Weekly Review

PV Market News This Week:

1.      Record solar output in Europe drives rise in negative price hours

The growing frequency of negative electricity prices in Europe is driven primarily by rising levels of solar generation, according to a report from energy research firm Montel Analytics.

In its European electricity market summary for the second quarter of 2025, Montel Analytics said that almost all European countries are experiencing an increased number of negative price hours this year, with the trend expected to continue into the future.

Sweden’s SE2 price zone recorded the largest number of negative price hours in the six months to the end of June, totaling 506. The report said this was driven by “unusually strong hydro inflows, transmission bottlenecks, changes to flow-based market coupling and renewable buildout.”

Elsewhere, the number of negative price hours also exceeded 300 in Spain (459), the Netherlands (408), Germany (389), France (363), Belgium (361), Finland (363) and Denmark 1 (326).

Montel Analytics attributed the increased frequency in below-zero prices to a record level of solar generation in the three months to June, reaching 104.4 TWh for the second quarter of 2025, combined with a lack of storage and flexible demand to absorb surpluses.

Jean-Paul Harreman, director at Montel Analytics, said he expects negative power prices to reach record levels across parts of Europe during the third quarter of this year. He said this will be driven by “continued renewables expansion without a commensurate increase in underlying demand … Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium are likely to continue experiencing sharply negative prices in the afternoon, followed by high prices in the evening as fossil fuel capacity ramps up.”

He added that a similar pattern is emerging in parts of southeastern Europe.

“However, limitations in grid infrastructure and cross-border interconnection capacity are expected to reduce this region’s ability to benefit from lower prices in neighboring markets,” said Harreman.

Earlier this week, London-based think tank Ember said that record solar generation across the European Union was key to stabilizing the continent’s power supply during the recent heatwave.

2.      Poland added 637 MW of solar during Q1

Poland’s solar capacity reached 21,994 MW by the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to a new report from the country’s Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO).

The figure means 637 MW of solar was added across Q1 2025, building on the 21,157 MW deployed by the end of last year.

IEO’s Photovoltaic market in Poland 2025 report says the structure of the country’s solar market is changing.

The share of micro-installations, of less than 50 kW in size, decreased from 64% at the end of 2024 to 60% by the end of Q1 2025, while the share of installations between 50 kW and 1000 kW in size fell from 25% to just under 22% in the same time frame. In contrast, the share of solar farms above 1 MW increased from 11% to 20% over the first three months of this year.

According to a social media post by Grzegorz Wiśniewski, president of the board of the institute, there are currently 3,286 photovoltaic projects with issued grid connection conditions being developed in Poland, with a total capacity of 21,887 MW.

Of these projects, 1,389 projects with a total capacity of 3,537 MW have concluded connection agreements and 532 projects with a combined capacity equalling 950 MW have valid building permits. Participation in this month’s renewable energy auction in Poland is limited to projects that have already obtained building permits.

Wiśniewski added that Poland’s photovoltaic industry is currently focused on large projects, particularly those larger than 50 MW.

IEO’s report also sheds light on the growing use of PV curtailments in Poland. It says the mechanism has “become a regular system balancing tool, not an incidental emergency measure” and warns Poland is joining a list of countries “where excess PV capacity in the national energy system is a real operational challenge.”

The institute also notes that PV profile prices on the energy market are falling against both the average energy price and hourly and monthly wind energy prices. It says the pace of development of new investments is slowing down as a result, which may threaten the country's energy transition goals.

Among recommendations for Poland's solar industry outlined in IEO’s report are combining solar development with the heating sector as a flexible consumer of solar, implementing dynamic tariffs for all energy consumers and investments in solar hybrid projects that feature wind and battery storage facilities.

3.      Italy’s latest renewables auction attracts 17.5 GW of solar project proposals

The first solar energy auction under Italy's new incentive scheme for renewable energy, the “transitional” FER X program, has attracted 1,387 project proposals with a combined capacity of 17,537 MW, according to Italian energy agency GSE.

Prequalified project developers have until Sept. 12 to submit final offers.

