September, Taxes and Temper: A Practical Playbook for Long-Term Investors
Alpesh B Patel OBE
Asset Management. Great Investments Programme. 18 Books, Bloomberg TV alum & FT Columnist, BBC Paper Reviewer; Fmr Visiting Fellow, Oxford Uni. Multi-TEDx. UK Govt Dealmaker. alpeshpatel.com/links Proud son of NHS nurse.
10 things I love about the UK (seems needed)
1. I feel at home. I was born here. Perhaps it shows borders are man-made. It does not mean I have to be tribal. A firm handshake after a tribal football match is as much anger as should be raised based on nationality.
2. The 'natives' have been gracious. Incredibly so. They've lifted me up. They've embraced me. My enemies are their enemies. They've invaded/ruled/fought pretty much every country on the planet (small Island syndrome) and pretty much every one of those country's people live in the UK!
3. Stiff upper lift, humour. They made me an Officer of the Order of the British Empire, after getting rid of the British Empire - told you they had a sense of humour.
4. Their education system gave the world Gandhi (British Indian Barrister - but with Indian values) and ummm Marx (not the funny one either).
5. They let bygones be bygones - they're besties with perennial scrappers - the French, Spanish and Germans. (Will have to wait about the Russians though).
6. Shakespeare. English. Liberal. Democracy (although we should ban referenda probably).
7. Men can't win the World Cup - but it must be boring being German. Being a Yorkshireman - Tendulkar played for Yorkshire.
8. Their history is full of things to be proud of and to be ashamed of - this ain't Greenland. And you can bang on about it endlessly to them, everywhere, all the time.
9. They grew up on the food of my heritage, they elected as Prime Minister a man of my religion - even though I think we're just above 1% of the population (sorry about that for anyone triggered).
10. My King loves the country of my heritage - India. (Although he would be the first to admit some of his ancestors loved it a but too much - a bit like King George I and America in that sense).
Hot Stocks and Cold Returns: How FOMO Hurts Retail Investors
Chasing the Next Hot Thing - and Paying for It
Retail investors have an unfortunate habit of being their own worst enemies. Time and again, fear of missing out (FOMO), panic or sheer boredom lure individuals away from carefully constructed model portfolios into chasing the latest market darlings.
From meme stocks to crypto crazes, many amateur investors switch strategies at the worst possible moments, invariably with painful results. As early as 1936, John Maynard Keynes warned that investing is “intolerably boring” without a gambling instinct – and those with it “must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll”. In plainer terms: the thrill of hot trades comes at a cost, usually deducted straight from your returns.
The Behaviour Gap: What the Data Shows
This isn’t just anecdotal. Behavioural finance research consistently finds that frequent trading and performance-chasing lead to underperformance. A classic study of 66,000 brokerage accounts found that households trading most actively earned a net annual return of only 11.4%, versus 18.5% for those who traded least.
Overall, these retail investors “significantly underperform” benchmark indices after costs. The pattern persists over long periods: one industry study found the average retail investor lagged the S&P 500 by 6.1 percentage points annually over a 20-year period.
Even in the bull market of 2023, when the S&P 500 surged over 26%, the typical equity fund investor earned about 5.5% less than the index. Why? Because emotional decisions – selling in fear during downturns and chasing fads in frothy markets – consistently erode investors’ gains.
Dalbar’s annual analysis of investor behavior bluntly concludes that “investors tend to sell out of investments during downturns and miss out on rebounds”, sabotaging their long-term returns.
Academic research dubs this the “behaviour gap” – the difference between an investment’s returns and the lower returns investors actually achieve due to poor timing.
One recent study even quantified a “Global FOMO Index” based on Google searches, showing that when public excitement about investing peaks, subsequent market returns consistently disappoint.
In other words, by the time everyone is talking about the “next big thing,” the big gains have likely already been made.
As the study noted, surges in hype are “warning signs of a bubble about to burst,” not opportunities. When excitement reaches fever pitch, rational decision-making disappears – replaced by FOMO that “destroys wealth rather than creating it.”
From GameStop to Crypto: Lessons from 2020–2023
The past few years have offered textbook examples. In early 2021, meme stocks like GameStop and AMC rocketed “to the moon” as throngs of retail traders on social media drove shares up hundreds or even thousands of percent.
But many small investors only piled in during the frenzy’s peak. As GameStop’s stock inevitably came back to earth, “many retail investors suffered significant losses,” with some losing the majority of their savings.
The AI-stock hype of 2023 has a similar echo: Nvidia’s share price tripled in mere months amid AI enthusiasm, and lesser-known names like C3.ai surged on speculation. Latecomers chasing these high-fliers risk discovering that gravity hasn’t been repealed – indeed, those who bought C3.ai near its 2023 highs saw the stock plunge by over 50% within months.
And in cryptocurrencies, the boom-bust cycle is even more brutal. Take Dogecoin: fuelled by online buzz and celebrity tweets, it soared over 8,000% in early 2021, then crashed more than 70% just weeks later.
Bitcoin’s manic run to nearly $69,000 was followed by a 75% collapse into 2022. Each time, the pattern is the same: waves of FOMO buyers crowd in late, only to hold the bag when reality returns.
Discipline Over Drama - Boring Is Better
None of this is to single out retail investors for scorn - it’s human nature to get caught up in euphoria or to panic at the first sign of trouble. Sticking to a model portfolio can indeed feel dull when everyone else seems to be getting rich quick (or claiming to).
But the sobering truth is that jumping from one flashy trend to the next usually ends in disappointment and depleted wealth. Markets have a knack for rewarding patience and punishing the impulsive.
A well-constructed, diversified portfolio may not deliver pub-worthy bragging rights, but it also won’t have you chasing your tail or selling at the bottom after a bout of fear.
The message from both data and experience is clear: FOMO is hazardous to your financial health. Yes, the discipline to stay the course – rebalancing, tuning out noise, and avoiding needless switches – can feel like watching paint dry while others ride roller-coasters.
Yet time and again, the tortoise beats the hare in investing. As the old saying (updated for markets) goes, sometimes the hottest portfolio move is no move at all. In the end, boring stability trumps exciting chaos – and your returns will thank you for it.
So you want to be rich?
Own shares. https://lnkd.in/dZRknS2
Why Are You Doing This?
