Tourism’s Broken Formula: The One That Could Rewrite Cape Town’s Future

When we co-created the CTT Futures Report 2039, the goal was simple but urgent: To break the dangerous assumption that yesterday’s playbook can shape tomorrow’s success.

The world is changing fast — climate shocks, digital disruption, shifting traveller values, divisive geopolitics and economic volatility. Cruise control won’t cut it.

So instead of making predictions, we mapped five plausible futures for Cape Town’s tourism economy. Each one is a choice. Each one has consequences.

The Journey So Far

In this series, we’ve explored four:

• Slaapstad — where Cape Town sleepwalks into mediocrity.

• Billionaires’ Burg — where tourism thrives, but inequality explodes.

• Good Hood — where cultural pride powers tourism… until gentrification takes over.

• Techy Town — where everything runs like code, and our soul gets deleted.

Each scenario taught us something: Comfort kills ambition. Exclusivity deepens divides. Culture without safeguards breeds displacement. And tech without touch erases meaning.

Now, we reach the fifth and final scenario. The hardest to achieve — and the only one worth fighting for: Mother City.

What Is Mother City?

Mother City is Cape Town at its boldest and most balanced:

• People thrive —> residents and visitors alike.

• Planet comes first —> zero waste, net-zero carbon.

• Partnerships power progress —> government, business, and communities co-create solutions.

• And the one thing that ties it all together: Purpose.

Because without Purpose, everything else is just projects.

The Formula for our Future

For decades, destinations extolled the triple bottom line: People. Planet. Profit.

But that model is broken.

Here’s the future-fit Cape Town Tourism formula:

(People + Planet + Partnerships) × Purpose = Prosperity

Why the multiplier? Because Purpose amplifies everything else. Without it, progress is fragmented. With it, impact compounds.

This is not a tagline. It’s a truly sustainable strategy.

Cape Town Has Done It Before — Can We Do It Again?

As Guy Lundy wrote in Business Day, Cape Town’s success was no accident.

Two decades ago, headlines called the city a “dying giant.” Businesses were leaving. Crime was rising. Confidence was collapsing.

What changed? Cape Town reimagined its future. We built catalytic projects — the CTICC, V&A Waterfront expansion, cruise terminal — and, more importantly, institutional resilience leadership succession, and common purpose.

That’s what turned Cape Town into SA’s leading city. But past success doesn’t guarantee the future. Cities rise or fall in decades, not election cycles. The next 15 years will decide Cape Town’s fate.

What Happens If We Fail?

• Housing affordability spirals, locking out the middle class.

• Infrastructure strain intensifies as migration accelerates from failing metros.

• Climate shocks hit harder; another Day Zero could cripple us.

If we get this wrong, Cape Town becomes a city for the few; a playground for privilege with inequality baked in.

The choice isn’t idealism vs. realism.

It’s courage vs. complacency.

How Do We Get There?

1. Make sustainability law, not a logo -> Enforce climate-positive standards and incentivise green compliance across every sector, tourism included.

2. Turn tourism levies into local dividends -> Ensure revenue circulates through communities, funding projects that make neighborhoods liveable and tourism meaningful.

3. Institutionalise leadership and partnerships -> Strong institutions outlive political cycles. We need citywide governance frameworks that protect progress, even through leadership changes.

4. Invest in human and digital skills -> Upskill for green and tech futures so locals aren’t left behind in the smart city shift. Smart cities must also be fair cities.

5. Build a Cape Town for all abilities and ages -> Mother City cannot just be inclusive in slogans — we must design for universal access:

• Wheelchair-friendly public spaces and attractions.

• AI-powered wayfinding tools for visually impaired visitors.

• Tourism routes and experiences that cater for older travellers without excluding the adventurous.

• Hotels, restaurants, and mobility services trained and equipped for differently-abled guests.

Accessibility is not an add-on.

It’s a competitive advantage and a moral imperative.

The Pushback — And Why It’s Misunderstood

Here’s what the critics may say and why I disagree:

• “This is naive idealism.” So was clean water, public transport, and universal education until leaders fought for them. Ambition isn’t utopia; it’s leadership.

• “Tourism can’t change a city.” Tourism touches housing, energy, culture, jobs. If tourism changes, everything changes.

• “We need rich foreign tourists to survive.” True, but domestic tourism is the lifeblood of resilience. Inclusivity isn’t a cost. It’s an insurance policy.

• “We can’t afford to slow growth.” If growth destroys affordability and deepens inequality, we lose the very soul that makes Cape Town desirable. Growth without balance is collapse on lay-bye.

Your Turn: What Future Do We Choose?

If you were Mayor for a day:

• What’s the first bold move you’d make to build this future?

• Can Cape Town prove that (People + Planet + Partnerships) × Purpose = Prosperity?

Drop your thoughts below. Let’s move from imagining futures to building them.