Trump’s Tariff Thuggery and the Price America Must Pay

When a superpower behaves like a street bully, it loses not only respect abroad but also credibility at home. The Trump administration’s tariff war on India over Russian oil is not diplomacy. It is coercion dressed up as policy, swagger passed off as strategy. For India, the lesson is clear: strategic autonomy is not optional. For America, the consequences are heavier still, because ordinary Americans are the ones footing the bill for this theatre.

Tariffs as Blackmail

Washington’s punitive tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil are not rooted in economics. They are political theatre, designed to force New Delhi to abandon discounted crude purchases and align with Washington’s sanctions agenda. But tariffs are blunt weapons. They hurt American consumers more than they pressure India.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculates that Trump’s earlier tariff rounds cost the average U.S. household over $ 1,200 per year. His proposed new measures would push that burden above 2,600 dollars. Federal Reserve research confirms that these tariffs are passed directly into consumer prices, raising costs on everything from electronics to food. Far from being a leveraged against India, they are a self-imposed tax on American families.

India’s Energy Imperatives

India’s energy decisions are not negotiable indulgences. They are survival choices. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Russia supplied 41 per cent of India’s crude imports in May 2024, compared with Iraq’s 20 per cent and Saudi Arabia’s 11 per cent. With nearly 90 per cent of our oil imported, no Indian government can compromise supply security for another country’s geopolitical script.

The discounts on Russian barrels are significant. Reporting shows that the landed price of Russian crude was roughly 10 per cent lower than other grades in 2023–24, saving India over 5 billion dollars that year. Since 2022, cumulative savings run into tens of billions. These are resources that are kept in Indian households and industries, rather than being lost to market volatility. To give them up for someone else’s sanctions strategy would be to impose an inflation tax on 1.4 billion Indians.

Washington’s Hypocrisy

The contradictions are glaring. The G7 designed its price cap to keep Russian oil flowing and stabilise global prices. India, by buying within that framework, has prevented supply shocks. Yet the same US officials who once defended this policy now accuse India of undermining it.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has gone so far as to brand India a “bad actor” alongside Russia and China, while dismissing the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as “performative.” This is not the language of partnership. It is the vocabulary of coercion. Even John Bolton, no stranger to hawkish policy, has admitted that Trump’s tariffs have “shredded decades of efforts” to draw India closer to the West. In other words, Washington is destroying what it once built with respect through threats.

The Multipolar Reality

The SCO summit in Tianjin showed clearly that Washington no longer sets the terms of global order. More than 20 leaders, including from India, Russia, China, Iran, and Central Asia, met to discuss security and economic cooperation without the United States at the table. Prime Minister Modi’s meetings with Putin and Xi underscored that India will keep its doors open to all major powers.

By criticising India’s participation, Washington reveals not confidence but insecurity. Meanwhile, China is accelerating in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and green energy. Even US lawmakers admit Beijing is no longer catching up but leading. In this context, antagonising India is not a strategy. It is a sabotage of America’s own interests.

Who Pays the Price

The victims of this tariff thuggery are not in New Delhi. They are in Detroit, Dallas, and Des Moines. Tariffs raise costs for US manufacturers who rely on Indian pharmaceuticals, IT services, and supply-chain inputs. They inflate grocery bills and reduce export opportunities for American farmers and factories.

India–US trade is worth more than 200 billion dollars annually. Undermining that relationship to punish India for buying affordable oil is irrational. Worse, it drives India closer to Russia and China, precisely the outcome Washington says it wants to avoid.

India’s Course

India must stand firm. That means continuing to purchase energy where it is affordable and reliable, diversifying through the Middle East and US LNG, and expanding refining and storage capacity at home. It also means radical transparency: publishing data on landed prices and savings so that accusations of profiteering collapse under facts.

At the same time, India must deepen ties with American stakeholders beyond the White House. Governors, Congress, corporations, and labour unions all gain from stable India–US relations. They also feel the pain of tariffs. Building constituencies of support across the United States will make bullying harder to sustain.

A Message to America

India is not anti-American. It is pro-Indian. We will work with any administration that treats us as an equal partner and respects our sovereignty. But we will not submit to blackmail.

The United States faces a choice. If it wants India as a counterweight to China, it must replace coercion with respect and unpredictability with reliability. If it clings to tariffs, threats, and insults, it will find itself isolated in a multipolar world where others are ready to engage.

The real casualty of tariff thuggery is not India’s energy autonomy. It is America’s credibility as a leader of the democratic world. The victims are not Indian households but American families paying higher prices for everyday goods. The damage is not to India’s standing but to Washington’s ability to persuade others.

India will not bend. The world is moving forward in a multipolar direction. America must decide whether it will adapt with respect or be left behind in resentment.

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