Weekly Climate and Decarbonisation Update

Climate Politics

Labor keeps ‘dire’ climate report under wraps (The Australian Financial Review): The federal government has delayed the release of highly detailed government modelling outlining the severe economic, environmental and budgetary risks posed by the effects of climate change, just weeks ahead of its decision on a new 2035 emissions reduction target. The analysis, conducted by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, includes estimates of heat-related fatalities, detailed suburb-level mapping of coastal inundation from sea level rises and “shocking” forecasts of impacts on the agricultural sector.

Risks of climate crisis to Australia’s economy and environment are ‘intense and scary’, unreleased government report says (The Guardian): An unreleased Australian government report on the economic and environmental risks posed by the climate crisis is “intense and scary”, and confronting even for those who work in the area, according to people familiar with the assessment. The delayed report – the national climate risk assessment – includes modelling of future climate damage, estimates of the number of people who could be killed by worsening heatwaves and a mapping tool that forecasts flooding risk in suburbs across the continent.

Foreign investment barriers put Labor’s renewables ambitions at risk (The Australian Financial Review): The high cost of the federal government’s foreign investment review process is stalling much needed international capital flowing into the country’s clean energy transition, the Financial Services Council has argued in its submission to Jim Chalmers’ productivity roundtable this month. The industry group, whose members include AMP, BT Group, JP Morgan and ING, said encouraging foreign investment was crucial if the government was to meet its ambitious climate targets, including net zero emissions by 2050.

ALP veteran urges rethink on climate policies (The Australian): Outspoken former Labor minister Joel Fitzgibbon is urging the government to reconsider its climate policies before the economic reform roundtable.

Four levers the Productivity Commission misses for least cost to net zero (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis): The Productivity Commission’s latest report identifies major gaps in Australia’s current emissions reduction policies, but overlooks important levers for achieving net zero at least cost. The report does not consider opportunities to improve energy efficiency and flexibility and to upgrade inefficient electricity network regulation and pricing, which could reduce emissions while cutting energy bills and reduce the need for large-scale electricity investment. Coal and gas exports currently represent between 20 and 25% of Australia’s emissions; reducing fugitive methane emissions and applying greater scrutiny to new coal and gas developments could cut those emissions while delivering material economic benefits.

China and India win Bowen’s green tick (The Australian): Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has lauded China and India, the world’s two biggest polluters, for their ‘astounding’ take-up of renewables while still building new coal power plants.

Right-wing group targets ‘weakling’, Liberals, as Hastie pushes Ley to dump net zero (The Sydney Morning Herald): Our message is simple: Dump Net Zero, or we dump YOU,” lobby group Advance said in an email to Coalition MPs.

NSW pumps up solar, wind and energy storage targets (PV Magazine): New South Wales (NSW) has upped its renewable energy ambitions, announcing new targets of 16 GW of new generation by 2030, significantly above the existing 12 GW minimum objective, and 42 GWh of new long-duration storage infrastructure by 2034, exceeding the existing 28 GWh goal. ASL, in its role as NSW Consumer Trustee, has published two new reports outlining the updated renewable energy targets and an accelerated timetable of capacity auctions as it seeks to bring more renewable energy online to account for the impending closure of the state’s ageing coal-fired power plants.

Government-funded nuclear is fine for Dan Tehan, but not renewables or climate initiatives (Renew Economy): From the party that promised seven taxpayer funded nuclear reactors, now comes a call to enforce pure free-market economics on all things renewable and climate related, at least according to new shadow energy minister Dan Tehan. Tehan’s speech to the Carbon Market Institute’s emissions summit in Melbourne on Thursday was a pitch for renewable energy and climate initiatives to be turned over to competitive markets.

Gas import plan shelved as states consider options (The Australian Financial Review): A controversial plan to stave off looming east coast gas shortfalls by underwriting new LNG import terminals has been indefinitely delayed as interstate disagreements and a broader overhaul of the market could push back the need for overseas sources. The Victorian-led proposal, which has yet to be signed off by state and territory ministers, would allow Australia’s energy market operator to underwrite the construction and operation of gas import terminals on the east coast, with the costs shared among states and recovered via consumer energy bills.

“We are hoping to see genuine competition:” ACCC puts virtual power plants on its radar (Renew Economy): Virtual power plants (VPP) are in the competition watchdog’s scope to ensure the runaway success of the federal battery rebate doesn’t lock consumers into unfair aggregation contracts. Concerns include households being locked into VPPs based on physical infrastructure, a situation the Australia Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is still fighting in relation to payment systems on mobile phones. 