The auction also accepted proposals for wind power projects, which totaled 2.87 GW. No bids were submitted for hydropower or residual gas from depuration processes.

Italian authorities expect to allocate more than 600 MW of solar photovoltaic capacity through the auction.

“The data confirm excellent participation in photovoltaics and a trend consistent with expectations for wind power,” said Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. ” The increase in renewable sources is moving in the direction desired, leading to a progressive reduction in energy prices. Thanks to targeted measures and incentives for businesses, costs borne by consumers will tend to decrease, generating concrete benefits for families and the production system.”

In the previous tender under the earlier version of the FER X scheme, which is Italy’s 16th such auction, the GSE awarded 278.5 MW of solar capacity across 53 sites and approved two wind projects totaling 88.4 MW.

Developers submitted maximum discounts ranging from 2.01% to 7.91% off the auction ceiling price of €0.078175 ($0.084949)/kWh. The lowest accepted bid was €0.07199/kWh for a 2.7 MW solar plant in the province of Ancona, central Italy.

4.      Solar becomes top source of electricity in California

Over the past year, solar generation surpassed natural gas to become California’s leading source of electricity, a milestone expected to persist.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), processed by Ember’s US Electricity Data Explorer, shows that in the 12 months ending April 2025, solar generated 83.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity, compared to 81.6 TWh from natural gas.

During that period, California generated a total of 244.9 TWh, with solar accounting for 33.9% of the state’s electricity and gas contributing 33.3%.

Natural gas accounts for nearly all fossil fuel use in California’s power generation, with just 0.1% of the state’s electricity coming from coal and 0.02% from other fossil sources. In total, about two-thirds of the state’s electricity now comes from emissions-free sources.

The shift in rankings between solar and gas is primarily due to the sharp increase in solar generation, though natural gas has also declined as a share of the mix.

5.      How community solar is impacted by the One Big Beautiful Bill

In the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, developers are working to ensure their projects are developed under the tightened timeline to qualify for the tax credit. A failure to do so means the project’s financials are less likely to pencil in.

President Donald Trump’s executive order earlier this week directed the Treasury to apply tighter restrictions to 45Y production tax credit and 45E investment tax credit for solar and wind projects.

Most notably, however, the executive order tightened the legislation’s “beginning of construction” language, requiring a “substantial portion” of a project to be built within 12 months. The order did not specify what level of progression qualifies as “substantial.”

The two foremost federal incentives that support community solar, 45Y production tax credit and 45E investment tax credit are going to be eliminated by projects not placed in service by the end of 2027.

Community solar projects usually have more complex logistics and stakeholders than residential projects. Duncan, Weinberg, Genzer & Pembroke advised that developers moving quickly to get their projects developed in time to qualify for tax credits should pause to assess their pipeline and prioritize the projects that they are most confident will reach completion. This will help prevent projects in the pipeline from collectively dragging by a developer focused on too many projects at once.

Developers can also focus on vetting their supply chains to comply with foreign entity restrictions.

Moving forward, less community solar projects will be financially viable to develop. However, community solar is not at a loss, and strategic developers can remain viable if they make calculated moves.

6.      China on track to deploy 380 GW of PV in 2025

China’s total installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.99 TW by the end of 2025, up 19.2% from a year earlier, with wind and solar accounting for nearly half of the total, the State Grid Energy Research Institute (SGERI) said in its newly released China Power Supply and Demand Analysis Report (2025).

The report said that wind and solar will contribute 500 GW of new capacity in 2025, including 140 GW from wind, a 77.1% year-on-year increase, and 380 GW from solar, up 35.5%. This marks the first time renewable additions will surpass 500 GW per year in China.

By the end of May 2025, China had added 197.85 GW of solar capacity and 46.28 GW of wind for the year, representing year-on-year growth of 150% and 134%, respectively. Cumulative solar and wind capacity reached 1.684 TW, comprising 45.8% of the country’s total generation capacity.

