In VUCA Times, Ask These Questions Before You Make a Decision

In her Harvard Business Review article, "In Uncertain Times, Ask These Questions Before You Make a Decision," Cheryl Strauss Einhorn addresses the challenges leaders face in today's volatile environment, characterized by geopolitical instability, climate shocks, and rapid technological advancements.

She emphasizes the importance of critical thinking to navigate this "perma-crisis" effectively. Einhorn identifies the "urgency trap"—the tendency to rush decisions under pressure—as a significant barrier to sound judgment.

In today’s perma-crisis world, waiting for stability is like waiting for a train that’s never coming.

 When everything around you feels unsteady, four questions can serve as strategic tools to help you work through ambiguity, reframe risk, and strengthen your decision-making muscles:

1) What decision today will still make sense a year from now?

2) If a year from now this decision was used as an example of our leadership, what would it teach?

3) What if this isn’t the storm—what if it’s the climate?

4) What’s the cost of waiting?

 Your answers to these questions will reveal faulty assumptions, spotlight hidden opportunities, and help you focus on what’s within your control.

To counter this, she advocates for deliberate decision-making practices:

●Question Assumptions and Biases: Leaders should critically assess their preconceptions to avoid narrow thinking.

●Reason Through Logic: Analyzing arguments for validity and being aware of logical fallacies can lead to more rational decisions.

●Listen Actively and Openly: Engaging with diverse perspectives enhances understanding and uncovers blind spots.

●Ask Better Questions: Formulating thoughtful, open-ended questions can reveal deeper insights and alternatives.

●Create Space for Deliberation: Allocating time for reflection, even brief pauses, can improve decision outcomes.

By integrating these strategies, leaders can make more informed and resilient decisions amidst uncertainty.