TexPro Bi-Weekly: Latest Trends in Fibre & Textile Value Chains

Introduction:

The textile industry finds itself navigating a complex web of cost fluctuations, uncertain demand, and geopolitical tremors. From cotton yarn mills in North India slashing prices for the first time in months, to polyester manufacturers grappling with surging feedstock costs, and China’s flax market staging a tentative recovery; the fabric of global textile trade is in flux.

Our charts this week uncover critical shifts across key fiber and fuel markets, offering a sharp look at the underlying forces shaping strategies and sentiment across the value chain.

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Chart Highlights Summary:

• Cotton Yarn (North India): After 6–7 months of stability, cotton yarn prices have dropped ₹10/kg as major mills respond to weak domestic and export demand.
• Polyester Chain: Crude-linked input costs have spiked, but polyester fiber prices remain muted due to fragile demand—widening the margin squeeze across manufacturers.
• China’s Scutched Flax: A steep price correction over the past year shows early signs of stabilization, with import volumes rebounding amid sustainable textile demand.
• U.S. Fuel Prices: Gasoline prices saw a mild rise while diesel prices retraced earlier gains—both converging at $0.92/litre in May 2025, potentially impacting logistics and production costs.

Cotton yarn prices in North India had remained mostly stable for the last 6–7 months, with most mills holding prices at INR 260/kg. Some mills offered special discounts based on quantity and payment terms, but no official price cuts were announced during this time. However, the scenario has now shifted.

The largest mill in North India has recently reduced its prices by around ₹10/kg, signaling growing concern over sluggish demand and export competitiveness. With the cotton arrival season nearing its end and no visible recovery in demand, the cotton yarn sector in North India may be entering a price correction phase.

Crude oil and upstream feedstock prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The market quickly reacted, pushing up prices of key inputs like paraxylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG). Despite this sharp rise in raw material costs, polyester fiber prices have shown only modest increases.

This is largely due to weak global textile demand and growing buyer resistance to higher prices. In India and China, polyester staple fiber (PSF) prices were revised upward, but the rise has not matched the pace of upstream cost escalation. As a result, polyester manufacturers are facing growing margin pressure. Yarn spinners and fabric mills are particularly impacted, as they struggle to pass on increased costs to end-users amid slow orders and cautious buying.

At the same time, Chinese polyester producers are keeping plant operating rates steady, avoiding aggressive production due to concerns over inventory buildup and weak downstream demand. Futures pricing suggests the market expects cost pressure to persist in the short term. With U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese textile imports set for July 9, and uncertainty around further geopolitical developments, volatility in the polyester value chain is likely to continue. However, without stronger demand support, these cost-driven price hikes may prove difficult to sustain.

Scutched flax fiber import prices in China dropped significantly over the past year—from $9.69/kg in June 2024 to a low of $3.76/kg in March 2025, marking a cumulative decline of over 60%. The steepest monthly fall occurred in February 2025 (-23.83%), reflecting excess inventory and reduced buying momentum following a brief price peak just above $10/kg in mid-2024.

However, the market began to show signs of recovery in April and May 2025, with prices rising by 3.19% and 10.31% respectively—supported by improved buying interest and a strengthening euro, as most flax is sourced from Europe. In May 2025, China’s flax import volumes surged 180% year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery.

Although prices dipped slightly again in June 2025 (-3.04%), the overall trend suggests the market may be shifting toward greater stability. With European flax production expected to expand and sustainability-driven demand for linen holding strong, the outlook for flax fiber appears balanced and optimistic in the coming months.

The gasoline prices have seen a fluctuating trend with a slight increase in the overall trend in the last six months timeline. The prices of gasoline in Dec 2024 was 0.89 USD per litre and in May it was 0.92 USD per litre, an increase of 2.92%.

On the other hand, while at the start of the year the diesel prices was consistenty increasing, since Mar 2024 the diesel prices have fallen to the same price in May 2024 as Dec 2024 ie 0.92 USD per litre. The highest value of diesel in the last six months was in Feb 2024 at 0.97 USD per litre. In May 2025, the prices of Gasoline and Diesel are almost at the same price point in the United States.

Conclusion:

The fiber and fuel charts underscore a common thread; cost volatility without corresponding demand strength. Whether it's cotton, polyester, or flax, manufacturers are struggling to pass on rising costs in an environment where buyers remain cautious and inventory pressure looms large.

As geopolitical risks and trade policies continue to evolve, industry players will need to watch both upstream trends and downstream appetite with renewed urgency. The next few months could determine whether these price movements signal a deeper market reset—or just another ripple in an already turbulent year.

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