Corporate Social Responsibility

‘Corporate lackey’: Green groups warn Labor on renewables rollout (The Australian Financial Review): Some of Australia’s most influential green groups have warned Labor that any attempt to use the slow renewables rollout as an excuse to water down nature protections under revamped environmental laws will fail, and undermine support for the energy transition. The environmental organisations, which include Greenpeace, WWF and the Australian Conservation Foundation, also insist that responsibility for enforcing revised laws needs to rest with an independent agency, rather than the government of the day.

Carbon levy on imports will level playing field: Stokes (The Australian): Seven Group boss Ryan Stokes has called for a carbon tax on imports to protect Australian industry from overseas competitors with lower emissions standards.

Western Australia faces 'growing shortfall' of increasingly expensive gas: EnergyQuest (Boiling Cold): Australia's most gas-dependent state has flipped from promising cheap abundance to facing expensive shortages in just six years: investors beware. Western Australia is heading toward a gas supply crunch, with prices more than doubling since 2019 and further tightening looming as two coal-fired power stations close by 2029, according to new analysis from energy consultancy EnergyQuest.

NSW councils and farmers call for halt to renewable energy developments (ABC News): Two NSW councils are calling for a halt on future renewable energy projects in their areas. The Upper Lachlan and Yass districts are home to 42 per cent of the state's wind turbines. Third-generation farmer Emma Webb believes the region surrounding her family's property on the NSW Southern Tablelands is becoming an "industrial junkyard" due to the rollout of renewable energy projects…Ms Webb said while farmers understood the impacts of climate change, she wanted to see a "better balance" with the rollout of renewables. "People in the cities delegate the enormous responsibility of growing their food to farmers and we do that under very difficult circumstances," she said. "Now we are also being lumped with the burden of energy production."

Most people in regions support renewables, but the window to seal the deal is closing fast (Renew Economy): With 70% of people in renewable energy regions backing Australia’s shift to clean energy, the opportunity to lock in enduring support is here – but the window is closing fast. This week, energy and climate ministers meet with the clock ticking on Australia’s 2030 renewable energy targets. The projects that will make or break those targets are now racing into approvals and construction. In the regions that will host them, the support to proceed is within reach – but far from guaranteed. The Striking a New Deal for Renewables in Regions report shows 70% of people in renewable energy zones back a shift to renewables. That’s a strong base – but highly conditional. Communities want tangible benefits, genuine influence, and respect for their environment and way of life. Without action now, that goodwill could evaporate.

Carbon Markets

Climate Change Minister flags new carbon market rules (Capital Brief): The news: The Australian government will allow two new methods to create the Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) that are OTC and exchange-traded in voluntary and regulatory markets. The numbers: Two exposure drafts for new legislation covering carbon sequestration as well as one covering the use of landfill gas, will be released. The context: Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Assistant Climate Change and Energy Minister Josh Wilson will flag the new exposure drafts, for which carbon market participants have been lobbying, in a speech to the Carbon Market Institute conference in Melbourne on Thursday morning.

Green Projects and Initiatives

Renewable energy investment drops as projects dry up (The Australian): Clean energy investment has fallen to just a third of what's needed to meet Australia's 2030 renewable targets, as crucial battery storage also hits two-year low.

Hornsdale Wind Farm under new ownership (The Energy): Atmos Renewables has agreed to acquire Neoen’s majority interest in the 316MW Hornsdale Wind Farm in South Australia. With this acquisition – and construction now underway on the Merredin BESS in Western Australia – Atmos said it will become the only owner-operator with renewable generation assets across all NEM and WEM-connected states. The acquisition will also take its internally managed portfolio above 1GW for the first time – a key milestone in the continued growth of the company’s operational capability. 

Blackstone Secures Future with Renewable Power (Mirage News): A new hybrid renewable energy project jointly funded by the Cook and Albanese governments will deliver safer, more reliable and cleaner energy to the remote Western Australian community of Blackstone (Papulankutja). The Blackstone Hybrid Energy Project was officially launched at an on-Country event on the Ngaanyatjarra Lands near the South Australian and Northern Territory borders. A solar farm and battery system will be built to deliver power of up to 80 per cent renewables for the community of 176 people, 1,575 kilometres north-east of Perth.

Lightweight and low maintenance: Australian solar pioneer unveils integrated PV for metal rooftops (Renew Economy): Perth based solar glass innovator ClearVue Technologies has launched a “lightweight and low maintenance” integrated solar power solution engineered specifically for installation on metal rooftops. Unveiled during an investor update on Wednesday evening, the new ClearVue-Helios is billed as a “cutting-edge” solar option for metal roofed buildings that can deliver 200 watts (W) per square metre. As an added bonus, the proprietary mounting system helps to create a sealed secondary roof surface and an air gap that can keep buildings up to 30 per cent cooler, while also serving as a protective layer, extending the lifespan of the roof itself.