China’s cumulative installed solar capacity has surpassed 1 TW, according to the National Energy Administration. As of May 2025, solar capacity stood at 1.08 TW, or 1,080 GW, up 56.9% from a year earlier.

The country’s power consumption is also increasing. Total electricity demand in 2025 is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh, about 5% higher than in 2024, supported by ongoing economic growth. GDP is expected to expand by 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025, with 5% as the baseline scenario.

In 2024, electricity demand reached 9.85 trillion kWh, up 6.8% year on year. Industrial use remained dominant, accounting for nearly half of total consumption. Power use in high-tech manufacturing rose 10.3%, outpacing growth in the broader manufacturing sector. In contrast, traditional high-energy sectors such as steel and cement posted declines, weighed down by weakness in real estate and ongoing production restructuring.

SGERI also noted a shift in China’s energy mix. At the end of 2024, total generation capacity was 3.35 TW, with wind and solar making up 42% and non-fossil sources accounting for 58.2%. Coal remained dominant in actual power generation, producing 18 percentage points more electricity than its share of capacity would suggest.

To strengthen grid flexibility and improve interregional power balancing, several ultra-high-voltage transmission projects – including Qingdong, Zhongheng, and Kunyu – are set to come online in 2025.

While overall supply-demand conditions are expected to improve in 2025, SGERI warned that supply could tighten during peak summer periods in some areas. No large-scale power rationing is expected, and the winter outlook is largely balanced.

The report also cited emerging loads such as data centers, 5G base stations, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Data center consumption is expected to exceed 160 billion kWh in 2025, while 5G-related demand may contribute more than 30 billion kWh.

With record capacity additions and accelerating decarbonization, 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for China’s power sector transformation, coinciding with the final year of the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

7.      India installs 22.5 GW of solar capacity in fiscal 2025

India added around 17.4 GW of utility-scale solar and 5.15 GW of rooftop solar capacity in fiscal 2025, according to JMK Research & Analytics’ “Annual India Solar Report Card FY 2025.”

Rajasthan led annual additions with 6.5 GW, followed by Gujarat (3.6 GW) and Maharashtra (2.3 GW).

JMK Research said it expects the nation to commission about 21.2 GW of new utility-scale solar projects and 7.2 GW of rooftop/onsite solar projects for fiscal 2026.

India’s cumulative utility-scale solar capacity stood at 85.6 GW at the end of March 2025, with another 68.2 GW in the pipeline (projects with completed auctions).

Waaree Energies led module shipments in fiscal 2025 with a 13.9% market share, followed by Jinko at 8.6%, Longi at 8.3%, and Trina at 6.2%. First Solar exported 66.7% of its India-made modules, while Adani exported 33% and Waaree 6.9%.

Sungrow led central inverter suppliers with a 54.1% share, followed by Sineng at 21.7% and FIMER at 19%. In string inverters, TBEA held 23.4%, followed by Sungrow at 18.9% and Solis at 13.4%.

Adani commissioned 19.7% of the 10.1 GW (AC) capacity from power purchase agreement (PPA) projects awarded by distribution companies (discoms), followed by ReNew at 15.4% and Acme at 11.9%

Discom PPA projects are utility-scale projects awarded by central and state agency tenders, with power offtake by state Discoms. Market share is based on AC capacity commissioned in fiscal 2025.

Serentica Renewables accounted for 6% of the 6,366 MW of open-access solar capacity, followed by JSW Energy and Greenko.

Tata Power, Jakson Green, and Sterling & Wilson were the top third-party engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors for utility-scale solar in fiscal 2025.

Tata Power Solar, Mahindra Solarize, and Orb Energy led rooftop and onsite solar project development in FY2025.

8.      Japan’s 24th solar auction concludes with average final price of $0.028/kWh

Japan's Green Investment Promotion Organization has released the final results of its latest auction for utility-scale solar energy projects.

The state-run agency said that 79 MW of PV projects were selected in the procurement exercise. It was Japan's 24th auction for utility-scale solar and was expected to assign 157.8 MW of generating capacity.