Because the status quo is failing too many savers. UK households have piled record sums into bank deposits while inflation quietly taxes cash. UK Finance reports household deposits on the high street at roughly £1.09 trillion by late 2024 - admirable prudence, poor strategy if left idle.
History shows that owning productive assets beats parking money. The long-run UK data are unambiguous: equities have outpaced gilts and cash after inflation. A summary of the Barclays Equity Gilt Study shows roughly ~5% real annual returns for equities over 125 years, versus ~1.3% for gilts and ~0.5% for cash.
If the game were simply “buy anything with an equity label,” you wouldn’t need me. But the evidence says most active funds lag their benchmarks over time. SPIVA’s 2024 Europe Scorecard shows 93% of equity funds underperformed over 10 years on a fund‑weighted basis. SPIVA Europe 2024:
Where a disciplined process shines is behaviour. Vanguard’s research on Adviser’s Alpha suggests behavioural coaching alone can be worth up to ~200 bps a year through better decisions on rebalancing and staying invested.
That’s not magic - it’s avoiding self-sabotage. So why am I doing this? To fix three chronic problems: too much cash, too many high-fee under-performers, and too many investors jolted out of good strategies by headlines.
The Great Investments Programme is my attempt to put rules, research and ruthless clarity into people’s portfolios. We can’t promise outcomes - nobody honest can - but we can tilt the odds with process and discipline. That’s the point.
I’m New to This - Can I Really Do It?
Yes - if you follow rules, not vibes.
Two realities to accept early:
The antidote isn’t prediction. It’s structure.
Reality One: Most Active Funds Lose to the Index
SPIVA’s scorecards are unforgiving. Across a decade of data, the story doesn’t change: the majority of active managers fail to beat their benchmarks. By the end of 2024, the figure hit 91% underperformance.
📊 Active Global Equity Funds Underperformance Rates (SPIVA) Most years, 70–90% of active funds trail the index. In 2024, it was nine out of ten.
This isn’t bad luck. It’s structural. Higher fees, relentless competition, and index concentration all tilt the odds against you.
Reality Two: Investors Compound the Damage
Even if you pick a strong fund, chances are you won’t capture its return. Morningstar’s Mind the Gap study shows investors typically earn around 1 percentage point less per year than their funds - simply because they chase performance and panic at the wrong time.
📊 Investor Return Gaps by US Category Group (Morningstar)
Across equity, bond, and allocation funds, investors consistently underperform the very products they own. Zoom out, and you see why. Money tends to flow in after rallies and out after downturns.
📊 Investor Return Gaps and Net Flows (Morningstar)
Behavioural timing drags down returns - investors buy high, sell low, repeat.
Rules Add Value
The fix isn’t stock-picking genius, it’s rules. Vanguard’s Adviser’s Alpha research puts numbers on it: behavioural coaching, rebalancing, and cost discipline can add 100–200 bps per year - enough to close the gap and then some.
📊 Vanguard Adviser’s Alpha Table
Following a simple checklist of rules adds more value than most investors ever capture through prediction.
The real edge? Boring consistency. The discipline to keep investing when markets are scary, and to avoid chasing when they’re euphoric.
A Note for UK Readers: Fees and Wrappers
Costs are the one lever you fully control. In workplace pensions, the charge cap is 0.75% per year. Think of that as a ceiling, not a target. Lower is almost always better.
📊 Exhibit 5: UK Pensions Regulator
Flat fees and percentage charges are regulated to protect savers. Still, high fees quietly erode compounding over decades.
Process Over Prediction
So if you’re new to this, here’s the answer: yes, you can do it. Not by forecasting the market, but by following a checklist:
You don’t need to be an oracle. You just need discipline.
Be boring when markets are exciting. Be cautious when markets are euphoric. That’s the quiet edge most investors miss.
Why You Didn’t Even Get an Interview
It’s not you, it’s us.
Let’s start with the honest bit most hiring teams won’t write on a rejection email. We’re often drowning. For many roles the pile is Everest. Graduate and junior posts can see triple‑digit applications for a single vacancy, and even mid‑career roles regularly attract dozens.
When the Institute of Student Employers tracked applications last year, they found an average of around 140 per graduate vacancy. That’s not a job market, it’s a scrum.
Volume breeds crude filters. Nearly every large employer now uses an applicant tracking system to sort CVs before a human blinks at them. Depending on whose data you read, roughly 98 percent of Fortune 500 firms use ATS software and around 70 percent of large companies rely on one.
If your CV wasn’t formatted clearly or aligned to the role’s keywords, the robot may have filed you under “no” before lunch. That is not a value judgment on your talent. It is a brittle gatekeeper doing what it was built to do.
Then there’s the human bit. We like to pretend hiring is scientific. It isn’t. It is people judging people, often quickly, and human judgment is noisy. Kahneman’s research on “noise” shows decisions swing with irrelevant factors like mood or even the weather.
Two equally qualified candidates can get different outcomes on different days from different reviewers. If that sounds arbitrary, that’s because parts of it are. (Harvard Business Review)
Bias exists too, even when we try to be good. Name‑based and ethnic bias in CV screening has been repeatedly documented. Good teams work to reduce it, but it hasn’t been eliminated across the market. That means a perfectly capable candidate can be missed for reasons that would make any decent manager wince on reflection. Again, that’s on us.
And yes, chance matters. Who forwarded a résumé internally. Who nudged the hiring manager. Whether the role quietly tilted toward a niche skill at the last minute.
Referrals, like it or not, are still a powerful accelerant. Even LinkedIn’s own leadership has said that asking for a referral can multiply your odds of being hired several times over. That does not make the system fair, but it does explain why your excellent cold application sometimes vanished into the void. (WIRED)
So what should you do with this messy truth? Keep applying, but improve your side of the deal.
Optimise for the first 7 seconds. Initial screens are brutally quick. Use a clean layout, clear section headings, and quantifiable achievements that match the role. If a stranger can’t skim your top three selling points in one glance, rewrite until they can.
I Want an Income Each Month
So do we all. The question is how to produce it without kneecapping total return or blowing up in a downturn. Classic corporate‑finance theory says there’s no free lunch in dividends versus selling shares - income is fungible, and an engineered distribution from capital is economically equivalent to a dividend, taxes and frictions aside.
Of course, theory lives in a perfect world. Miller & Modigliani acknowledged that once you add frictions like taxes, transaction costs, or investor preference, dividend decisions can appear to matter.
