Resilient Remodeling: What JCHS’s 2025 Forecast Means for Entry Doors & Dealers

In the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, one message is clear: remodeling spending isn’t collapsing—it’s stabilizing. The report projects steady but modest growth into early 2025, with a slight uptick of 1.5% year-over-year by Q1.

Let’s be honest, that’s not the double-digit boom we saw during peak pandemic remodeling—but in this economic climate, flat is the new up.

So, what does this mean for the entry door category, especially those of us selling into the R&R distribution channel?

I'll attempt to break it down.

Key Takeaways from the JCHS Report

The JCHS’s LIRA projection forecasts modest gains in homeowner remodeling spending through 2025—even as overall economic uncertainty lingers. Here's the gist:

• Annual homeowner remodeling spending is projected to rise by 1.2% through early 2025.
• While this marks slower growth compared to recent years, it reflects continued consumer interest in home improvements despite inflation and interest rate pressures.
• Growth will be uneven, with strength concentrated in high-equity households, aging homes, and essential upgrades (like roofing, HVAC, and—you guessed it—entry doors).
• Spending is expected to pick back up in the second half of 2025, assuming interest rates ease and housing turnover stabilizes.

What This Means for Entry Doors?

Let’s connect the dots for our corner of the remodeling world:

1. Steady Demand for Curb Appeal Upgrades

Even in tighter economies, entry doors remain a top R&R investment thanks to their relatively low cost and high visual impact. That’s good news for dealers and sales pros—the emotional appeal of a beautiful front door can help close jobs when larger remodels get delayed.

Action Step: Train sales reps to lean into value storytelling—energy efficiency, style, and security upgrades still resonate, especially with millennial and Gen X homeowners staying put and investing in their current homes.

2. Focus Shifts from Full Remodels to “Smart” Improvements

JCHS indicates that instead of full-scale overhauls, homeowners are prioritizing upgrades with a clear return. Entry doors fit that bill perfectly—affordable, efficient, and high-ROI.

Action Step: Make sure your product mix includes doors that offer premium looks without premium prices. Think: flush-glazed, prefinished, or fiberglass options that check the boxes on design, performance, and speed of install.

3. Sales Will Be More Competitive—Be the Easy Button

With slower growth and tighter wallets, homeowners will seek out companies that offer speed, simplicity, and service.

Action Step: Empower your dealers and installers with tools that streamline quoting and reduce install headaches. Think pre-hung systems, adjustable sills, and simplified hardware packages.

4. Back-End Strategy: Don’t Sleep on Strategic Sourcing

The forecast may be flat, but savvy pros will use this period to reassess their suppliers and inventory. Can you consolidate SKUs? Streamline delivery? Lock in better lead times?

Action Step: Now’s the time to revisit your vendor line-up. Partner with brands that offer reliable fulfillment, flexible options, and meaningful sales support to ride out market fluctuations.

5. Smaller Jobs Are Winning

According to the LIRA outlook, big-ticket remodeling is still softening. But smaller, impactful projects are holding steady or growing. Guess what fits in that category?

Entry door replacement.

For installers and sales pros, this means:

• Keep lead times tight.
• Keep pricing transparent.
• Promote ease-of-install with prefinished, prehung options.

This is your lane. Own it.

In a “meh” market, clarity can beat margin eroding promos. Entry doors are one of the few remodeling categories that check the boxes for ROI, energy savings, and visual upgrade—without blowing the budget.

The remodeling engine is still running, just not redlining. For those in the R&R channel—whether you’re managing a dealer showroom, knocking on doors, or supplying the suppliers—this is your chance to stand out.

Keep it simple. Focus on the essentials. Help your customers make smart, high-impact choices.

What are you seeing in your market? Are entry door sales tracking with the national outlook—or are they bucking the trend? Drop a comment below, share this with a colleague, and follow for more market insights tailored for the entry door pros.