New four-hour big battery seeks green tick for Queensland coal country (Renew Economy): A new four-hour big battery proposed for Queensland coal country has joined the queue for assessment by the federal government, under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act. The up to 440 megawatts (MW) and 1760 megawatt-hour (MWh) battery energy storage system (BESS) is being proposed for development by Acen Australia in Lilyvale in Queensland’s Central Highlands region, 52 km north-east of Emerald.

Andrew Forrest-backed wind project back before EPBC, this time for grid connection (Renew Economy): A 400 megawatt (MW) wind project backed by iron ore billionaire Andrew Forrest has returned to the federal environmental process, this time to find out whether the connection work needs oversight. Gawara Baya, the wind project formerly known as the Upper Burdekin wind farm in north Queensland, won its final EPBC tick late last year. Now the reportedly $1.4 billion project is back on the EPBC notices, with a request to find out whether plans to connect the project to the local grid will also need oversight. 

ICA Partners shops 2-gigawatt-plus renewables portfolio in Queensland (The Australian Financial Review): A 49 per cent stake in an early-stage portfolio of wind, solar and battery projects in Central Queensland has hit the auction block, with its bankers talking up the opportunity created by the closure of coal-fired power plants and the arrival of data centres in the region.

Igneo’s renewables biz raises $400m to buy Neoen wind farm; Cbus in (The Australian Financial Review): Brookfield has only just finalised a deal to sell the Victorian assets of its newly acquired Neoen renewable energy platform – and it’s already thinking about its next deal, considering the sale of a majority stake in South Australia’s Hornsdale Wind Farm north of Adelaide. The Canadian asset manager spent $10 billion buying the French renewables developer and its sprawling Australian assets, but was forced to offload the Victorian portfolio to defray competition concerns. Thankfully, David Di Pilla’s HMC Capital turned up and secured the asset.

“Strong interest:” SunCable rejects claims it’s struggling to raise capital, says solar export plan still a go (Renew Economy): SunCable, the developer of what could be the world’s biggest renewable energy project in the Northern Territory, says efforts to raise fresh capital are “progressing well” and gathering “strong interest from multiple investors,” and insists that plans to pipe solar power overseas are still on the table. The potential $35 billion project is on the hunt for patient capital and like-minded collaborators since securing environmental approval for its first stages, which include up to 10 gigawatts (GW) of solar and up to 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage.

Start-up banks millions for plan to make residential solar panels free (The Australian Financial Review): National Renewable Network, a renewable energy start-up with an ambitious plan to reshape residential rooftop solar by removing upfront costs for consumers, has secured $67 million in capital to begin installing panels and batteries at houses. The premise for the company is that thousands of Australians want to have solar panels and batteries at their homes but many cannot afford the equipment and installation costs. Working through reseller power companies, NRN promises to install and maintain panels for free; consumers would pay less for electricity by buying back solar power from the providers.

NSW solar and storage project greenlit for decommissioned coal mine site (PV Magazine): Swedish renewable energy developer OX2 has received environmental approval to build the 135 MW Muswellbrook solar farm at a decommissioned coal mine in the Hunter region of New South Wales (NSW), to be located in the Hunter Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone (REZ). The solar farm will also feature a two-hour battery energy storage system (BESS) and both arms of the project are anticipated to be in operation by 2027, 130 kilometres northwest of Newcastle.

Hunter Valley solar and battery project next to shuttered coal mine gets federal green tick (Renew Economy): A contested solar and battery project in the heart of New South Wales coal country has been cleared for construction after getting the green tick of environmental approval from the federal government. Renewables developer OX2 said on Wednesday it has received EPBC approval for the Muswellbrook solar and storage project, as part of plans to convert the oldest open cut mine in the Hunter Valley into a renewable energy precinct that may also include green hydrogen. The 135 megawatt (MW) solar farm and 135 MW/270 megawatt-hour (MWh) battery will be installed adjacent to the Muswellbrook Coal Mine, which ceased operations in 2022, on land primarily owned by mine operator and project co-developer Idemitsu Australia.

Wind turbine prototype helps power Main South Road construction site (ABC News): A small-scale wind turbine with a different axis design to what has been traditionally used has been developed in Adelaide. Those behind the prototype say the turbine has received interest from small businesses and farmers.

Game changer HumeLink invites clean energy developers to get connected (PV Magazine): The new 500 kV HumeLink transmission line, which is anticipated to unlock an extra 3,000 MW of renewable energy into the grid, has achieved ‘considered project’ status under the National Electricity Rules (NER), allowing official connection enquiries to be formally lodged.

