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84(2), 191–215.

• Amabile, T. & Kramer, S. (2011). The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work. Harvard Business Review Press.

• Dweck, C. (2006). Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. Random House.