The Tariff War - Twisted in Method, Strategic in Intent

More than 30 years ago, a young Donald Trump appeared on The Oprah Winfrey Show and spoke with surprising clarity about how the United States was being short-changed—on trade, on military alliances and in global governance. He argued that the U.S. was subsidizing the rest of the world, receiving very little in return. Back then, few took him seriously. But today, as President Trump wages a full-blown tariff war across the globe, that old clip has taken on a new life—proof that, if nothing else, Trump has been consistent.

Critics have called the ongoing tariff war reckless, even comparing its potential economic disruptions to the COVID-19 pandemic. But underneath the noise lies a deliberate strategic intent: Trump is attempting a hard reset of America’s place in the global order. He’s not simply imposing tariffs—he’s demanding that the rest of the world renegotiate the unwritten rules that have governed global trade, diplomacy and defence for decades. It’s not chaos for chaos’ sake. It’s disruption with purpose.

Trump’s message is clear: The United States will no longer be the world’s economic benefactor. Whether it is NATO allies not meeting their defence spending commitments, WTO rules that favour developing economies at America’s expense or multilateral trade agreements that eroded the U.S. manufacturing base, Trump is calling time on the status quo. His demand is for reciprocity, not charity. And if that requires pressure through tariffs, then so be it.

Yes, tariffs do raise consumer prices in the short term. Yes, they invite retaliation. But they also serve as blunt instruments of negotiation. Trump is using them to drag countries to the negotiating table—to reset terms that have long been lopsided. The world has grown comfortable with a U.S. that opens its markets, protects sea lanes and provides aid, often unconditionally. That model is over. The tariff war is Trump’s way of making that unmistakably clear: there are no more freebies.

Of course, the method is not without flaws. Tariffs alone will not bring back America’s manufacturing heyday. To rebuild the economy meaningfully, Trump will need to match protectionism with a forward-looking industrial strategy—one that includes investments in advanced technology, green energy and infrastructure. That’s where his current domestic agenda comes in. He has already put infrastructure front and center, and will put renewed focus on building the wall along the southern border, upgrading airports, modernizing roads and bridges and stimulating construction. These are not just policy objectives—they are job engines for semi-skilled and skilled American workers alike.

To fund this ambitious agenda, the administration is pushing hard on two fronts: cost control and revenue augmentation. The efforts of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) are aimed squarely at trimming federal spending. At the same time, tariffs are being used not just as negotiating tools but as revenue sources—replacing taxes in some areas and subsidizing domestic priorities. Trump has promised that any inflationary effects of tariffs will be offset by tax cuts, ensuring net relief for American families.

Agriculture is another underleveraged American strength. With its fertile land, cutting-edge agri-tech and export capacity, the U.S. can be a global food powerhouse. But trade retaliation has hurt farmers in the past—China’s tariff slap on U.S. soybeans being a prime example. Trump’s approach this time is to link tariff diplomacy with targeted support for farmers and push aggressively for high-value agri-exports. The goal is to make American agriculture not just productive, but profitable and strategically significant.

Similarly, in defence manufacturing, the U.S. has an opportunity to diversify its offering. Emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America want access to American defence technology—but not all can afford top-tier systems. By developing mid-range alternatives, enabling licensed production, and pricing smartly, the U.S. can outcompete China and Russia while expanding its global influence.

Geopolitically, Trump understands the world is no longer unipolar. It’s a fragmented global order where no one coalition can effectively gang up against the U.S. China has frosty relations with more than half the world, including India. Russia is isolated. Even America’s critics are divided among themselves. Trump is exploiting this disunity, knowing full well that retaliation against U.S. tariffs will be uneven, cautious, and likely short-lived. India, for instance, has already made clear that it will not join a retaliatory bloc, preferring instead to work pragmatically with the U.S.

There’s also a broader global undercurrent at play. Trade as a percentage of global GDP rose from 26% in 1970 to a peak of 63% in 2022—but it dropped to 59% in 2023 and continues to decline. Nations are looking inward, prioritizing self-reliance, and reshaping supply chains. As this trend accelerates, the relevance of institutions like the WTO will erode. Bilateral deals will dominate. And with that comes the risk of countries moving away from the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency—something Washington is watching with laser focus and will aggressively counter.

So, what is Trump doing now—and what can we expect next?

• Driving hard bargains to extract trade concessions or justify higher tariffs, bringing in fresh revenue for the U.S. Treasury.

• Doubling down on exports in agriculture and defence, positioning the U.S. as a competitive, strategic partner to the world.

• Creating large-scale employment through infrastructure, construction and domestic manufacturing while laying the foundation for high-skill jobs in technology, AI and R&D.

• Reshoring delivery, innovation and design back to U.S. soil to secure long-term technological superiority.

• Securing energy independence in the short term through traditional sources while investing in sustainability and renewables for the future.

• Resetting global alliances, demanding fairer contributions from NATO, the Middle East and Japan—and cultivating new alignments with countries like India.

In essence, this is not an erratic economic crusade—it is a bold, if abrasive, realignment of America’s priorities. Trump is tearing up the old rulebook and forcing the world to write a new one—with the United States firmly holding the pen. His approach may be twisted in method, but it is undeniably strategic in intent. The Tariff War is the new Cold War. This time, it is USA vs China