TV in Australia if it remains unchanged has only 3 years of profitability left. The time for it to act is today if it wants to survive.

This week it was announced that Ten had exited Think TV in December and Kim Portrate was also leaving the organisation as CEO.

When the TV operators need to be working more closely together than ever, they appear on the outside to be splintering even more. 

This week I wrote a post of what I’d do if I was tasked with reversing the current slide and finding a way for a collective body to compete with a common threat. The post is below, but what I didn’t outline is how urgent this need is.

- transition Oztam from a measurement company to a technology business that provides the backbone of the local industry;

- reboot ThinkTV with more remit than just marketing, allowing it to devise and build industry wide solutions that make the channel easier to transact with, place it within New Oztam;

- collectively invest in a joint marketplace where all networks can be bought on one platform, without another intermediary tech cost layer, using VOZ ID as the unifier;

- go after the SME opportunity as a collective and use your assets metro and regional to scale this in terms of SME awareness fast;

- create a shared conversions API infrastructure to elevate outcome based measurement discussions;

- give Foxtel the equal seat at the table they need and bring them back into the fold;

- invest in ground up industry wide training and accreditation as 90% of people in media agencies can't plan/buy TV

- (edit) invite Netflix, Disney, hbo to the group so it's a video focused group (thanks Jon Bradshaw)

- be more assertive in demonstrating the benefits of the channel and be prepared to fight

From my calculations, if the current revenue trend continues (8-10% declines) and the cost base relative to these revenues remains the same (i.e. costs decline at a much lower rate than revenue due to critical sports and tentpole content being at a premium), the Seven and Nine TV operations will collectively be losing money in F27.

This would create a potential situation where EBITDA for these businesses collectively has gone from $571m in F23 to below zero in F27.

Let’s look at the current situation.

EBITDA of the two businesses dropped by a collective $191m in F24. Revenue was down $203m.

Seven’s half yearly results for December half of 2024 show that for Seven, revenue was down 51m and EBITDA was down $33m. So for every less dollar in, it had an impact of 65 cents out in the EBITDA line. Revenue keeps declining at a similar rate to the F24 full year.

It is hard to see how Nine’s results will be that different. After all, TV share doesn’t move that much and the cost base of the networks is pretty similar as they run similar operations. So let’s assume Nine for TV is probably going to tell a similar story to Seven.

But what happens if the same story plays out in the June half for both? After all, we have seen now 2 years of the same declines that many of us (including me) thought would be corrected pretty quickly.

This would mean they collectively for F25 will be looking at a combined $203m coming out of the TV revenue line, and combined EBITDA decreasing to $249 (down $131m in the 12 months)

If this trend plays out to F27 (steep revenue declines, ~60c in every lost dollar translating to EBITDA reductions), these businesses by F27 will be EBITDA negative. See below for an illustration.

Now this is a bear scenario, but it is based on what is occurring right now and I don’t see personally any indication this won’t change materially without radical intervention. Growth has remained challenging for all participants over the past 24 months, the category as a whole is in decline, and no operator has a high growth engine 2 story that can credibly demonstrate that revenue composition in F27 will look that different to how it looks now, with similar operating costs.

It is hard to get a read on the state of Ten, but in terms of revenue it is likely their non SVOD are more exposed to the category revenue declines than Seven or Nine as they play as a #3 choice. We can also assume SBS is also facing the same headwinds on their advertising line.

That means this TV collective likely have 3 years of survival in the current state. Foxtel is even harder to read now under impending new control but it does appear all in on positioning as a streaming ad play as opposed to a 'TV' one.

This means the changes the TV industry collectively have to make HAVE TO start this Monday. And these changes can’t take the 3-4 years VOZ took, because by then it’s probably all over. And personally I don't think it can make the same errors which have meant leaders like Kurt and Stepho are no longer involved - both of these were own goals that I don't believe improved how TV was sold and positioned.

Collectively they're more powerful than individually. Add Netflix, Amazon and Disney and it's even more powerful. Bring Foxtel back as a participant and not a limited observer and it's even stronger. More voices in market, more senior leaders with vision, more resource and a really interesting proposition. Be brutally honest with eachother about all the reasons why TV revenue is leaking and your collective contribution to it, and address all of these so they no longer are limiters. Find the things your competitors do badly and exploit these. Win by being better.

TV and video is the best medium for advertising. It generates incredible audience volume and engagement. It has the incredible power to shape trends and impact culture. It's just become really mediocre at positioning itself with confidence and successfully challenging the leakage of revenue into channels that are far less potent. All providers should act confident and assured, not hide meekly in the background of industry discourse hoping to not draw much attention to themselves. TV (and video more broadly) could and should have such a bright future but the opportunity of the light shining on it is dimming.

Now it's make or break. The numbers are stark and if the trends continue July 2026 will be the start of the year of real financial doom. I really hope the industry proves many of us wrong and works out a way to survive and thrive together before this. The can can't be kicked down the road any more. I hope on Monday will the key participants mobilise and progress will begin.