Miller & Modigliani formalised this in 1961: mathematically, the value of a firm depends on earnings, growth, and return assumptions - not the dividend payout ratio.
In practice, total‑return investing with a spending rule usually beats chasing yield. Vanguard lays out why: targeting income narrows diversification and often raises risk without improving sustainability, whereas total‑return gives you flexibility to draw from income and gains. One of their key illustrations: whether value comes back as yield or capital appreciation, it’s economically equivalent - income is fungible.
Your real enemy in retirement isn’t a low dividend - it’s sequence risk: taking withdrawals just as markets fall. Bengen’s original analysis in the 1990s gave rise to the famous “4% rule.” His research showed that with a balanced portfolio, an initial withdrawal rate of 4% (inflation-adjusted) typically sustained a 30-year retirement - but the outcome depended on market sequence.
That’s why drawdown research - from Bengen’s original work to subsequent UK guidance - emphasises sustainable rates and buffers.
Increasing equity exposure improved the odds of long-term sustainability. With 75% stocks, the same 4% withdrawal rate gave portfolios more resilience, though it also meant tolerating higher short-term volatility.
A practical blueprint many GIP members use:
This is not theory - it’s what the evidence points to when the goal is reliable cash flow plus longevity of capital. If you love dividends, fine - prefer quality, valuation‑aware payers and remember the income is a by‑product, not the purpose. The purpose is meeting your spending without running out of money.
Explore how a 1 percent advisory fee can quietly erode $170,000 over 30 years.
Learn to evaluate what your fees truly cover and how cutting them can maximise your returns.
Take charge of your investments and reduce unnecessary costs today.
Why St James’s Place Polaris 4 (PN) Fails the “Balanced Pension” Test
Let’s skip the velvet glove. Polaris 4 PN is marketed as a neat, pre‑packaged, “balanced”‑sounding pension solution. In practice, it’s an equity‑heavy fund‑of‑funds with a brief track record and a fee stack that drags like an anchor. That combination is unhelpful for anyone who needs dependable compounding rather than expensive marketing. Here’s why.
1) It’s far racier than many investors think Polaris 4 is allowed to run at up to 100% equities and, in all market conditions, stays predominantly (>80%) in shares. It can also allocate to other collective investment schemes (including up to 20% in unregulated vehicles), which adds complexity and liquidity risk.
That’s not “middle‑of‑the‑road”; that’s high‑beta growth with a multi‑manager wrapper. See SJP’s own Key Investor Information for Polaris 4 (Unit Trust) for the mandate detail and risk language.
For context, the “PN” tag simply denotes the pension version. Trustnet classifies the pension variant in the mixed‑asset 40‑85% shares sector but lists it as a Pension Fund—useful only in understanding the wrapper, not the risk, which is plainly equity‑led.
2) Charges that compound against you SJP itself says the typical total ongoing charge (advice + product + fund) lands around 1.67% a year for pensions under its new unbundled model (live from 26 August 2025). Initial advice is tiered at 3%/2%/1% (capped at £30k), and the ongoing advice fee is 0.8%, with product charges typically ~0.35% and fund costs commonly quoted around ~0.52%. Even on SJP’s own numbers, that’s meaningfully higher than straightforward passive options.
By contrast, a DIY SIPP even if it was 0.37% all‑in—about 1.3 percentage points a year cheaper than SJP’s 1.67%. Over 10 years on £500k, assuming a 5% gross return, that fee gap alone can mean roughly £92,000 less in your pocket with the dearer option; and SJP’s tiered initial advice haircut can lop £12,500 off a £500k contribution on day one. Sources and fee schedules below. (Vanguard Investor, Financial Times)
3) Exit fees haven’t fully died SJP is finally removing early withdrawal charges on new money from 26 August 2025.
But contributions made before that will keep the legacy six‑year exit‑fee clock, meaning penalties can still bite well into the 2030s for existing clients. If liquidity flexibility matters to you, that’s a real drawback.
4) A short track record dressed in vast distribution Polaris 4 (Unit Trust) only launched 21 November 2022—there simply isn’t a cycle’s worth of evidence of persistent alpha. Meanwhile, the Polaris range has swollen to ~£65‑80bn, largely thanks to SJP’s captive distribution, not a decade of benchmark‑thumping returns. Scale is not a substitute for pedigree.
5) “Value for money” history that doesn’t help the defence SJP’s own value assessments have repeatedly flagged performance and value issues across the fund range. In 2024, over a quarter of SJP funds failed the value test, with around three‑quarters red‑flagged on performance before stripping out advice/platform charges. Even Citywire’s follow‑up shows that excluding advice fees improves optics, which rather proves the point: the advice layer is a big part of why outcomes lag.
Polaris 4 PN is essentially an expensive, equity‑heavy fund‑of‑funds with limited history, sold by a firm that is only now modernising its fees under regulatory pressure. If you want 80–100% equity exposure, you can buy it transparently and cheaply elsewhere.
Paying Harrods prices for a basket of iShares/State Street building blocks (SJP uses both in the range) is generous to SJP, not to your long‑term returns.
Don’t let an equity beta product become the Trojan horse for a lifetime of unnecessary fee drag. That’s not cynicism; it’s arithmetic.
What About The Macroeconomy?
Macro is intoxicating and mostly unhelpful for timing portfolios. The peer‑reviewed literature is brutal on forecasting equity premiums with macro variables. Goyal and Welch (2008) re‑examined a shelf of alleged predictors and found that out‑of‑sample, they largely failed to beat a simple historical average.
Even the big institutions struggle. IMF and World Bank research shows multi‑year growth forecasts tend to be upward biased and errors blow out in volatile periods - precisely when investors crave certainty.
And the macro‑to‑markets link isn’t clean. Jay Ritter’s work - reinforced by later studies - documents the weak or even negative correlation between GDP growth and subsequent stock returns across countries.
Fast GDP doesn’t guarantee fast equity returns, because dilution, capital intensity and value capture matter. U.S. productivity growth has been a quiet driver of wage gains and inflation stability - a more reliable foundation than GDP forecasts for long-term market resilience.
So the Great Investments Programme stance is pragmatic. We do respect macro - mainly as a risk‑management input and for scenario analysis - but we don’t pretend to have a crystal ball. The portfolio engine leans on what the evidence says has signal over sensible horizons: valuations as a probabilistic guide, base‑rate returns by asset class, factor exposures with proven long‑term premia, and strict rules around rebalancing.
