Until you can move Mountains - Geopolitical disruption is here to stay........
Paul Trevorrow
Despite technological advances and global connectivity, geography remains a fundamental force in international relations, often constraining the hand of world leaders. All leaders of nations are bound by geographic realities—their choices limited by mountains, rivers, deserts, and seas. This geographic determinism is nowhere more evident than in how nations positioned along strategic mountain ranges continue to wield disproportionate influence over global affairs.
The Enduring Power of Geographic Chokepoints
The modern assumption that technology has liberated us from geographic constraints proves dangerously naive. Geography often gets written out of discussions and analyses of historic and contemporary conflicts, when it should be the starting point for understanding international relations.
Consider the relationship between China and India: two massive countries with huge populations that share a very long border but are not politically or culturally aligned. Apart from one monthlong battle in 1962, they have never fought each other. The reason? Between them lies the highest mountain range in the world.
This Himalayan barrier doesn't just prevent conflict—it shapes the entire strategic calculus of both nations, forcing them to project power in different directions and seek alternative routes for trade and influence.
Mountains as Strategic Assets: The Russian Model
Russia's geographic situation provides perhaps the clearest example of how geographic realities drive national strategy. Geography is Russia's biggest asset and its biggest liability, from the immense and immensely flat North European Plain providing easy access to enemy tanks, to mountain ranges in all the wrong places.
Russia's geographic vulnerability on its western approaches has driven centuries of expansionist policy. The lack of natural barriers has made buffer zones essential for Russian security thinking, from Ivan the Terrible to Vladimir Putin. Russia's annexation of Crimea demonstrates how the need to retain access to warm-water ports continues to drive major geopolitical decisions in the 21st century.
The irony is that while Russia lacks defensive mountain barriers where it needs them most, it possesses vast mountain ranges—the Urals, the Caucasus, the ranges of Siberia—that segment its own territory and complicate internal unity and development.
China's Mountain Strategy: Control Through Geography
China's approach reveals a nation that has mastered the strategic use of mountainous terrain. China's actions in Tibet are based on its interest in enforcing its border with India, but the implications extend far beyond bilateral relations.
From the West we have the Karakoram mountain range and two crucial regions: Tibet and Xinjiang. Xinjiang is an important buffer territory: it borders 8 countries, is valuable for its oil and serves as home to China's nuclear weapon testing sites. By controlling these mountainous regions, China doesn't just secure its borders—it positions itself to influence the entire Central Asian region.
Tibet, in particular, represents a geographic prize of immense strategic value. Control of the Tibetan plateau gives China dominance over the headwaters of major Asian rivers, effectively providing leverage over billions of people downstream. The mountains that make Tibet difficult to govern also make it nearly impossible for external powers to contest Chinese control.
Energy Security and Mountain Corridors
Geographic chokepoints can hold entire continents hostage to political decisions, particularly when it comes to energy infrastructure. The pipelines that must traverse the Caucasus Mountains to bring Central Asian energy to European markets demonstrate this dynamic clearly.
Nations controlling these passes don't merely collect transit fees—they possess the ability to cut energy lifelines to major economies. This geographic leverage explains why conflicts in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have implications far beyond regional politics.
Similarly, China wants to avoid the risk of being dependent on the Malacca Strait, which could easily be closed in the case of conflict. This vulnerability drives China's Belt and Road Initiative, seeking alternative routes through mountainous terrain in Central Asia and the development of the strategically important deep port of Gwadar in Pakistan.
The Iran Model: Mountains as Force Multipliers
Iran showcases how mountainous geography can transform a middle power into a regional hegemon. The mountainous terrain of Iran means that it is difficult to create an interconnected economy, and that it has many minority groups each with keenly defined identities, but these same mountains provide extraordinary defensive advantages.
The Zagros Mountains don't just protect Iran's core territories—they provide launching points for influence projection across the Middle East. By supporting allied groups in the mountainous regions of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, Iran creates a network of geographic strongholds that complicate any military response from rivals.
This strategy exemplifies a key insight: geography doesn't just constrain options, it creates opportunities for those who understand how to exploit natural advantages.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities in the Modern Era
A geographic lens reveals critical vulnerabilities in our interconnected global economy. Business is affected by geopolitics, so in order to be successful, leaders need to understand what's driving global affairs.
Modern supply chains, optimized for efficiency, often depend on predictable transit routes through mountain passes that have remained strategically important for millennia. Recent disruptions have shown how single geographic chokepoints can cascade through global commerce, but mountain passes represent dozens of similar vulnerabilities controlled by nations that can manipulate access for political gain.
As climate change potentially opens new routes and closes others, the strategic value of certain mountain barriers will shift dramatically. Nations positioned along emerging corridors may find themselves with newfound leverage, while others may see their geographic advantages diminish.
Strategic Implications for the Modern World
Contemporary strategic planning must factor geographic realities into long-term decision-making, recognizing that geography is a deciding factor in processes of peace as well as war.
These lessons are particularly relevant as great power competition intensifies. Economic growth is giving China the confidence to spread their elbows in the South China Sea, leading to a powder keg of potential border disputes, while Russia's actions demonstrate how geographic imperatives can override economic considerations.
Understanding these dynamics helps explain why certain regional conflicts persist and why seemingly small nations continue to punch above their weight in international affairs. For professionals working in international business, energy security, or strategic planning, geographic frameworks aren't just academic—they're essential for navigating an increasingly complex global landscape.
The Unchanging Power of Mountains
The central message is both simple and profound: in geopolitics, geography is destiny. Various global examples challenge the widely held belief that technology is allowing humans to overcome the constraints and vulnerabilities imposed by geography.
The mountains may be ancient, but their strategic importance in our interconnected world has never been greater. Those who control strategic mountain barriers will continue to wield influence far beyond their apparent economic or military capabilities.
In an age of digital connectivity and global interdependence, it's tempting to believe that geography no longer matters. The evidence suggests otherwise—the physical world still shapes the political one in fundamental ways. For leaders and planners alike, ignoring these geographic realities isn't just shortsighted—it's dangerous.
A view from the Summit
While we can't move mountains, we can certainly see what's happening on the other side of them. Supply Wisdom's continuous monitoring solutions provide real-time visibility into supply chain risks across even the most geographically challenging regions. Our platform tracks disruptions, monitors geopolitical developments, and assesses risks across mountain passes, strategic corridors, and critical chokepoints worldwide—giving businesses the intelligence they need to navigate geographic constraints and build resilient supply chains that can withstand the realities of our geographically divided world.
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