"The 'Trump Doctrine' in the Second Term: Challenges and Opportunities for Vietnam-US Relations

1. Economy: Trade Growth Amidst Protectionist Pressures In President Trump's second term, the "America First" agenda and protectionist trade policies will present significant challenges for Vietnamese exporters. The "Made in America" policy aims to promote US reindustrialization, which could lead to measures such as:

• Higher import tariffs and technical barriers: The Trump administration is expected to continue reviewing bilateral trade agreements and demand that Vietnam reduce its trade surplus with the US (currently exceeding $100 billion). This could result in anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations or higher tariffs on key export sectors such as textiles, footwear, furniture, and electronics.
• Supply chain diversification away from Asia: The Trump administration may push US companies to relocate their supply chains back to the US or to countries with closer ties to America, potentially reducing Vietnam’s role in the global value chain.
• Opportunities from supply chain shifts: However, the decoupling policy from China will drive many US corporations to move their supply chains to Vietnam. This presents an opportunity for Vietnam to become a critical link in the global supply chain, particularly in electronics and high-tech industries.

2. Political and Diplomatic: Balancing Amidst US-China Competition Trump's policy focus on containing China and countering Russia presents a delicate situation for Vietnam. The US will seek closer cooperation from Vietnam on regional security matters, especially in the South China Sea.

• Defense and security cooperation: The US may increase pressure on Vietnam to participate more deeply in security initiatives such as the US-Mekong Partnership and naval cooperation in the South China Sea.
• Impact on ASEAN: US policies that divide traditional allies in Europe and Asia could weaken ASEAN unity. Washington may encourage certain ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, to adopt a tougher stance on China, potentially affecting ASEAN’s consensus-driven approach that Vietnam values.
• Increasing dependence on the US: The Trump administration may encourage Vietnam to enhance economic, security, and ideological ties with the US.
• Human rights policies: With the conservative faction's return to Washington, the Trump administration may ease human rights pressure on Vietnam compared to previous administrations.

3. Regional Security: Impacts on the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific Strategy Trump's "peace through strength" doctrine will lead to continued robust US military presence in the South China Sea to deter China.

• Strengthening military cooperation: The US may push for the sale of military equipment such as surveillance aircraft, radar systems, and patrol ships to Vietnam.
• A tougher South China Sea policy: Vietnam should prepare for the possibility of intensified US freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS), which could provoke stronger reactions from China.

4. Investment and Technology: Opportunities to Attract FDI and Develop Industry 4.0 Trump's restrictive policies on China will create opportunities for Vietnam in investment and high-tech development:

• FDI attraction from US corporations: The US may encourage businesses to shift their investments to Vietnam in key sectors such as semiconductors, battery production, and artificial intelligence.
• Technology transfer: The US may support Vietnam through development cooperation programs, particularly in clean energy and digital technology, helping Vietnam reduce its dependence on China.
• Risks from protectionist regulations: Stricter US requirements on product origin and cybersecurity standards could impact Vietnamese businesses. Vietnam needs to proactively adjust its production strategies to meet these standards and mitigate risks.

This analysis underscores both the challenges and opportunities Vietnam may face under Trump's potential second term, requiring strategic planning to maximize benefits while mitigating risks.