In short: macro makes great conversation and poor triggers. We build for resilience, not clairvoyance.
Apple Stock Options Go Wild: $1.3M YOLO Calls and Event-Week Chaos
How the trading floor really speaks about Apple. It's not all polished. Here is what they're probably saying Holy MOTHERF**KING SANTA!
Look at this absolute CIRCUS of degenerate gambling! The options flow on the day of the iPhone event is more chaotic than my portfolio during earnings season!
The Absolute Mad Lads Are Going HAM:
MASSIVE CALL BUYING:
Big PUT Hedging:
The Degenerate Analysis:
Short-term (This Week):
Long-term Bullish Bets:
What This Tells Us:
The smart money is basically saying "Apple could moon OR tank after this event, so we're betting both ways but leaning slightly bullish long-term." Classic straddle/strangle plays mixed with some absolutely degenerate YOLO calls.
The fact that someone dropped over a million on deep OTM calls tells me either:
Either way, this volatility is BEAUTIFUL for us options degenerates!
Time to grab some popcorn and watch these bets either print tendies or create some legendary loss porn!
The Best and Worst Countries for Taxes - What It Means for Your Pension and Investments
The latest International Tax Competitiveness Index 2024 highlights just how differently countries structure their tax systems. Estonia takes the top spot for simplicity and fairness, while Colombia, Italy, and France rank at the bottom. The UK? It sits at 30th place out of 38, far behind leaders like New Zealand, Switzerland, and Latvia.
At first glance, this may seem like a dry global ranking. But if you’re someone in the UK saving for retirement - or relying on a pension already - these rankings matter more than you think. Taxes directly influence your net returns, your pension growth, and even how much freedom you have to invest on your own terms.
And this is where platforms like www.campaignforamillion.com come in: they empower individuals to invest smarter, avoid unnecessary fees, and plan for a million-pound retirement pot without depending on underperforming fund managers.
Why Taxes Matter to Your Pension
When we think about retirement savings, most people focus on investment returns: the stock market, funds, or property. But the real returns you keep are after-tax returns. In countries like Estonia and New Zealand, where tax systems are designed to be transparent and fair, pensions and investments benefit from efficiency. By contrast, the UK’s complicated and often punitive tax system can quietly erode wealth.
Consider these tax pain points in the UK:
Every one of these taxes chips away at your long-term savings. Compare that to Estonia, where corporate taxes are only levied when profits are distributed, allowing companies (and by extension, investors) to reinvest tax-free for years.
The Underperformance of Fund Managers - A Double Blow
As if taxes weren’t enough, most UK pension savers face another problem: underperforming fund managers.
Study after study shows that over the long term, the majority of active fund managers fail to beat the market. Worse, they charge high fees for the privilege. These fees, combined with UK taxes, leave ordinary savers with significantly less than they could have earned by investing directly in global markets.
Take a typical managed pension fund:
That’s potentially 3% or more lost every year. Over a 30-year retirement horizon, the compounding effect of this underperformance is devastating.
This is why learning to invest on your own - via simple, diversified strategies - can be transformative. And it’s why initiatives like Campaign for a Million are so important. They cut out the middleman, teach you how to take control, and show you how to use proven strategies to reach a million-pound pension pot.
Pension Calculator
Let’s put this into perspective with numbers. Using Alpesh’s pension calculator:
Projection:
This shows the extraordinary power of compounding. Even without additional contributions, money can grow more than fivefold in less than two decades - provided it is invested efficiently. Now imagine shaving off 2–3% annually due to high fund manager fees and taxes. Instead of $5 million, you could end up with barely $3 million - or less.
This is why cost control and tax planning are so vital.
Learning to Invest Wisely - The Campaign for a Million Approach
The campaign is built on three pillars:
Let’s break this down:
For UK investors, this isn’t just theory. It’s a practical path to keeping more of what you earn and avoiding the pitfalls of complexity and high fees.
Case Study: The ISA Advantage
Suppose you invest £20,000 per year into a stocks and shares ISA, earning 8% annually for 20 years. That’s £914,000 tax-free at the end. Compare this to the same investment outside an ISA, where dividend tax and CGT can reduce your final pot by 15–20%.
That difference - £150,000 or more - represents years of extra retirement income. All from simply using the right tax wrapper.
How Global Tax Lessons Apply to the UK
Looking at the tax competitiveness ranking, here are some key lessons:
For UK savers, this means you must work harder to structure your investments efficiently. The government isn’t making it easy for you—but that doesn’t mean you can’t succeed.
Practical Steps for UK Pension Savers
Here’s how you can apply these insights today:
Why This Matters More Than Ever
With inflation pressures, stretched government finances, and an ageing population, it’s unlikely that UK taxes will fall anytime soon. In fact, history shows that taxes tend to rise over time, not fall. Fund managers, meanwhile, continue to underperform while charging high fees.
That’s why taking control of your own pension and investments is no longer optional - it’s essential.
Platforms like www.campaignforamillion.com give you the tools to do this, with a clear goal: helping you achieve a million-pound retirement pot by learning, investing wisely, and avoiding the traps of high fees and complex taxes.
Final Thoughts
The global tax competitiveness index might seem like just another economic ranking, but its message is clear: tax efficiency and investment efficiency go hand in hand.
If you live in the UK, you’re facing one of the more challenging tax systems in the developed world. Combine that with underperforming fund managers, and it’s no wonder so many pensions fall short.
But there’s another path. By learning to invest directly, keeping costs low, and planning for tax efficiency, you can take control of your financial future. That’s what Campaign for a Million is about - helping ordinary investors build extraordinary retirement pots.
What if The USA is Overvalued?
You’re right to worry about expensive assets. By classic yardsticks the US looks rich. The Shiller CAPE sits in the high 30s, historically elevated.
MSCI’s August 2025 factsheet shows the MSCI USA on a forward P/E ~22.8. Meanwhile, MSCI ACWI ex USA trades nearer ~14.6 forward earnings - a sizeable discount.
Expensive doesn’t mean “crash tomorrow,” but concentration plus high multiples should nudge rational investors toward global diversification and valuation discipline. Vanguard’s research on home-bias and global equity diversification is clear: home-bias is costly and diversification is your only free lunch in finance.
