U.N. Climate Summit Endorsed Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, but Questions Remain

Half a loaf is better than none. That's the takeaway from the recently concluded United Nations global summit on climate change in the United Arab Emirates.

On December 13, nearly 200 nations signed the final declaration calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels" like oil, gas and coal that are contributing to global climate change. This was the first time that a U.N. climate event declaration even explicitly mentioned "fossil fuels," which some said was a sign of progress: nations were finally recognizing the cause-and-effect relationship between fossil fuel use and increased global temperatures. But that declaration lacked an enforcement mechanism and a timeline for how rapidly signatory nations should transition away from fossil fuels.

The salient section of the 21-page final summit communique "recognize(d) the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways" and called on the signatory nations to:

• Triple renewable energy capacity globally

• Double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030

• Accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power

• Accelerate efforts globally towards net-zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels before or by around mid-century

• Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science

• Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage (CCUS), particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production

• Accelerate and substantially reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030

• Accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero-and low-emission vehicles

• Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible

"Whilst we didn't turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end," said U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his closing speech. "Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay."

Prior to the event, numerous organizations, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France), stressed that bold and swift action was needed in the current decade to dramatically slash emissions of greenhouse gases, which would ward off the worst ravages of global warming, such as rising sea levels, withering drought, lethal heat waves and more powerful wildfires, storms and floods.

But the IEA said the measures agreed to at COP 28 were not nearly enough. In a statement issued before the final communique was issued, the IEA said if all nations fulfilled their commitments -- a very large if -- that would only lower global-energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 4 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030. That is about a third of the emissions gap that needs to be closed in the next six years to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Only some of those goals were agreed to at COP28. Whether the signatory nations, and oil companies, fulfil their commitments is another matter. The IEA's research has shown that countries were not even fulfilling their basic commitments from earlier climate summits.

Climate pessimists have ample reason to conclude the world is not yet committed to a rapid phase down or phase out of fossil fuels. Global coal use is expected to set another record in 2023. U.S. production of oil is at record levels. U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas also are surging. China and India continue to increase their use of coal to power their developing economies. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service projected that 2023 would be the warmest year in recorded history.

Those in the fossil fuel industry say the fight should be against greenhouse gases, not fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. They claim that widespread global deployment of carbon capture, use and sequestration (CCUS) will allow the world to continue reaping the benefits of fossil fuels while limiting emissions that scientists agree are heating the planet to dangerous levels. But those technologies have not been demonstrated at scale.

The official communique from the summit "recognize(d) that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security." Many observers noted that appeared to be shorthand for natural gas, which emits about 50% of the carbon dioxide as coal does when burned to generate electricity.

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