A Revelation at the 7-Eleven

With my gym closed as part of social distancing measures instituted in Virginia I have taken to walking dozens of miles on local trails and along local highways. I am doing my best not to look too much like a homeless person as I bundle up against the wind, rain, or cold - or de-bundle as the temperature rises.

On these extended walks I have periodically found that my reach has exceeded my grasp - I have walked too far. In such cases I reach for my mobile phone and call my wife to rescue me from walking the last mile of a 9-12 mile walk. This morning she came to my aid and on the way home I suggested we stop at 7-Eleven for a Slurpee - a treat we once frequently indulged together. It was the most mundane of transactional opportunities, but the moment had a big impact on me.

As I approached the door of the 7-Eleven I forgot that I hadn't been out of the house, beyond my extended walks, for two days. Suddenly I was confronted by a door handle that was not attached to something that belonged to me. The thought of hundreds of other hands that had come in contact with that door handle rushed through my brain. I hesitated for a moment, but entered the 7-Eleven, shaking off the unanticipated pause.

Once inside the 7-Eleven I realized I had entered a self-service nightmare of unsafe surfaces. Coffee and soda dispensers and refridgerators and freezers. To get the Slurpees for my wife and myself I'd have to touch the cups and the lids and the dispensing handle. I forged ahead - putting the lids on the cups and attempting to fill them with Coke-infused ice.

Despite my sacrifices, the Slurpee machine refused to cooperate - no Coke slush came out. I returned to the car where my wife was waiting with the Purell and a napkin. That's what 33 years' worth of love looks like.

That's when it hit me. Now I understand what we've gotten ourselves into here in America and elsewhere the world over. I now understand why Bill Gates told the CNN Town Hall this weekend that the only way out of this mess is a month-long, country-wide lockdown, with widespread/ubiquitous testing and tracking.

I now understand why LMC Automotive is forecasting a 15% hit to global vehicle production with a 3M-unit hit in North America alone. I now understand why forecasters are anticipating a 20% unemployment rate and further declines in the stock market.

SOURCE: LMC Automotive

I now understand why automotive dealerships may be forced to consolidate, why mobility operators from scooters to ride hailing may struggle, why some businesses may never re-open. I get it.

This is not a hiccup. This is not a bump in the road. This is not just a flu. COVID-19 is broadly and deeply changing the way we do business, the way we interact, who we are, and how we live. The sooner we recognize this and accept the prescience of Bill Gates' recommendations, the sooner we will come to grips with this crisis and put the immediate misery behind us.

And the sooner we do that, the better, because it is going to take some time to get back to status go ante - at least two years, according to LMC Automotive. To get back to a time when stopping in to the local 7-Eleven for a Slurpee was no big deal - when shared surfaces did not represent a mortal threat. We can get there together, if we can just stay apart for a few more weeks.