“Fine,” you say, “so when do we rotate?” Here’s the awkward truth: timing valuation spreads reliably is hard. AQR’s work shows factor timing and market timing add little on average - big spreads can persist longer than your patience. The saner response is structural - own the world, tilt toward reasonably priced quality and value, and rebalance instead of gambling on a date with destiny. For instance, MSCI USA Value sits at a lower forward P/E than broad USA, while ACWI ex USA Value is cheaper still.
GIP’s approach reflects that evidence: reduce single-country risk, favour sensible valuations, and use rebalancing rules to harvest volatility. If US leadership endures, you still own it. If leadership rotates, you’re already there. Either way, you stop betting the farm on one postcode.
Meet Sundar Pichai. He just had dinner with the American President. The problem is he is Indian. It's a problem for a lot of Americans, from those who don't want Indian immigrants (specifically), H1B visa holders, to US Government officials. Many countries want him. The Indians certainly want him in India. Britain wants talent like his in tech - it's Government policy to attract top tech talent here. Anyway, Sundar, if you leave America, or as happened in Uganda to Indians, get removed, stop over in the UK.
Is the American Market Overvalued? So What Does it Mean?
Let’s start with the charge sheet. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E sits a little above 22, well north of its 10-year average around the high-teens.
The Shiller CAPE is hovering near 38, a level historically associated with rich pricing.
Verdict: expensive by most yardsticks. But expensive is not the same as un-investable, and valuation is an unreliable stopwatch for market timing.
Valuation is a poor short-term forecaster
Serious research shows valuation has some power over very long horizons but is weak to useless for one, three, even five-year timing. Vanguard’s multi-decade study found P/E-based signals explained only about 40% of the variation in real returns at long horizons and far less over shorter ones. In other words, shouting “CAPE!” is not a strategy. Earnings growth, margins, interest rates and risk premia matter, and they move.
A useful refinement is to adjust valuation for the macro backdrop. “Fair-value CAPE” work, for example, shows the multiple that makes sense changes with real rates and inflation. If discount rates fall or productivity improves, higher multiples are not necessarily bubble territory.
Damodaran’s implied equity risk premium points to the same nuance: expected returns are a function of price, cash flows and rates. His 2025 updates put the US implied ERP a touch above 4% recently – not cheap, not absurd – which is entirely consistent with “rich but rational if earnings deliver.”
Cash still loses the long game
Yes, 3-month T-bills around 4% feel comforting. Comfort is not compounding. Over 125 years, global equities beat both bonds and bills after inflation, with a roughly 4.3% real premium over cash in the 21st century to date.
That is the oxygen of pensions. Park in cash for a year while you wait for Godot-the-Correction if you must, but recognise the opportunity cost of missing equity risk premia.
If you need more motivation to avoid market-timing purgatory: decades of data show most wealth creation comes from a small minority of stocks. Miss the winners and you can match T-bills with equity-like volatility - a terrible trade.
Bessembinder finds the top 4% of US companies generated the entire net market gain since 1926. Translation: broad, disciplined equity exposure beats heroic stock picking and cash dithering.
If you’d like to explore the data behind this in more detail, UBS publishes the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, a landmark study of 125 years of financial history across global markets.
The public summary edition for 2025 covers equities, bonds, bills, diversification, and factors, and is widely regarded as the gold standard reference for long-term returns. You can read the full summary here:
“Overvalued” does not mean “uninvestable”
What moves returns from here? Earnings growth and breadth. Analysts still expect double-digit EPS growth into 2026, and forward P/Es that look stretched can compress harmlessly if profits catch up. Sector dispersion is also rising, which is what you want if you actually do research.
Crucially, quality matters. Decades of peer-reviewed evidence show that profitable, conservatively financed, well-managed firms deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. Call it profitability and investment in Fama-French. Call it Quality-Minus-Junk in Asness-Frazzini-Pedersen. Call it common sense. It is the antidote to fretting about the index multiple.
What this means for pensions
Bottom line
Yes, the American market screens rich. No, that does not make cash your friend. For pension savers, the rational play is not to outguess the next 300 points on the S&P 500. It is to stay invested in resilient businesses, sized to your risk, rebalanced with discipline, and judged over years, not headlines. The roof matters more than the weather.
Pension Panic and the Three Questions That Always Come Up
Every week, people worried about their pensions ask me the same questions. They’re variations on the same anxieties: “Is the market too high?” “Why are my returns so low with my IFA?” “Can I really do this without losing sleep?” This week was no different.
1. Is the American market overvalued?
It’s the most common dinner-table worry. The short answer: it doesn’t matter if you own resilient companies. Good investing is like building a house. You don’t panic every time the Met Office forecasts rain; you trust the roof you built to withstand it. Likewise, resilient businesses are designed to navigate recessions, interest-rate swings, even political chaos. You’re not betting on next quarter’s GDP. You’re backing managers who know how to make money in good weather and bad.
Yes, Wall Street looks expensive on a price-to-earnings basis compared to history. But that’s always been the case just before it goes higher. Valuations are not timing tools; they’re like complaining your house is “too expensive” ten years ago and missing out on a decade of rising property values. Valuations alone do not move share prices, if they did you would have the perfect most simple investing algorithm. Momentum, growth also matter. We pay more for stocks which are expected to grow more. So ‘overvalued’ is for simpleton journalists. And if it were that easy Wall St analysts would have predicted the crash of 2008. So build a brick house not one of straw and hope to take it down each time you see a cloud.
2. Can I do better on my returns? I’m only getting 4%.
Of course. Four per cent is basically the financial equivalent of a parking fine: small, irritating, and certainly not enough to secure your future. Over the past century, global equities have outperformed cash and bonds in all but a handful of years. Yes, there will be bad years – 2008, 2020 – but history shows the equity premium exists for a reason. Those who stay invested, rather than hiding in cash, almost always win.
The trick isn’t to chase every headline stock but to systematically build a diversified portfolio of resilient businesses. That’s where people fall down: they confuse “doing better” with “getting rich quick.” Good returns require patience. The best compounding comes from letting time do the heavy lifting, not from trading your pension like a slot machine.
3. But what if I panic? Or get bored?
This is where I come in. I’m not just a portfolio builder; I’m a mentor. Money is emotional. Left alone, many investors sell low, buy high, or switch strategies at the worst possible moment. If you think of investing as watching paint dry, you’ll be tempted to poke the paint. That’s when the damage happens.