No more outages (Energy Magazine): In a move that marks a significant step toward complete solar independence, Fronius Australia has a new high-performance battery storage system designed to meet the demands of Australian households and small businesses. With this addition of its Reserva battery, Fronius closes the loop on its vision of providing a full solar energy system from a single, trusted source, delivering inverter, battery and monitoring all under one roof.

Other Matters of Interest

Australia’s time has come to be a green energy-intensive export superpower Rod Sims (The Guardian): One really big idea is to take the steps necessary to see Australia become a renewable energy superpower by exporting green energy-intensive products such as green iron, green aluminium, green transport fuels and green fertilisers. Australia is blessed with some of the best solar and wind resources with world-best availability factors, and comparatively little of this is needed domestically. These significant resources can be used to make energy-intensive exports. The key point to understand is that in the fossil fuel world it is low cost to transport, for example, our iron ore, coking coal, gas and thermal coal to north-east Asia where they are used to make iron and steel.

Half the price, a lot more dense, but still very smart: Why baseload giant has doubled down on big batteries (Renew Economy): AGL Energy remains Australia’s biggest coal generator and will likely hold that title for another few years, at least until its Bayswater coal generator in NSW’s Hunter Valley shuts down some time in the early 2030s. It means that AGL will remain the biggest supplier of what was once known as “baseload” power, but it is also now in a massive rush to build as much as it can of the polar opposite – fast reacting and flexible battery storage that is becoming the key ingredient in a high renewables grid. AGL CEO Damien Nicks on Wednesday told investors that the company is building big batteries “as quickly as it can”, having committed last week to its biggest yet, a 500 megawatt (MW), 2,000 megawatt hour (MWh) project at Tomago, and said it is lining up another 900 MW more at various sites across the grid.

Australia’s biggest energy retailer hits go slow button on wind and solar, mulling options on Eraring (Renew Economy): Origin Energy, Australia’s biggest energy retailer, appears to have hit the go-slow button on the rollout of new renewable energy projects, and is still mulling options on the already extended Eraring coal generator, the country’s biggest, which is officially due to close in 2027. Origin on Thursday revealed that it had reaped the dividends of its investment in the LNG industry, which helped boost its underlying profits to $1.49 billion in 2024/25, from $1.18 billion a year earlier.

Australia faces slowdown as investment in solar and wind falls 64% in 2025 (PV Magazine): Australia will need to ramp up the pace of its renewable energy transition to meet its clean energy targets with a new report from research organisation BloombergNEF (BNEF) highlighting a slowdown in investment as the industry faces “strong headwinds.” BNEF has released its Australia Market Outlook for the first six months of 2025, revealing that investment in solar and wind declined 64% compared to the same period last year. The report shows that in the first half of 2025, Australia saw $556 million (USD 363 million) of investment in utility scale solar, down from $1.6 billion in the same period in 2024. No new wind projects reached financial close in the first six months of the year – a result last observed in 2021.

Australia's rooftop solar and batteries now the main game as large-scale transition flounders (ABC News): As Australia's energy transition hits turbulence, a quiet but fundamental shift is underway. Faced with long delays, huge cost blowouts and staunch opposition from some quarters, the push to build large-scale projects from wind farms to transmission lines is becoming increasingly fraught. In the past few weeks alone, there's been a series of large-scale setbacks.

Wind and solar lulls may not be as bad as thought, but they could be expensive (Renew Economy): A major new study into anticipated wind and solar lulls in Australia’s biggest state grid – the first of its kind – has concluded that they may not be as bad as once thought, but they have every chance of being expensive. The report by ASL, formerly AEMO Services and a subsidiary of the Australian Energy Market Operator that acts as the consumer trustee in NSW, has been released as part of a series of reports into the state’s energy generation and infrastructure needs. It includes a call to rapidly increase the number and scale of tenders to ensure enough capacity is built by 2030, and the following five years, to fill in the gap caused by the retirement of all the state’s remaining coal fired power generators, which could happen as early as 2034.

The $13 billion market for batteries to smooth out data centre spikes (Renew Economy): Perhaps the two biggest changes to the way electricity grids are managed are the rapid evolution of battery storage and its associated smarts, and the sudden surge in demand from data centres and AI. Both are operating at a speed and flexibility not previously imagined by the designers of centralised, fossil fuel grids. US-based battery supplier Fluence, which recently landed $A1.1 billion of contracts for two Australian big battery projects, including its largest ever (500 MW, and 2,000 MWh) at Tomago, says the market prospects for battery storage smoothing out the grid consumption of data centres are enormous.