The 59 selected projects range in size from 300 kW to 19.5 MW.

The lowest bid was JPY 0.00/kWh and was submitted for around 40 projects with a capacity between 300 kW and 2 MW. These projects have likely already secured a private power purchase agreement for the sale of electricity and participated in the auction to secure grid connection.

The highest bid of JPY 7.79 ($0.054) /kWh was submitted for a 2.6 MW project. The average final price came in at JPY 4.06 ($0.028)/kWh.

In the last nine auctions, the final average price ranged from JPY 4.47/kWh to JPY 9.73/kWh.

In the 23rd auction, the Green Investement Promotion Organization assigned 93 MW of PV capacity at an average final price of JPY 5.06/kWh.

In the 22nd auction round, held in November, the Green Investment Promotion Organization assigned 56.4 MW of PV capacity. The lowest bid came in at JPY 7.5/kWh, while the average final price was JPY 8.17/kWh.

In the 21st auction, held in September, the Japanese authorities allocated 33.6 MW of PV projects at an average final price of JPY 8.08/kWh. The lowest bid came in at JPY 5.0/kWh

In the 20th round, the Japanese authorities allocated 93 MW of PV with final prices ranging from JPY 4.5 to JPY 8.8/kWh, with the average final price reaching JPY 6.8/kWh.

In the previous six rounds, held between March 2024 and March 2022, the lowest prices ranged between JPY 7.94/kWh and JPY 8.85/kWh.

In 2021, the Japanese government allocated 675 MW of PV capacity across three different auctions. In previous auctions, it allocated 942 MW.

9.      Massive solar project progresses ahead of schedule in Philippines

The MTerra Solar project in the Philippines is being built ahead of schedule, with 54% of first-phase works completed within the first eight months of construction.

A statement released by Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen) says 778 MW of solar was installed by the end of June, ahead of the targeted 750 MW, making it already the largest solar installation in the country. Construction work has mobilized more than 9,500 workers at its peak, with over more than.5 million man-hours recorded.

Once completed, the 3.5 GW solar and 4.5 GWh battery energy storage project will be the world’s largest integrated PV and storage facility. It is being built in the provinces of Nueva Ecija and Bulacan on the Philippine island of Luzon and will be capable of providing clean energy to around 2.4 million Filipino households.

The first phase of the project, which also includes a 500 kV transmission line for connection to the existing Nagsaag-San Jose transmission line, is scheduled for completion in 2026. It will be followed by a second phase the following year.

Huawei is supplying the battery energy storage system, while engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the high-voltage interconnection line have been awarded to Maxipro Development Corp. and Fujian Electric Power and Engineering Co. Ltd.

MGen said in its latest statement that it is on track to meet its target of 1.5 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 three years ahead of schedule, following completion of the second phase of the Terra Solar project.

10.  Four-year outdoor testing shows perovskite solar cells suffer from high seasonality

A group of researchers at Germany's Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin (HZB) has conducted a 4-year outdoor testing of standard perovskite solar cells at one of its facilities in Germany and has found that perovskite-based PV devices may suffer from a higher seasonality compared to conventional solar cells.

The scientists said the testing was the longest ever performed on an outdoor dataset for perovskite PV, for which the lack of a long track record remains among the biggest obstacles towards its commercial maturity, as device long-term stability rather than efficiency still represents the big unknown at both research and industrial levels.

Their measurements were carried out at an outdoor test field in Berlin with standard glass-glass laminated perovskite solar cells based on a substrate made of indium tia oxide (ITO), a 2PACz layer, a perovskite absorber with an energy bandgap of 1.65 eV, an electron transport layer (ETL) made of buckminsterfullerene (C60), a tin oxide (SnOx) buffer layer, and a copper (Cu) metal contact.

“The devices shown are the most stable ones we have monitored outdoors; therefore, this dataset is well-suited for the discussion of seasonal effects,” they explained, noting that the testing facility is exposed to high irradiance and high temperatures in summer, as well as to low irradiance light and low temperatures in winter.

