STRATEGIES IN ACTION - HOW CAN LATE ENTRANT COVID-19 VACCINES WIN IN THE MARKETPLACE?

Worldwide Vaccination against Covid-19 (SARS-Cov-2) begin on 11th December 2020 after the emergency use authorization by US FDA to Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine. It has been followed by similar approvals to Vaccines by Moderna Therapeutics (mRNA-1273,) and Astra-Zeneca & Oxford University vaccine (Formerly AZD1222 and Covishield by SRI India). Russian and Chinese Health authorities also approved Sputnik -V (Gamelya Research Institute) and Sino pharm Vaccine candidates although clear authorization and approval process are not known. As of today, additional vaccine approvals to CanSino Biologicals (China ) and FBRI (Russia) were also granted for their respective vaccine candidates.

 A number of other vaccines are in advanced to early stage of clinical development cycle. Notable ones include Vaccines by Bharat Biotech India (already approved in advanced clinical trial mode) as well as candidates by Zydus Cadila, Jannsen pharmaceuticals, Novavax as well as others (Refer to WHO Vaccine Tracker for comprehensive view)

 The summary diagram below depicts a consolidated view of the current Covid-19 Vaccine candidates.

Due to humanitarian crisis caused by Covid-19, a number of diagnostics as well as pharma biotech companies put in unprecedented efforts towards the creation of Covid-19 vaccines. Therefore a key question arises whether the early entrants will continue to command the highest market share and all gains (financial and strategic) from the Covid-19 Vaccine development or whether the later entrants would also get significant rewards for their efforts.

 To understand this situation, we need to look at the following market and socio-environmental factors which can play an important role in determining the possible outcomes -

1. Population to be Vaccinated and % of Target Vaccinated : At the time of writing this article only about 2.12% of the total population has been vaccinated, and this % of most to moderately susceptible population (40 Years and above) stands at about 60% of the total. Based on the current news flow by the respective manufacturers, it appears that similar emergency use authorizations could be taken by at least 4 new manufacturers till 31st March 2021. However, the total available market of the moderate to most susceptible would still be just be about 6-8% captured. The others factors which would potentially determine the total available market at the time of late entrants could be the following :

• Integration of diagnostics and surveillance programs in Covid-19 Vaccinations by different countries - This could vary significantly among different countries based on the state of their healthcare systems. Examples to consider include Sero-Surveys done by Indian state governments in Delhi and Maharashtra which indicates that a significant population among most-to-moderately susceptible population do not require vaccination. These studies are being keenly watched by WHO and therefore could influence the vaccination guidelines across the world. We need to be therefore mindful of this impact going forward in this journey against Covid-19.
• Changes in the treatment Protocols and Guidelines for Covid-19: A no. of monoclonal antibodies have been in development for the treatment of different severities of Covid-19 and any development there could impact the vaccine recommendations by different global health authorities.
• Timing of the Market Entry: Although we know that earlier the better, however, it appears that companies should probably enter by 15th April and continue to make strategic pre-announcements of their progress to the market place.
• Post Launch Rare or Fatal Adverse Event Development - Experience with all human therapeutics till date is that in the real world certain adverse events do appear which can cause significant damage to the market potential of existing or to be launched therapeutics.            

 2) Therapeutic Advantage or differentiation - Currently, the vaccines by Pfizer- Biotechne and Moderna as well as differential dosage by Oxford - AstraZeneca combine claim over 95% efficacy which is significantly high. However, some significant adverse events have been reported mostly in the most susceptible population and has been fatal in the rare co-morbidity instances. An superior adverse event free claim although unlikely can confer unique differentiation in the marketplace. Other differentiators could be more convenient regimens like single dose vaccination.

3) Product Differentiation in a Crowded Market Place : Some of the competing companies have large production capacities (e.g. Serum Institute of India) and cost advantage could be difficult to achieve over competitors. However, still there are CMO and CDMOs with significant capacities & capabilities to ramp up who could be partnered with to achieve cost parity and efficiency.

Based on the time at which market entry is achieved, companies can look to judge the addressable market at the entry point and further stages of the pandemic life cycle and plan to differentiate from the competition.

Some of the differentiation strategies could be:

• Combining the vaccine offering with a companion diagnostic and offering differential dosages or regimens to the health conscious population
• Offering Vaccination along with a comprehensive health check up by using a strategic partnership to mid-market private bodies or individuals
• Offering on site vaccination by means of strategic partnerships with a healthcare provider group to industrial or corporate customers.

Long term Brand Image Development - Every company or organization who has been able to contribute to the prevention, diagnosis or treatment of Covid-19 has gained significant brand value and equity. Notwithstanding whether they made gains on the products aimed at Covid-19, this whole effort is likely to lead to gains in the other products to be launched or selling in the market. Therefore, companies need not worry even if the economic profits are not very high here post vaccine launch.

 Considering the all above factors at the moment it appears that there appears to be significant opportunities in terms of addressable market for a number of vaccine candidates currently in pipeline. This could be higher particularly for the ones which can secure emergency authorization by mid- April 2021. Product differentiation strategies in terms of perceived value or focus on specific customer segments may be required only after first 9 months of the year 2021. Although, it is noteworthy that there continues to be a significant uncertainty with regard to the pandemic life cycle as all countries did not adopt uniform measures with regard to testing and surveillance.

Let's keep track of the pandemic and pray for the health and well being of entire humanity.

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#Covid-19 Vaccine #Covid-19 Strategy #Business Strategy # Corporate Strategy