A mentor’s job is to remind you that wealth is built slowly, not dramatically. It’s less James Bond, more Warren Buffett. A pension is not meant to be exciting. It’s meant to make sure you can afford to be bored in comfort later in life.
So yes, markets are volatile. Yes, 4% is poor. And yes, without guidance most people sabotage themselves. But that’s why the answer isn’t a stock tip. It’s a mindset: build your financial house properly, trust in resilient companies, and have someone at your side to stop you doing something stupid when the weather turns.
September’s Shadow on Wall Street: Lessons for Building Long-Term Wealth
Every September, like clockwork, my inbox fills with the same worried question:
“Alpesh, is this the month markets finally crack?”
It’s a fair concern. If you’ve been investing long enough, you know September carries a reputation - not of pumpkin spice and autumn leaves, but of volatility, red screens, and investor unease. It’s been called Wall Street’s “jinx month,” the “graveyard of summer rallies,” and the “September Effect.”
But here’s the twist: while September often delivers turbulence, it also offers valuable lessons for wealth builders. Lessons about discipline, psychology, compounding, and why temporary setbacks don’t derail long-term success.
This article is my attempt to walk you through those lessons - with hard data, historical examples, and actionable insights. Think of it as a toolkit for surviving September (and thriving beyond it).
Grab a strong coffee. Let’s go deep.
The Evidence: September’s Track Record
Let’s begin with the hard numbers.
Source: Bloomberg, Markets Live Data on S&P 500 Seasonal Performance
The chart above shows the S&P 500’s September returns from 2015 through 2024. It’s a sobering picture:
That’s the pattern in a nutshell: a few decent years, surrounded by sharp declines. If you’ve been invested during this period, you know September doesn’t forgive complacency.
Zooming Out: The Long-Term Data
Now let’s step back.
Source: Bloomberg, 20-Year Monthly Performance Analysis of the S&P 500
Over the last two decades, September stands out as the only month with negative average returns (–0.7%). Compare this with:
This isn’t a quirk of the 2010s or 2020s. Average Monthly Returns Since 1928 (Motley Fool): Shows September as the weakest month.
The “September Effect” stretches back almost a century. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a –1.1% return in September, making it the weakest month of the year. More importantly, September has produced more losing years (53) than winning years (43) — a statistical outlier compared to every other month. But to truly appreciate how persistent this pattern is, we need to zoom out even further. The Visual Capitalist chart below, drawing on YCharts data since 1950.
This reinforces the same story across seven decades: September is the only month with negative average returns (–0.72%). While months like April, July, November, and December consistently deliver gains. What makes this so powerful is the consistency - whether we look at 20 years, 50 years, or nearly a century of data, September repeatedly emerges as the weakest link in the calendar.
Why September Struggles
The question is: why? Why has one month, across generations, earned such a poor reputation?
Institutional Flows
September is fiscal year-end for many mutual funds. That means managers sell holdings to lock in gains, rebalance portfolios, and harvest tax losses. When trillions move in and out of equities, markets wobble.
Investor Psychology
There’s a behavioural finance angle too. After the summer lull, traders and investors return in September with a sharper focus on risks: Fed policy, budget deadlines, earnings warnings. Fear and caution dominate — and markets reflect that mood.
Macro Triggers
Some of the worst market events in history happened in September:
History has a way of reinforcing psychological biases. September feels dangerous because it often has been.
Academic Insights
Economists call this a “calendar anomaly.” Just like the “January Effect” (small-cap rallies) or “Sell in May” (summer weakness), September’s struggles have been studied in journals and hedge fund research. Some attribute it to reporting cycles, others to investor sentiment. The debate rages, but the numbers are hard to ignore.
Case Studies: When September Bites
Win Rate vs Average Return Chart: Highlights how September underperforms both in magnitude and frequency.
To truly appreciate the September Effect, let’s revisit three case studies.
2008: The Financial Crisis Peaks
September 2008 was catastrophic. Lehman collapsed, AIG required a bailout, and the global banking system teetered. The S&P 500 fell nearly 9% that month alone. Panic gripped markets.
But here’s the lesson: by March 2009, the bear market had bottomed. Over the next decade, investors who stayed invested saw one of the greatest bull runs in history.
2000–2002: The Dot-Com Bust
September repeatedly delivered pain during the early 2000s tech bubble burst. Overvalued internet stocks collapsed, wiping out trillions. Yet those who held quality businesses (or re-entered the market) participated in the massive mid-2000s rally that followed.
2020: Pandemic Volatility
After a sharp rebound from March’s crash, September 2020 reminded investors that uncertainty lingers. The S&P fell 3.9% as vaccine doubts, political tensions, and tech valuations weighed. Yet just months later, markets roared back to record highs.
The lesson? September may be rough, but it rarely changes the long-term trajectory of markets. Best & Worst Months (1950–2017): Demonstrates that August and September consistently lag. Average Monthly S&P 500 Returns 1950–2017 (Stock Trader’s Almanac)
The Tactical Investor’s Playbook
So, how should you approach September as an investor?
Expect Volatility, Don’t Fear It
Knowledge turns fear into preparation. If you know September is historically weak, a few red days won’t rattle you.
Stick to the Big Picture
The S&P 500 has delivered:
That’s the magic of compounding. September’s dips are temporary noise.
Use September to Buy, Not Sell
Corrections are chances to accumulate. Buffett’s advice applies here: “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Seasonal Strategies
Some traders avoid September entirely. Research from Jay Kaeppel showed that skipping the month and re-entering in October dramatically boosted long-term returns. That’s not advice to sell everything, but it illustrates how reliable the pattern can be.
Diversify Smartly
September corrections tend to hit broad indices hardest. Rotating into defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) or diversifying globally can help smooth volatility.
Heatmap of Monthly Returns: Vividly shows September “in the red” across decades.
September 2025: This Year’s Unique Risks
What makes September 2025 special?
In other words, September 2025 is shaping up to be “classic September”: volatility at high altitude.
But here’s the important reminder - every past September looked scary too. And yet, over time, markets powered through.
The Campaign for a Million Takeaway
Building a million-pound (or million-dollar) portfolio isn’t about avoiding bad months. It’s about discipline, compounding, and perspective.
September teaches us three lessons:
So, don’t fear September. Anticipate it. Use it. And above all — stay invested.
