Some States Show Progress on Absenteeism — But Why? We Asked the Experts.

New national data on chronic absenteeism just came out — and for the first time in a while, there’s a bit of good news. States that pledged to cut absenteeism in half are doing better than the national average, and fewer students are missing school compared to the pandemic peak.

While these improvements are a step in the right direction, chronic absenteeism has become one of the toughest, most stubborn challenges in education. Rates are still far too high, and the early gains are already slowing. Some experts even warn we may never get back to pre-pandemic attendance levels.

I don’t think anyone would disagree that kids going to school matters. Academic recovery, graduation, and long-term opportunity all depend on that most basic condition of showing up. 

So yes, we’re glad to see improvement, even if it’s modest, but we’re also curious. What’s behind the shift? Are states seeing results because they made public pledges and held themselves accountable? Are schools re-establishing norms and routines after years of disruption? Or is the system just slowly finding its footing again?

The truth is, we don’t know for sure — and the data doesn’t give us a tidy answer. So, as we often do, we reached out to some of the smartest people we know to help us make sense of it.

Here’s what they had to say:

Andrew Rotherham, Co-Founder & Senior Partner, Bellwether: “I suspect it's no one thing, so this is probably Occam's razor on attendance. A few factors: There are now policies intended to focus on this as well as supports for schools. That matters. With the passage of time since 2020 and 2021, we've gone from a culture of permissiveness around school attendance (remember ‘kids will learn more at protests than in school?') to the reemergence of a culture of going to school. And more adults are back in person at work, so the toll of kids not in school is rising. Some may also relate to the data, some kids aren’t there anymore. That’s a problem. And while it’s good that chronic absenteeism is declining, we shouldn’t lose sight of how high it remains relative to pre-pandemic, especially for low-income students. If the goal is making sure that kids who need to be in school are in school, then we’re not out of the woods yet.”

Angelica Infante-Green, Commissioner of Education, Rhode Island Department of Education: “As Commissioner of Education for the State of Rhode Island, I am proud to share the transformative work our state has undertaken to address chronic absenteeism through our Attendance Matters RI campaign. This collective, cross-sector initiative reflects our commitment to equity, student well-being, and promoting academic success, and it has positioned Rhode Island as a national leader in attendance recovery. Along with our attendance improvement, Rhode Island was recently recognized in the latest Education Recovery Scorecard as the leading state in New England for academic recovery post-pandemic and among the top 15 nationally in math and English Language Arts recovery.”

Chad Aldeman, Education Analyst and Founder, Read Not Guess: “This may be a boring answer, but I wouldn't characterize the data as showing "sudden" improvements. Instead, I see slow, incremental gains in most places. I suspect that's partly a return to normalcy, partly about schools re-establishing norms around regular attendance.”

Christina Grant, Executive Director, Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard University: “Unsure if the framing is 'suddenly' improving or if it's more that systems have gotten clear about the data, remained focused on targeted interventions on improving absenteeism and made it clear that coming to school every day is a societal issue as opposed to a 'schools' issue. As systems continue to rebound from the impacts of the pandemic, the community focus on attendance shifts the narrative and families understand the importance of attending school everyday.”

Kevin Huffman, CEO, Accelerate: "Accountability works, and you have to measure and manage what you want to see. The states that pledged to take this on were the ones most likely to collect and manage the data, talk about this with district leaders, share best practices, and push on laggards. Credit to American Enterprise Institute, EdTrust and Attendance Works for linking arms on this project!"

Let’s get muddy

Want to dig deeper? Here are a few resources worth checking out:

• What research says we should do about absenteeism by Education Week

• Shoutout to Rhode Island for leading the way on transparency. Their public dashboard makes it crystal clear how districts are doing on attendance.

And while you’re at it — follow the folks who shared their takes this week (Andrew Rotherham, Angelica Infante-Green, Chad Aldeman, Kevin Huffman).