At the end of the analyzed 4-year period, the academics found that the perovskite cells offer good “summer-to-summer” stability, with the devices having minimal performance losses in the first two summers and less than 15% losses in the following summers. By contrast, the devices were found to be 30% less efficient in the winter compared to the summer.

The researchers identified four factors leading to this difference in performance: Changes in the spectral conditions; the effect of the temperature coefficient; hysteresis in the current density–voltage (J–V) characteristics and the related MPP tracking losses; and the so-called perovskite “metastability,” which consists of all those processes that cause perovskite degradation.

As for the first factor – the seasonal changes in the solar spectrum – the group found that they can lead to a 10% difference in generated current between the summer and the winter at the same irradiance levels. “Compared to Berlin, locations closer to the equator experience less pronounced seasonal spectral variation due to the impact of latitude on seasonal air mass variation,” they specified. “Therefore, the relatively high changes in generated current due to spectral shifts observed at our location would be reduced in more equatorial locations.”

Regarding the temperature changes, which are mostly dependent on a project's location, the researchers observed that their influence was largely related to the state and age of the cells.

The analysis of metastability identified light-soaking as the most recurring issue.

“Light-soaking losses in locations with high insolation and ambient temperatures throughout the year can be more than twice as low compared to locations with less favorable conditions,” the researchers noted. “In the perovskite solar cells studied, these losses are linked to the magnitude of J-V hysteresis, which increases significantly in aged devices and at low operating temperatures. As a result, the energy yield of the observed devices is reduced during the third and fourth winters.”

The group concluded by saying that more accurate data are needed to understand the real extent of the observed seasonality factor, although they also stated that the testing offers promising results showing the “potential of this technology to reach the operational lifetime requirements of current commercialized PV technologies.

Their findings are available in the study “Seasonality in Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights from 4 Years of Outdoor Data,” published in Advanced Energy Materials.

11.  PVRadar launches Python programming tool to ease site-specific loss modeling

German software company PVRadar Labs has released a Python programming toolbox for industry practitioners that are building site-specific models. The package provides a shortcut to to customize yield models with the users' choice of a wide range of temperature, rainfall, soiling, and snowfall datasets.

The company says it enables a shift away from relying on general assumptions to more accurate simulations.

“The PVRadar Python Package was built to close the gap between academic research and practical application, making accurate modeling accessible to everyone,” Franco Clandestino, head of product at PVRadar, told pv magazine.

Many performance engineers responsible for PV system models have been using general assumptions to predict PV system losses due to factors such as temperature, rainfall, soiling, snowfall, and tracker malfunctions, according to Clandestino.

“Although black-box tools can achieve good accuracy in some cases, they do not necessarily provide control or visibility over what happens behind the scenes, such as which models are used, with which parameters, and under which assumptions,” explained Clandestino.

He added as an example that applying a fixed 2% soiling loss assumption can be “completely wrong” in arid regions. Likewise, the effects of snow, cell temperature, and irradiance can vary depending on the model chosen.

Ideally, location-specific models should be applied with parameters calibrated based on measured site data. “Full transparency is essential to build trust and get reliable results that support sound economic planning,” said Clandestino.

The new product includes pre-built functions, reducing the need to format imported PV-related data. “With a single line of code, you can access multiple synchronized databases, use a wide range of models from latest research, for example from pvlib. and validate your own models,” said Clandestino, referring to the pvlib open-source software.

“Anyone who has worked with data knows how time-consuming it can be to deal with time-zone mismatches, unit conversions, timestamp alignment, inconsistent formats, or gap-filling. These challenges can be a nightmare, introducing silent errors that may lead to poor decisions,” he added.

Worldwide satellite and ground-based environmental sources are available. Internal datasets are supported, as are external historical weather, irradiance, and satellite datasets, including snowfall, snow depth, snow density, and other meteorological data, such as the ERA5 and MERRA-2 datasets.

Founded in 2022, PVRadar develops software for large-scale solar PV analysis, including tools to understand climate and weather risks, to make soiling estimates and to optimize cleaning strategies.