What is the 2-degree temperature limit? Where are we now?

We often hear about the critical 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds in discussions about climate change. But what do these numbers truly mean, and why are they so significant in climate negotiations? This article delves into the importance of these temperature limits, the scientific basis behind them, and the progress and challenges associated with achieving the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Understanding these thresholds is essential to grasp the urgency of global efforts to combat climate change and protect our planet.

WHAT IS THE 2-DEGREE TEMPERATURE LIMIT?

This target was taken under the famous ‘Paris Agreement’, a legally binding international treaty under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This treaty was signed by 195 parties in the 2015 Conferences of Parties 21st edition (COP21).

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial level, preferably limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C. The mechanism to implement the Paris Agreement is based on taking National pledges called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and reviewing them regularly.

WHAT IS THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF THE 2°C THRESHOLD?

The impact of rising temperatures is evident through more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, extreme rainfall, and cyclonic activities in various locations worldwide. If global warming reaches 2°C, over 70 percent of the Earth's coastlines will experience a sea-level rise of more than 0.2 meters, leading to increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, salinization of water supplies, and other effects on human and ecological systems. Thus, after a series of negotiations and research by the scientific communities, finally, in 2015 under the Paris Agreement, the parties agreed to limit the global temperature by 2°C, preferably limiting it to 1.5°C. The relevance of these temperature thresholds can be found in IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming (2018).

India could be impacted severely by temperature rise beyond 2°C. A 2°C rise could make Indian summer monsoons highly unpredictable, and warming beyond 2°C could make extremely wet monsoons frequent.

Despite the known grave impacts, the current pace of climate action is not in line to achieve any of these targets.

SO WHERE ARE WE NOW?

In 2023 and 2024, global warming exceeded the 1.5°C threshold for almost 12 months for the first time. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that we have crossed the limit of the Paris Agreement. This is because human-induced warming was amplified by natural factors such as the El Niño effect this year (to be discussed in the upcoming issue). It is important to note that confirming global warming reaching a certain level requires longer-term observations over around 20-30 years. However, we did reach approximately 1°C human-induced warming in the year 2017. This means 1.5°C global warming could become a new normal very soon if we do not act quickly.

PROGRESS SO FAR

The Paris Agreement is based on a 5-year cycle of updates and increasingly ambitious targets for each party. The progress gets measured through Global Stocktake to see the collective progress so far. You can read the 2023 NDC Synthesis Report here.

To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030. The good news is that China's CO2 emission may have peaked in 2023. However, India could take years between 2028 and 2045 to reach its peak CO2 emissions as per various analyses and African countries are yet to peak their emissions and are unlikely to peak by 2030 which is the most challenging aspect of achieving the target of 1.5°C.

There are some positive trends:

1. On a global scale, there has been a growing emphasis on low-carbon technologies and markets. This focus has pushed countries to invest in renewable energies, and more cities are now in the process of developing Climate Action Plans (CAPs), while companies are signing Science Based Targets (SBTi) as part of their transition strategies. Additionally, investment firms/banks are increasingly recognizing the urgency of climate-sensitive investments, and turning towards responsible banking.

2. As per Global Electricity Review 2024 renewables hit 30% of total electricity globally, and China led the way by contributing more than half of the world’s new wind and solar generation in 2023. India overtook Japan to become the third-largest solar power generator in 2023, providing 5.9% of global growth in solar.

3. India committed to reducing GDP emissions intensity by 33-35% by 2030 from 2005 levels and achieving 40% non-fossil fuel-based electric power by 2030. By October 31, 2023, India surpassed these targets and reduced emissions intensity by 33% from 2005 to 2019. In August 2022, India updated its NDC to aim for a 45% reduction in emissions intensity and 50% non-fossil fuel-based electric power by 2030.

Challenges in the Adoption of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is based on a monitoring mechanism. It does not have any enforcement system, which means that if a country fails to meet its obligations, other countries can only resort to soft measures to ensure compliance from the parties. Additionally, the Paris Agreement does not have a final deadline and the execution of targets could get delayed with time-consuming legislative processes of the countries and other geopolitical challenges.

Therefore, we need to ensure that there is global cooperation, and more climate financing so that we can collectively limit global warming to at least a 2°C threshold.