Because when you zoom out, September isn’t the graveyard of wealth. It’s the proving ground of patience.
Cover both ends of the spectrum. Invest in the enormously large and the small and growing fast too.
Why Investors Should Stop Obsessing About US Debt (and Other Macro Ghost Stories)
Every week, someone asks me: “Alpesh, what about the size of US debt? Won’t that bring down the equity markets?”
It’s a fair concern. The US is carrying over $34 trillion in federal debt (US Treasury), a number so large it might as well be Monopoly money.
Commentators talk about fiscal cliffs, debt ceilings, and looming crises as if the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are already saddling up.
But here’s the inconvenient truth: markets don’t live in the headlines. If they did, the S&P 500 would have collapsed a dozen times over in the last century.
Instead, it has compounded at around 10% annually since 1926 (Morningstar) - through wars, recessions, oil shocks, dot-com busts, and yes, mushrooming government debt.
Buffett’s Blind Spot for Macro
Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous investor, is known for many things - folksy wisdom, Cherry Coke, and the occasional $50 billion acquisition. What he’s not known for is obsessing about GDP forecasts or debt-to-GDP ratios.
Buffett himself said: “If you spend your life worrying about the macro picture, you will waste your life.”
He buys businesses, not economic predictions. His holding period, famously, is “forever.” That’s because resilient companies outlast macro noise. Coca-Cola sells sugary fizz in booms and busts. Apple sells iPhones whether Washington is running a surplus or a deficit. The right stocks are like camels in the desert—they survive droughts because they’ve adapted to scarcity.
GIP: An All-Weather Approach
That’s exactly the philosophy behind the Great Investments Programme. We’re not here to gamble on whether Jerome Powell sneezes during a press conference or Congress squabbles over a debt ceiling.
Instead, we focus on data-driven selection:
Quality scores: Companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings.
Sortino ratios: Rewarding return relative to downside risk.
CROCI filters: Cash-return-on-capital to separate the genuinely profitable from the pretenders.
Think of it as the difference between buying a sturdy umbrella versus predicting tomorrow’s exact rainfall in inches. One is practical, the other is fortune-telling.
Investing is Holding, Not Trading
Clients often confuse investing with trading. Investing means ownership, patience, and resilience. Trading is speculation, headlines, and heartburn.
Yes, US debt may balloon further. Yes, politicians may stage yet another theatrical showdown. But equity markets are forward-looking machines. They price in fear quickly, then move on. Investors who panic out often miss the recovery - the part where real wealth is made.
The Least Regrettable Decision
At GIP, we frame it like this:
In the long run, history suggests the last option delivers both wealth and peace of mind.
Conclusion
The US debt clock is scary, but it’s not an investment strategy. Headlines don’t compound, quality businesses do. Buffett never needed a time machine, and neither do we.
Investing, done right, is boring. It’s about resilience, not clairvoyance. And that’s precisely why it works.
Investing 101: Taylor’s Version
Lessons on Money, Pensions, and Investing from the World’s Biggest Star
Taylor Swift’s engagement to Travis Kelce has fans buzzing with excitement - but that’s not all we can learn from her.
Beyond the love story, Taylor is also an incredible example of smart strategy, patience, and reinvention - lessons every investor can use.
From her Fearless beginnings to the record-breaking Eras Tour, Taylor’s journey shows why success is built step by step.
And the same is true for your money. Whether you’re just starting out or thinking about your pension, investing wisely - and not relying on underperforming fund managers — can change your financial future.
Let’s go “album by album” and see how Taylor’s story can teach us to grow our money.
Lesson 1: Fearless - Starting Young
Taylor released Fearless when she was just 18. The earlier she started, the more time she had to grow.
In investing, starting young is your superpower. The earlier you invest, the longer your money has to grow through compounding - where your money earns money on itself.
Think of compounding like a song on repeat: the longer it plays, the more streams it gets, and the bigger the hit.
Lesson 2: Red - Emotions Run High
Red was about heartbreak and emotions. Investing has its own heartbreaks - when stocks fall, people panic.
But here’s the truth: if you sell too quickly, you miss the rebound. Successful investors keep calm, just like Taylor kept writing hits even when critics doubted her.
Your pension depends on avoiding panic and focusing on the long term.
Lesson 3: 1989 - Reinvention Pays
With 1989, Taylor reinvented herself from country to pop - and became a global superstar.
In investing, sometimes you need to reinvent too. That might mean shifting from old industries (like coal) into new ones (like renewable energy or tech).
Reinvention = growth. Your pension should adapt, not stay stuck in the past.
Lesson 4: Reputation - Ignore the Noise
Remember when Taylor disappeared from the spotlight and everyone thought she was “done”? Then she came back bigger than ever.
Investing has noise too: headlines, market crashes, fear. But just like Taylor, if you stay focused and keep building, the comeback is stronger than the setback.
Lesson 5: Lover - Long-Term Commitment
Engagements, weddings, love songs - Lover was about commitment. And now with Taylor’s real-life engagement in the news, it’s a reminder that some things are about the long haul.
Investing is the same. You’re committing to your future self. If you rely only on fund managers, you may find they underperform (most do). But if you commit to learning and taking control, your pension can grow stronger.
Lesson 6: Folklore & Evermore - Quiet but Powerful
These weren’t flashy albums — but they earned huge respect and lasting success.
Some investments aren’t “headline grabbers” (like trendy AI stocks). But steady, consistent companies can quietly build your wealth in the background. Every pension needs these “Folklore stocks” - stable, reliable, powerful over time.
Lesson 7: Midnights - Reflection Matters
Midnights was Taylor reflecting on her career, her choices, her wins and losses.
As an investor, you should reflect too. Are you just handing money to a fund manager? Is your pension underperforming? Could you do better by learning to invest yourself?
Reflection helps you take control of your financial story.
The Eras Tour = Compounding Magic
The Eras Tour has become the most successful concert tour in history, breaking records everywhere. Why? Because it’s not just about one album — it’s about everything Taylor built over years.
Investing works the same way. When you stay invested for years, your returns build on each other, like a tour selling out stadium after stadium. That’s the magic of compounding.
Taylor’s Version = Ownership is Everything
Taylor famously fought to own the rights to her music. Re-recording her albums into Taylor’s Version turned her from successful to unstoppable.
The same goes for you: owning your investments matters more than depending on fund managers. Don’t give up control of your financial “masters.” Build your pension by owning great companies directly.
