Tariffs vs. Tender in a World at War

Trump’s Trade Wall, BRICS’s Gold Gambit, and the Global Reordering Amid Two Conflicts

✍️ By Denik deBro

"The 20th century was shaped by the U.S. dollar and its rules. The 21st may be shaped by who defines value—and whether it’s backed by gold, digital consensus, or brute economic force."

🧱 Trump’s Tariff Wall: Fortress Economics in a Fragmenting World

Donald Trump’s return to economic nationalism—primarily through punitive tariffs—is framed as a strategy to protect American industry and reassert global leverage. But in a world already fractured by war, the effects are no longer contained by spreadsheets or policy briefs.

🔹 What It Did:

• Rewired global supply chains and jolted commodity prices
• Sparked a wave of retaliatory tariffs from allies and rivals alike
• Destabilized the global trade consensus without building a replacement

🔹 The War Factor:

• The Russia–Ukraine war has revived Cold War energy dynamics, compelling U.S. allies in Europe to diversify trade, even as U.S. tariffs make cooperation more difficult
• The Middle East war, particularly between Israel and its regional opponents, is stoking energy market volatility, forcing the U.S. to rely more on North American sourcing—reinforcing protectionist instincts

“Trump’s tariffs make more sense in a world coming apart—but they offer no vision for rebuilding.”

As global tension grows, tariffs may gain domestic appeal—but they risk alienating allies who are desperately seeking stability, not further walls.

🪙 BRICS’s Gold-Backed Currency: The Monetary Pole in a Multipolar World

The BRICS alliance is no longer just an economic curiosity. With Russia at war in Ukraine and Iran drawn into Middle East escalation, BRICS is fast becoming a geopolitical pole, increasingly opposed to Western sanctions, banking systems, and narrative control.

Its gold-backed, multi-currency initiative is an explicit challenge to the Western financial order.

🔹 What It Proposes:

• A store-of-value currency anchored in gold, traded through bilateral or multilateral digital platforms
• An end-run around the dollar, SWIFT, and IMF, with the Global South as its early adopters
• A narrative of monetary sovereignty against Western “financial coercion”

🔹 The War Factor:

• The Russia–Ukraine war has led to Russia being cut from SWIFT and sanctioned—fueling its urgency to construct a parallel financial system
• The Middle East war, involving BRICS-admitted Iran, sharpens the divide between the Western-aligned petrodollar bloc and BRICS oil producers (e.g., Russia, Iran, even Saudi Arabia in a quiet shift)
• Sanctions have become a weapon, pushing many countries toward non-dollar mechanisms to avoid future punishments

“For BRICS, the wars aren’t deterrents—they’re catalysts.”

⚔️ War and the World Order: Where the Fault Lines Now Lie

The two concurrent wars aren’t isolated skirmishes—they are accelerants in a world undergoing realignment.

🧭 The Verdict: A World Dividing into Builders and Breakers

Trump’s protectionism is a strategy of holding the line. But it’s increasingly difficult to defend a wall in a world that’s not static. The more wars escalate, the more this strategy risks turning the U.S. into an isolated fort rather than a global hub.

BRICS’s gold-backed initiative, by contrast, is not a reaction—it’s a reinvention. Even if messy or contradictory, it gives disaffected nations a platform, a pathway, and a parallel system to operate in.

“War polarizes. Tariffs retreat. Gold seduces.”

⏳ Closing Reflection: Is the New Order Already Here?

As the U.S. doubles down on tariffs and alliances of convenience, BRICS is building something slower but possibly more durable: a currency bloc immune to Western sanctions and dictated monetary policies.

In this contest, the wars are not sideshows—they are trial grounds for which system will endure.

Will the future be walled in—or minted anew?

✦ The post-dollar age may not arrive with a bang, but with a ledger, a gold reserve—and a choice.

🌍 1. European Union (EU)

✔️ Most capable, but cautiously committed

Rationale:

• Strong motive to shield itself from U.S. monetary policy spillovers (e.g., interest rate hikes causing euro weakness).
• Opposition to weaponization of the dollar system (e.g., U.S. secondary sanctions).
• Push for strategic autonomy in finance and defense.

Possibilities:

• Digital Euro (ECB-backed) already in development, could be used in intra-EU and Global South transactions.
• Gold revaluation occasionally surfaces in German and French economic circles, though not official policy.
• Strong banking infrastructure allows for gradual detachment from dollar-clearing systems like SWIFT.

Constraints:

• Eurozone itself is already a multi-nation currency block.
• Deep U.S.–EU financial interlinkages make full de-dollarization unlikely without a geopolitical break.

🔹 Verdict: The EU is the most realistic candidate for launching a sovereign-aligned digital euro system, but gold or crypto backing is unlikely in the near term.

🌏 2. ASEAN

🟡 Strong desire, limited cohesion

Rationale:

• Tired of dollar-driven capital flight during crises (as seen in 1997 and 2020).
• Fear of being collateral damage in U.S.–China tensions.
• Growing trade volume within the region and with China/India makes dollar-denominated settlement inefficient.

Possibilities:

• ASEAN has intra-bloc Local Currency Settlement (LCS) agreements already operating between Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines.
• Discussion of gold-linked clearing units have emerged in academic and policy circles.
• Potential for a regional digital token, possibly backed by a commodity basket or regional stability fund.

Constraints:

• No unified currency like the Euro.
• Political diversity and economic asymmetry make coordinated monetary policy difficult.
• Heavy reliance on U.S. markets and security umbrella for key members.

🔹 Verdict: ASEAN is actively exploring non-dollar solutions, especially via local currency swaps and CBDC experiments, but lacks the institutional weight to launch a true multi-currency reserve system—yet.

🌎 3. African Union (AU)

🟠 Ambitious but structurally limited

Rationale:

• Colonial-era dependence on Western financial structures still persistent (e.g., CFA franc).
• Rapid adoption of mobile money and fintech infrastructure opens new possibilities.
• Interest in joining BRICS financial alternatives.

Possibilities:

• Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) launched to bypass USD in trade.
• Some advocates pushing for resource-backed African stablecoins or CBDCs.
• African nations like Ghana and Nigeria are piloting digital currencies.

Constraints:

• Debt burden denominated in USD.
• High inflation, weak financial infrastructure in many member states.
• Political instability and lack of fiscal coordination.

🔹 Verdict: Vision exists, especially among younger economists and digital innovators, but execution will be slow and uneven. Still, African demand for dollar alternatives is rising fast.

🧭 Strategic Outlook: Who’s Most Likely to Act?

📝 Final Thought:

As trust in dollar hegemony declines, multi-polar monetary experimentation is becoming the new global normal. While the U.S. dollar is unlikely to be replaced outright, economic blocs are increasingly carving out their own regional value systems—some digital, some gold-anchored, some politically driven.

The post-dollar world may not come all at once—but piece by piece, bloc by bloc, and ledger by ledger.