Survivorship Bias and the Science of Guaranteeing Success

How do you guarantee success in an endeavor?

In my journey of entrepreneurship and business strategy over the last 10 years, I came across a concept that significantly altered my understanding of success: survivorship bias.

Survivorship bias, introduced to me through the work of Abraham Wald, sheds light on the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, due to their lack of visibility. More here -> (https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/survivorship-bias).

This bias can lead us to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored. In business, this means lionizing the successful without understanding the full story, including the many similar strategies that may have (or did) lead to failure.

I have always taken issues with the saying "success isn't guaranteed" because, to me, it IS as close to guaranteed as is possible if you do the 3 things below. I've realized that guaranteeing success isn't just about emulating the end products of success - the survivors, it's about the failures too.

Here are a few strategies I've distilled from my experience, learning, and the inevitable trial and error that comes with any big journey:

1) Identify Essential Skills

Understanding and acquiring the necessary skills is crucial - hard work doesn't cut it. It's also about more than just hard skills like technical know-how or strategic analysis; cultivating resilience, adaptability, and emotional intelligence are all massively important.

I recently spoke to one of my mentees about the idea that a results-based business (like ours in Vector) is great because you have a high degree of control over your outcomes (pay). The flip side of that coin is those results do not care if you are working hard but not getting the result.

Here it is on a bumper sticker: There is no participation trophy in the highest rewarded (paid) and most important jobs on earth. Only pass or fail. Only success or failure.

Look at the industry leaders, top organizations, outstanding individuals, and/or the ventures that didn't make it. What skills set the survivors apart? What did the people who quit or failed have in common? How can you integrate these skills into your own repertoire or avoid certain pitfalls?

2. Create a General Timeline for Learning

Once you've identified these skills, develop a realistic timeline for acquiring them. Be disciplined, yet flexible. Understand that some skills might take longer to hone than anticipated and that your journey might be punctuated with unforeseen challenges or opportunities that necessitate a pivot in your strategy.

Something I have done to help with this aspect is to consult accomplished mentors and experienced guides (@Andrew Biggs, Ryan Casey, Mike Monroe, Dan Casetta, and Patricia James to name a few). A mentor's insights can help you discern the right path and avoid common pitfalls, allowing you to navigate your journey far more efficiently and effectively.

And yes, a great mentor is almost always worth the money they are going to charge you (bonus if they're free by association, you must repay them by being a great student).

3. Don't F*cking Quit

People quit way too much, way too often.

This might seem oversimplified, but it's perhaps the most complex and crucial piece of advice. The path to success is littered with obstacles that in the moment seem insurmountable. Remember, many of the failures in that hidden majority were ONLY failures because they gave up too soon.

My #2 sales rep in career revenue generated started with me in her sophomore year of college at UW-Seattle. She nearly quit her first 7 days on the job. Then a month later. And one more time at the end of that year. Her first 2 semesters working part-time with me? She only made $9,800. She almost quit...but never did.

Her annual earnings after 2018:

2019, Junior Year: $31,000.

2020, Senior Year: $67,000.

2021, 1st Year out of College: $136,000.

2022, 2nd Year out of College: $182,000.

Second year out of college and she's earning more than most lawyers do, with a degree in International Business Management (I'm not even totally sure what that is). Because she never quit.

Not quitting is simple to say but complex in practice because humans are inherently wired for energy conservation. We often don't embark on challenging journeys simply because we doubt our capability to succeed. Often times we base it on other's probability of success, which might just be the WORST way to gauge whether or not you should go for something.

Embracing what I call the marathon mentality means recognizing that early failures thin out the competition AND clarify the path ahead - in other words, it's a good thing to see when people quit, and that they do quit.

As you pass each milestone, your understanding of the journey deepens, and the likelihood of YOUR success increases. Knowing when to pause and reevaluate, understanding the art of a strategic retreat, and knowing when to push through the tough times.

Reflecting on these strategies, I think about my own path and the times I've seen potential dimmed by unanticipated challenges. There have been colleagues over the years who have got off to a faster start than me, outperformed me, etc., and yet, many of them are no longer here today, let alone many not experiencing success in what they moved into.

I've learned over and over that success isn't about avoiding failure; it's about navigating failure with insight, preparation, and an unwavering commitment to your end goal WHILE being flexible on how you get there.

Survivorship bias reminds me that for every celebrated success story, there are countless untold stories of those who didn't make it. By understanding and planning for the journey's entirety, not just the success at the end, you can better prepare yourself for the reality of what it takes to achieve your goal.

I encourage everyone embarking on a business or personal venture to consider these points, especially as we head into the new year.

Reflect on your own journey, the skills you've identified as essential, a timeline for learning them (it's probably years if you think it's months, and months if you think it's weeks), and how you plan to persevere through challenges along the way.