We need to make net zero deliverable, not just desirable

The report published by the much-respected Tony Blair Institute (TBI) (The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change) caused me to reflect on the fresh focus that is being given to the question that is increasingly being asked as to whether there is a better way to deliver net zero.

The TBI report highlighted a central cause for this debate: that people feel they are being asked to shoulder the financial and lifestyle burdens of climate policy without seeing tangible returns. There is a suggestion the public is losing faith in and patience with the Government’s net zero approach - “asking voters to make financial sacrifices” and that current policy solutions run the risk of:

“…distorting the debate into a quest for a climate platform that is unrealistic and therefore unworkable”.

This resonates with what has been termed the Tragedy of the Horizons[1] - a term popularised by Mark Carney when he was Governor of the Bank of England originating from the Belgian economist Christian Gollier where:

“The fruits from the sacrifices individuals and organizations could undertake today to protect resources will mostly be enjoyed in the very long term. This is particularly relevant in the context of natural resources preservation and to the climate commons since individuals must sacrifice current wellbeing for benefits which will mostly be enjoyed by future generations, which undermines political support in favour of climate regulation.”

This is analogous with the more familiar Tragedy of the Commons[2] where individual desires and actions become at odds with the wider benefits of what is good for society and the environment, in this case in the longer term.

What are customers saying?

It is clear that customers are becoming increasingly confused and sceptical of net zero and their role in delivering it, often fuelled by the media.

Research Cadent undertook as part of its ongoing insight work, which fed into its RIIO-3 plan[3], revealed that the vast majority of our customers (74%) believe they are taking on all of the actions they can afford to take to tackle net zero (an aspiration they nevertheless largely support). They expect large scale environmental improvements to be delivered by the Government and large companies (like Cadent).

Similarly research undertaken by British Gas[4] in 2024 pointed to the need for financial support for homes to make the changes necessary to help deliver net zero.

The politics are turning against net zero…

We’re seeing more and more that net zero has become a barometer for political sentiment, marking the turning tide of politics where the ideological fissure between the Conservatives or Reform and Labour is steadily widening – with the net zero sceptics on one side, the supporters on the other. Even within its own party, Labour is becoming divided, with former Home Secretary Lord Blunkett referring to the changes needed as potentially “electorally toxic” in the Telegraph over the weekend – underpinned by the rise in Reform as seen at the recent local council elections.

We’ve already seen this rhetoric play out elsewhere too – most notably in Germany in 2023, where law changes requiring all new heating systems to run on at least 65% renewables, effectively banning new oil and gas boilers. This was dubbed by newspapers as the “heating hammer” allowing the far right to make substantial political headway in ‘weaponising’ heat pumps.

As the TBI raises, never has it been harder to have a sensible discussion about net zero without inciting furore on both sides of the debate – when a rational conversation is exactly what we need right now, particularly on contentious issues we haven’t even really scratched the surface on yet such as carbon pricing, as a route to dealing with the Tragedy of the Horizons.

Providing options customers can more easily adopt

We will increasingly need to give customers options that are acceptable to them and make the transition as easy as possible.

Hybrid heating systems utilising smaller heat pumps and keeping gas boilers in situ are one such option which are being heavily supported in mainland Europe[5]. Such an option can cut carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to gas heating systems. The government doesn’t currently support hybrid systems through its Boiler Upgrade Scheme, despite being significantly cheaper than heat pumps.  Adding this technology would be a fantastic and straightforward policy decision, cutting carbon emissions and supporting people in making decisions which benefit themselves and the environment.

Together with the increased use of green gases like biomethane in the gas network, this could give us a plausible path to decarbonising home heating and contributing to the delivery of net zero whilst not requiring wholesale changes to people’s homes.

We also need to be cognisant of those customers remaining on the gas network if there are a lot of people switching to heat pumps - and not make it even harder for people ‘left behind’.

Suggestions of moving electricity policy costs onto gas bills, for example, would disadvantage vulnerable customers who rely on gas if there were a significant uptake of heat pumps. Analysis Cadent has undertaken[6] on this issue shows that the average household only using electricity (e.g. with a heat pump) would pay only £47 of the policy costs a year by 2035, compared to £1,045 a year for a duel fuel customer remaining on gas - if such costs were shifted on to a smaller pool of remaining gas customers.  This would clearly have dire consequences for the most vulnerable in society.

The way ahead

A new pragmatism on net zero is going to be needed, and one with customers at its centre. We cannot hope to deliver something as crucial as net zero unless we take customers and society along with us – and at a pace that works for them, rather than sprinting for unfeasible looming targets and putting the expense of such speed on our consumers.

A customer-centric approach is now crucial in giving people solutions not problems whilst allowing and driving innovation to deliver options – which in a radically uncertain world, we are going to need. Closing down options and homing in on specific technologies as a ‘silver bullet’ does not make sense and runs counter to the logic of ‘real options’ where course corrections maybe needed particularly as technological change occurs.

In short, we need to make net zero deliverable, not just desirable. We need to focus on what we have to do, rather than what we would like to happen.  That means focusing less on what people must give up and more on what changes we can make now. In due course, we will need greater political support to make the changes that will be required in the way we all live our lives.  The road ahead is going to be bumpy.

[1] Climate economics from theory to policy, C. Gollier (2020)

[2] The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, Garrett Hardin (1968)

[3] Keeping people warm while protecting the planet – Our RIIO-3 Business Plan 2026-2031(2024)

[4] British Gas Net Zero Action Rankings - How does the UK public feel about the journey to net zero? (2025)

[5] The scope for using hybrid systems in home heating (2025)

[6] How to pay for energy policy – The options for allocating costs (2024)