The Sibylline Scroll
Sibylline Ltd
Sibylline is a leading strategic risk consultancy, delivering timely, accurate, relevant and actionable intelligence.
June 2025 Newsletter
Foreword
Dear clients and friends,
If the first half of 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that the cost of geopolitics is no longer theoretical – it’s tangible, immediate and increasingly complex. From contested trade routes to cyber sabotage, proxy war – and now, direct ones – the strategic landscape is shifting faster than ever. This Mid-Year Forecast reflects not only the risks we track, but also the evolution of how we help you understand and navigate them.
This year’s report focuses on the most pressing global risks, offering scenario-based insights to help you anticipate what’s next. It also marks a turning point in how we think about intelligence -- not just as a product, but as a capability. In the coming weeks, we’ll be announcing exciting updates to our training offering, alongside innovations that will reshape how our intelligence is built, delivered and applied.
You can access the full report here
As ever, it is our privilege to support you and your organisation. We look forward to sharing more with you very soon.
The Sibylline Team
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
Special Report: Iran-Israel: Israeli Strikes Against Iran Will Increase Risk of Attritional Armed Conflict, Iranian Escalation (20 June)
This report analyses Israel’s strategic objectives following its strikes on Iran, assessing the likelihood of prolonged conflict, regional escalation, and Iranian retaliation. It explores the implications for global energy markets, regional security, and business operations, while evaluating Iran’s potential responses, including proxy attacks and attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Request a copy of the report here.
Activism Monthly Review: Emerging Tactics and Targets of Left-Wing Activist Networks (17 June)
Our first edition of the Activism Monthly Review provides an assessment of the evolving tactics, motivations and threat profiles associated with various left-wing activist groups. It begins with an analysis of two UK-based environmental activist groups: Citizen’s Arrest Group, which uses direct, in-person engagements and confrontations with targeted executives; and Shut the System, an organisation which chooses infrastructure disruption and vandalism over more traditional passive strategies.
In the second half, the report provides an analysis of emerging activist trends, covering environmental, anti-government and anti-corporate activism.
Request a copy of the report here.
ON THE HORIZON
We assess that the US airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities on 22 June have increased attack and international terrorism risks in the country in the short-to-medium term. Volatile oil prices, together with the ongoing trade wars, will likely increase socio-economic health risks in the medium-to-long term. We will continue to monitor the ongoing situation amid the volatile Iran-Israel ceasefire initially declared on 24 June.
The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to act as a locus for a wide range of geopolitical risks. On 24-25 June, NATO allies gathered for a summit in The Hague (the Netherlands) where numerous participants committed to continued military support for Ukraine. However, there was notable silence regarding Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, indicating sustained diplomatic tensions.
In the meantime, we assess that rare earth supply chain risks will remain elevated despite a US-China trade agreement announced on 27 June. Beijing will likely continue using its dominance in the vital rare earth industry to increase its geopolitical leverage.
EVENT HIGHLIGHTS
SIBYLLINE MID-YEAR FORECAST In-person Event – 10 June, Tysons, VA
Our Mid-Year Forecast 2025 launch event in Tysons, VA, brought together industry leaders, clients and colleagues; during the event, our analysts presented their critical insights and discussed their predictions for the rest of the year.
Our CEO, Justin Crump, provided an overview of the road to 2027, assessing the risk of global conflict and the cost of geopolitics over the coming months.
Our intelligence analysts shared their views on the US-China war, the war in Ukraine and US-Iranian nuclear talks; and Angela Lewis, Derek Leatherdale, Sam Olsen and Jack Nott-Bower led a fantastic workshop providing tips and guidance on the strategies that companies can use to help navigate uncertainty.
If you were there with us, thank you for joining!
AIRIP Global Intelligence Forum – 10-13 June, Tysons, VA.
Our team also attended a variety of engaging sessions at the AIRIP Annual Forum, where Embedded Operations Manager Melissa Lucid moderated a panel on ‘Communicating in a Polarised Environment’ and Senior Training Advisor Angela Lewis shared her expertise on leadership.
9th CISO 360 Global Congress 2025 – 24-26 June, Munich, Germany
We were delighted to be a headline sponsor at the 9th CISO 360 Global Congress in Munich, where our Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, spoke in detail about the looming geopolitical flashpoints, how they will culminate and what it means for CISOs.
Our team had lengthy discussions with participants and other speakers who shared similar concerns and how tracking major geopolitical trends had become critical to ensuring effective cyber and information security practices. If that’s a topic you’re interested in, please email info@sibylline.co.uk.
UPCOMING EVENTS
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Up & Out: A Five-Step Model for Executive-Backed Intelligence
In this iteration of our Up and Out Series, we explore how intelligence teams can strengthen their approaches to executive-level communication. Not only would this elevate their advisory capacity, but it would also deepen their influence within organisations.
Read the full article here
RECENT PODCASTS
IN THE PRESS
On 24 June, Megan Sutcliffe discussed the dynamics between the US, Israel and Iran and developments during the ongoing NATO summit on the BBC. The week prior, she spoke to Ros Atkins (BBC) on how close Iran is to a nuclear weapon. (watch here).
On 6 June, Alex Lord was also interviewed by Ros Atkins regarding Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb attacks against Russia (listen to the full interview here).
On 2 May, Justin Crump was featured in a thought-provoking article published in The Telegraph, titled: ‘Britain’s biggest companies are preparing for a third world war’ (Read the full article here).