Understanding Artificial Intelligence Effects on Jobs

In 1981, when I began implementing my ERP solution in oil marketing companies serving industrial clients, farmers, and convenience stores, I noticed a striking trend. During the installation and training phase, the workforce of these companies was typically reduced by 50%. In essence, training employees to operate the new computer system streamlined operations so effectively that the company could function with half the staff, eliminating certain roles entirely.

This situation was so commonplace that as a Business Partner working with IBM, I was specifically warned not to use that information during the sales process. Interestingly, the staff reductions in these cases were not primarily driven by automation itself, but rather by the actions caused during the implementation phase of the systems, including computers and software.

In James Martin's trilogy, printed in 1989, the author wrote, "Because an enterprise is so complex, planning, analysis, design and construction cannot be achieved on an enterprise-wide basis without automated tools."

James Martin was a pioneering computer scientist and prolific author, widely regarded as an influential figure in the field of information technology. Born in 1933, he authored over 100 books, many of which focused on computing, system development, and the role of technology in shaping the future. His work played a vital role in popularizing structured methodologies for software development, and he was a strong advocate for using automation and computer-based tools in enterprise environments. Perhaps his most notable contribution was his foresight into how technology would transform businesses and society, as exemplified in his trilogy of books published in 1989, which explored enterprise-wide systems and their implementation. James Martin's contributions have left a lasting impact on modern computing and enterprise systems design.

Martin believed that most organizations have a poorly defined structure that was rarely documented and is subject to the whims and ideas of the next person in charge. For example: One of the common discussions I continue to find myself involved in is how different Walmart would be if Sam Walton were still alive today?

My belief is that over the next two to three years, as companies are forced to restructure their businesses, any jobs that can be performed by computers and or robotics will not be occupied by humans. However, something else will occur. Just as paralegals have taken over much of the mundane tasks that used to be left up to lawyers, and more and more nurse practitioners are being trained to take more of the load off of licensed physicians, both using data processing systems to augment their work will create a level of higher level position for workers who will specialize in certain areas.

I believe this sheds light on Trump's focus on trade schools. As the workforce shifts, employees with higher education and computer skills will increasingly replace those whose expertise is limited to manual labor, leaving the latter at risk of being phased out.

In the mid-1980s, as computer games gained popularity, parents often approached me for advice on whether to encourage their children’s interest in computers. My recommendation was to teach them how to analyze the data generated by computers, as I believed that, in the near future, computers would be capable of creating their own programs. That advice, I believe, remains just as relevant today.

When considering the impact of Artificial Intelligence on jobs, the divide between rich and poor is likely to widen, with the wealthy growing wealthier and the poor facing greater challenges. As for the middle class, the key to navigating this shift lies in developing expertise in trades that rely on human intelligence and interpersonal relationships—skills that AI cannot yet replicate. To remain relevant in the workforce, focus on building proficiency in areas that are likely to stay essential in the near future.

I would like to invite you to join us at Convenience Store Supply Chain Management on LinkedIn. We have over 18K members and it's a popular place to find unbiased information about the future of Convenience Stores and other similar retailers Please become a member as it helps to justify the costs of keeping it going. - Bill Scott