Quantum Computing: Breakthrough or Bust?

“This is a moonshot. It’s like building the first space rocket. We’re doing something that’s never been done before, and we’re doing it atom by atom.” — Professor Michelle Simmons, on building quantum computers

Few technologies ignite as much excitement and scepticism as quantum computing.

Heralded as the next frontier of computing power, it promises to tackle problems so staggeringly complex that even today’s fastest supercomputers would take millennia to solve them. From science and quantum chemistry to climate modelling, AI, and financial modelling, quantum computing has the potential to reach far beyond classical computing power; especially in areas where the number of variables and interactions grows exponentially.

But for all its theoretical potential, a growing question looms: will quantum computing ever truly take off, or will its extreme requirements keep it confined to research labs and sci-fi predictions?

What exactly is quantum computing, anyway?

It probably makes sense to start at the top here, since the very phrase ‘quantum computing’ can be off-putting and intimidating to many.

At its core, quantum computing is a radical departure from the traditional way computers operate. Rather than relying on binary bits (which represent either a 0 or a 1), quantum computers use qubits (quantum bits) which can exist as 0, 1, or both simultaneously thanks to a phenomenon called superposition.

But that’s just the start. Qubits can also exhibit something called “entanglement” – a mysterious quantum link where the state of one qubit instantly influences another, regardless of distance. This, combined with quantum interference (a method of amplifying correct answers while cancelling out errors), enables quantum systems to explore many possibilities in parallel – and it’s this ability that makes them exponentially more powerful for certain tasks.

Here’s the difference in a nutshell:

Classical computing:

• Uses bits: 0 or 1.
• Processes one state at a time.
• Follows binary logic (something is either true or false).

Quantum computing:

• Uses qubits: 0, 1, or both at once (superposition).
• Evaluates many possibilities simultaneously.
• Leverages quantum mechanics, e.g., superposition (like flipping a coin mid-air, it’s both heads and tails until measured), entanglement (a strange but real effect where qubits influence each other instantly), and interference (enables quantum algorithms to “home in” on the correct answer by reinforcing useful outcomes and cancelling out noise).

Why should we care about quantum computing?

It’s important to know that quantum computing isn't just a faster version of your laptop – it’s a different beast altogether.

For problems where the number of possible solutions expands beyond human comprehension – and ones that classical computers might require centuries to solve – quantum systems may offer a shortcut, tackling queries in hours, even minutes.

It’s not just about speed either, it’s a completely new way of thinking and computing. Imagine trying to find the quickest route through a maze. A classical computer would try every path one by one. A quantum computer, in theory, could evaluate all paths simultaneously and highlight the best one instantly. This shift in thinking opens the door to solving problems that were previously considered unsolvable; not because we didn’t have enough speed, but because we didn’t have the right kind of logic.

This leads to some tantalising possibilities:

• Cryptography and cybersecurity: Quantum algorithms like Shor’s can factor large numbers dramatically faster than classical methods, potentially rendering even today’s strongest encryption standards useless! On the other hand, this opens the door to post-quantum cryptography, a new field of security.
• Pharmaceuticals and materials science: Quantum computers could simulate molecules and reactions with unprecedented precision, accelerating drug discovery and enabling the design of new materials.
• Optimisation and logistics: Complex optimisation problems, such as supply chain logistics or portfolio risk management, could be tackled more efficiently using quantum algorithms.
• Climate modelling and energy innovation: Quantum simulations might unlock more accurate models of atmospheric and molecular behaviour, leading to better forecasting and even breakthroughs in clean energy.

The theoretical benefits are profound. So what’s the hold-up?

Despite impressive strides by companies like IBM, Google, IonQ, and startups such as PsiQuantum and Rigetti, quantum computing remains in its infancy. Most current systems have only a few dozen stable qubits and suffer from extremely high error rates. Maintaining quantum coherence (the delicate state where quantum effects are useful) is incredibly difficult.

This fragility means quantum computers must be housed in specialised environments, often cooled to near absolute zero (−273°C) using dilution refrigerators. These setups are expensive, consume large amounts of energy, and are incredibly sensitive to environmental noise, vibrations, or even cosmic rays.

This raises a critical question: Can quantum computing ever scale in a way that is commercially viable, energy-efficient, and accessible?

• Energy vs. efficiency paradox: While quantum computers could drastically reduce time to solution for some problems, the infrastructure required to maintain them may offset those gains in terms of cost and sustainability.
• Hardware roadblocks: Different approaches (superconducting qubits, trapped ions, photonic qubits, topological qubits) all offer trade-offs, and no one platform has emerged as the definitive winner. We may be years or decades away from large-scale fault-tolerant quantum systems.
• Niche or mainstream? It’s increasingly likely that quantum computing will complement, not replace, classical computing. Much like GPUs accelerated AI workloads, quantum processors could become powerful co-processors for specific tasks.

The race for quantum computing isn’t just technological either – it’s ethical and geopolitical.  Nations like the United States, China, and the European Union are investing heavily in quantum research, each aiming to secure a quantum advantage that could reshape global power dynamics. This includes breakthroughs in defence, intelligence, and economic competitiveness.

Additionally, and as with AI, there’s growing interest in developing ethical frameworks for quantum technologies. Questions around data privacy, equitable access, and responsible use are becoming increasingly important as the field matures.

For business leaders and policymakers, understanding these dimensions is crucial; not just to stay competitive, but to help shape a future where quantum technologies are developed and deployed responsibly.

The cloud goes quantum: enter QaaS

It’s a common misconception that one day quantum computers will replace classical computers for everyone. In fact, they're far more likely to be specialised co-processors handling very specific, complex tasks that classical systems struggle with. 

Moreover, given the impracticality of hosting a quantum computer in your office (or even in most labs), many companies that want to utilise the technology are pivoting towards Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS).

Platforms like Microsoft Azure Quantum, Amazon Braket, and IBM Quantum Network are offering cloud-based access to early quantum systems. This means researchers and businesses can experiment with quantum algorithms today without needing a cryogenic lab.

This approach could bridge the gap between promise and practical use, allowing early adopters to gain insights and value while the tech matures. An interesting thought since this model mirrors how we already use cloud computing today: tapping into powerful, remote infrastructure only when we need it.

Final Thought

Quantum computing isn’t a gimmick – it’s a genuine scientific revolution in the making. But it’s also wrapped in layers of hype, misunderstanding, and premature promises. That’s exactly why I felt compelled to unpack these concepts in writing today: to cut through the noise and offer a clearer, more grounded perspective.

The reality? We're likely decades away from truly general-purpose, commercially viable quantum machines. Yet in niche applications, real progress is already happening. Much like the early days of classical computing, the most meaningful developments may come not with a bang, but a steady march of breakthroughs – the likes of hardware improvements, error correction, and hybrid algorithms that blend quantum and classical methods.

The question isn’t just if quantum computing will take off, but how far it needs to go to deliver meaningful value. For now, the race continues between scientific discovery and engineering pragmatism. The finish line is still far away, but the journey is being observed globally.

Richard Hutchings, Chief Technology Officer at Littlefish