The Takeaway
Taylor Swift’s success wasn’t luck. It was strategy, creativity, and taking control of her own work.
Investing is the same. You don’t need to be a superstar to grow your wealth - you just need to:
That’s what campaignforamillion.com is about: helping everyday people learn to invest wisely, build their pensions, and not settle for underperforming fund managers.
Because just like Taylor built her empire album by album, you can build your financial future pound by pound.
Everyone is panicking about America’s $34 trillion debt.
But here’s the thing: markets don’t collapse just because the headlines scream louder.If they did, the S&P 500 wouldn’t have returned around 10% annually since 1926.
If they did, the S&P 500 wouldn’t have returned around 10% annually since 1926.
Through wars.
Through recessions.
Through oil shocks.
Through debt crises.
Buffett doesn’t waste time guessing GDP or debt ratios.
He buys businesses.
He holds them.
He lets resilience do the work.
That’s exactly what we do in the Great Investments Programme.
We focus on data, not drama.
✔ Quality companies with strong balance sheets.
✔ Metrics like Sortino and CROCI that cut through the noise.
✔ Portfolios built to weather all seasons, not just sunny days.
Investing is not about predicting the next headline.
It’s about owning businesses that thrive regardless of them.
The question isn’t “what happens to US debt?”
The question is: “what’s the least regrettable decision I can make as an investor?”
History suggests it’s staying invested in resilient companies.
Link in bio / alpeshpatel.com/links for free pension review, call, book, free course.
The recipe for a nuclear device has three essential ingredients. Not uranium or plutonium, but:
1. Critical Mass: Every breakthrough requires enough momentum. Whether it’s capital, customers, or credibility - until you hit “critical mass,” your idea fizzles. Too many start-ups stay sub-critical: lots of energy, not enough density. In investing, this is why diversification matters; you need a portfolio that builds compounding force, not scattered sparks.
2. Containment: In physics, containment ensures the reaction sustains itself. In business, containment is about focus. A leader who chases every shiny opportunity lets the energy leak out. The best investors and entrepreneurs know how to build strong walls: clear strategy, disciplined capital allocation, and ruthless prioritisation.
3. Detonation Mechanism: Finally, you need a trigger. In markets, that’s timing. You can have brilliant ideas (uranium), a disciplined structure (containment), but if you misjudge the trigger - waiting too long or going too soon - nothing happens. Or worse, it backfires.
Put these together, and you don’t have a bomb - you have an unstoppable chain reaction of growth.
The lesson? Don’t be afraid of explosive metaphors. In a world of incrementalism, sometimes the only way to get attention - and results - is to think at nuclear scale.
U.S. Tariff Rates by Country: What Investors Need to Know
When most people think about tariffs, they imagine obscure trade negotiations happening in faraway capitals - Washington, Brussels, Beijing.
But tariffs are not just lines on an economic report. They are levers of power, tools of diplomacy, and often, weapons of economic war.
More importantly for you and me as investors, tariffs reshape supply chains, shift profit margins, and influence which companies thrive - and which struggle - on the global stage.
The Visual Capitalist infographic above provides a striking snapshot of just how varied U.S. tariff rates are by country. From Brazil and India at the punitive 50% rate, to allies like the EU, UK, and Japan at 15%, and others in between, these numbers tell us more than just trade policy. They reveal the broader chessboard of international economics.
Today, I want to break this down for you. We’ll go country by country, region by region, and pull out lessons not just on economics, but on investing. Because tariffs don’t just make goods more expensive - they reshape entire industries.
And as I often remind people on www.campaignforamillion.com, the goal is not simply to understand the numbers, but to act on them intelligently. To invest where opportunity lies, and to avoid being blindsided by political or economic risk.
Why Tariffs Matter for Investors
Before diving into the global map, let’s clarify why this topic is not just for policymakers. Tariffs affect:
For investors like us, tariffs are not just “policy noise.” They are signposts to potential risks and opportunities.
The Outliers: Brazil and India at 50%
The most eye-catching numbers on the map are Brazil and India, both facing a 50% U.S. tariff rate.
Investor takeaway: Don’t dismiss high-tariff countries. They may lose access to U.S. markets, but they often pivot and strengthen ties elsewhere. For you as an investor, that means diversifying your portfolio globally - and recognising that U.S.-centric thinking can be a trap.
The Middle-Tier: China, Switzerland, Canada, Iraq
Investor takeaway: Companies with strong brands (Switzerland) or trade agreements (Canada) can weather tariffs. Meanwhile, China continues to be the wildcard - both unavoidable and risky.
The UK Factor: Post-Brexit Tariffs
You may have noticed the map groups the UK under the EU’s 15% tariff band, but since Brexit, the UK has been negotiating trade agreements independently.
Investor takeaway: UK companies with global operations - especially in finance and pharma - remain attractive. For retail investors, FTSE 100 giants are less tariff-exposed than manufacturers.
The 15% Club: EU, Japan, Australia, New Zealand
The Hidden Stories: Syria, Laos, Myanmar
Case Studies: Companies on the Frontlines of Tariffs
To make this real, let’s examine companies caught in tariff crossfires:
Global Patterns: The Tariff Chessboard
Step back, and patterns emerge:
As investors, this reinforces the importance of geopolitical awareness.
Portfolio Lessons from Tariffs
Bringing It Back to You
At www.campaignforamillion.com, I often remind readers that the path to wealth is not about chasing fads, but about understanding structural forces. Tariffs are one such force. They remind us that politics and economics are inseparable.
But here’s the good news: as investors, we don’t need to predict every tariff change. We just need to position ourselves where resilience lies. In strong brands. In diversified geographies. In industries that thrive regardless of trade wars.
That is how you build not just a portfolio, but a future-proof portfolio.
Final Thoughts
Tariffs are sometimes called the “invisible tax.” They don’t show up on your payslip, but they shape everything from the price of your iPhone to the performance of your pension fund.
This map is a reminder that the global economy is interconnected, but not equally. Some nations face high walls; others enjoy open gates. For investors, the key is not to fear those walls, but to navigate them intelligently.
So the next time you hear a politician talk about tariffs, don’t tune out. Think about your portfolio. Think about where supply chains might shift. Think about which companies can raise prices without losing customers.
That’s how professionals think. And that’s how you, too, can invest like a professional.
Alpesh Patel OBE
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