What 85 Years of Research Says About Your Interviews

What 85 Years of Research Says About Your Interviews

Most interviews don’t work.

Why?

Because the most common interview format is also the least effective.

You know the one: A casual chat. No plan. No scoring. Just a few CV questions and a vibe check.

It feels natural. It feels insightful. It feels like a good read on the candidate.

But it isn’t.

What the research actually says

In 1998, researchers Frank Schmidt and John Hunter analysed 85 years of hiring data.

Their conclusion? Unstructured interviews only show you about 20% of what predicts on-the-job performance.

That means 80% of what makes someone successful never shows up in the process.

Now compare that to other methods:

  • Structured interviews: ~35% predictability
  • Work samples: ~40%
  • Collaborative tasks: higher still

But here’s the real unlock: Stack your signals.

When you combine structured interviews with role-relevant tasks and work samples, you see far more of the person behind the CV.

No method alone is perfect. But layered together, they give you clarity you can trust.

Google’s People Analytics team found the same. Unstructured interviews led to inconsistent and biased decisions. Structured interviews improved both performance and fairness. (You can find it all on Google’s Re:Work platform.)

Why this still happens

Unstructured interviews are easy. They don’t require prep. They give the illusion of insight. And they make us feel smart.

But here’s what they actually cost you:

  • Decisions based on gut, not evidence
  • Missed top performers
  • Inconsistent and unfair experiences
  • Higher drop-off and offer rejection
  • Slower onboarding and delayed results

And you can’t scale it. Or teach it. Or trust it.

What great leaders do instead

They combine methods to build real signal:

  • Use structured interviews: role-specific questions scored with a rubric
  • Add a work sample: a realistic task that mirrors the role
  • Stack the signals: no single method is enough but together they’re powerful
  • Train your managers ho to hire: most have never been taught to interview well

The best leaders don’t rely on gut feel. They build systems that show them what matters.

Final Thought

If you want more clarity when defining roles or assessing candidates, check out the Hiring Clarity Path.

It’s designed to help leaders like you reduce hiring risk, save time and money, and make better decisions with confidence.

And if you want more insights like this on hiring and interviewing, sign up for my email newsletter and get The First 15 Minutes - FREE. It's the ultimate guide on how to run short High-Impact interviews that uncover real talent and potential - FAST

Oliver Aust

Follow to become a top 1% communicator I Founder of Speak Like a CEO Academy I Bestselling 4 x Author I Host of Speak Like a CEO podcast I I help the world’s most ambitious leaders scale through unignorable communication

1mo

20% is a crazy low number - yet somehow not surprising. If a speech or talk is unstructured (or just a list of points), the number is equally low Konstanty Sliwowski

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Gwen Gayhart

Over 50 and overlooked? I help you turn ‘overqualified’ into hired | Your Next Job is Just 90 Days Away | Founder of Offer Mode | Performance-Based Hiring Certified | Fortune 500 Talent Leader

1mo

The fact that someone ever gets hired and can actually do what needs to be accomplished is more a testament to the inherent and limitless potential of humans to learn and adapt than to a hiring system that works.

Ali Mamujee

Strategy & GTM Advisor | Follow me for strategy, growth, and leadership tips.

1mo

Konstanty, this explains so much. Bad hires aren't a skill gap; they're often a process gap in how we find people.

Anna Chernyshova

Job Search Coach & 2x Founder | Ranked Top #1 HR and #3 FEMALE LinkedIn Creator Worldwide with 100M views | Follow for tips to land your dream job

1mo

This is interesting to know. It definitely makes a strong case for using structured interviews.

Tim Shea

President at JTS Market Intelligence

1mo

Thanks for sharing, Konstanty 👍

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