In 2022, ChatGPT, leveraging Large Language Models, swept us all up in a whole new vision of what generative AI could be. It has enormous potential to create ROI from amplifying high-value human-in-the-loop processes like wealth management, patient diagnosis, campaign development, and the like.
By contrast, agentic AI, which is just now coming to the fore, has the goal of taking humans completely out of the loop. To date, people have been focusing on how this will reduce labor costs, which is both a real and socially consequential outcome. That said, it will be nowhere near as consequential as the step-function improvements in response times and error rates that agentic AI will enable. Whenever you take a material amount of time and scrap out of any process, it changes the dynamics of the entire system and releases trapped value you did not even know was there. Unlike generative AI, in other words, which can be expected to create billions of dollars of ROI, agentic AI has the potential to create trillions—once it has been deployed successfully!
And that brings us to the present day. Agentic AI has yet to even cross the chasm, much less get inside the tornado. So, when is that going to happen, and what is that going to take? Here’s my read:
- To get the ball rolling this year, agentic AI vendors need to target the most impactful value-trapping bottlenecks in the industries where they are causing the most pain. These would include claims and billing dispute processing, credit authorizations, pricing approvals, medical authorizations, regulatory compliance reviews, and the like. What they all have in common is that they suck up an enormous amount of human resources and time to deliver what are atomically low-value transactions. Moreover, each holds an end-to-end value delivery process hostage while it works its way through its time-consuming steps. At the end of the day, however, all these transactions are grounded in processing a linear series of algorithms, such that AI can execute them in seconds, whereas humans take minutes, hours, days, weeks, or even months. Breaking these time bottlenecks is how the trapped value gets released.
- To deploy at scale in the near term, this first wave of solutions must come with guardrails already built in. That means they must be deployed atop enterprise applications already proven to be reliable—notably the ERP and CRM systems that are the backbone of today’s global commerce. The only change will be that instead of humans invoking them, agentic AI algorithms will. This stands in stark contrast to DIY efforts underway in many enterprises today, where data scientists working with the state-of-the-art software seek to build next-generation transaction flows. The demos work great, but because they are not leveraging decades of real-world testing, they inevitably hit serious deployment roadblocks when they go to scale.
- On the customer side, the disruptive nature of agentic AI applications warrants them being hosted in the Incubation Zone, not in the Productivity Zone. That is, they call for a focus on agile development, restricted initial deployment, and iterative adjustments, all in preparation for a transition to the Performance Zone. Because these applications are not treading any new ground, but rather accelerating transactions that are already well tested, they do not require a Transformation Zone approach to taking them to scale. Instead, a thoughtful, well-monitored ramping up should do the trick.
- Finally, let me give a call out to both vendors and customers to stop talking and start doing. The processes we are talking about are known bottlenecks in core processes that gate the productivity of entire industries. Everyone agrees that the customers of these industries are not being as well served as they could be. It behooves us all to get off our duffs and, as the Nike folks like to say, Just do it!
That’s what I think. What do you think?
Excellent insights on agentic AI's journey Geoffrey Moore Your closing call to action resonates deeply - we need to stop talking and start doing. The "primordial goo" phase of any transformative technology is exactly this - a messy crucible of mundane trials, inevitable errors, and most importantly, persistent action , let’s throw in some vibe coding. Just as biological evolution required countless iterations in that early soup, agentic AI needs brave vendors and customers willing to wade through the initial chaos. Your point about targeting pain-inducing bottlenecks (claims processing, credit authorizations, regulatory reviews) is spot-on. These aren't glamorous use cases, but they're where the trillion-dollar value is waiting to be unlocked . The companies that embrace the messiness now - building on proven ERP/CRM guardrails while iterating in incubation safe zones - will be the ones who help this technology cross the chasm.(great picture btw) Time to get off our “duffs”indeed. The primordial phase rewards action over analysis paralysis. Let's just do it!
A strategic leader who focuses on data and unleashes the commercial potential of AI
2moI firmly believe that AI is not only a technological leap, but also a new chapter in human civilization. It stimulates innovation, improves productivity, and allows us to focus on more creative and meaningful work. Embracing AI means embracing the infinite possibilities of the future.
Advisor | Investor | Senior Executive - Technology & Transformation
2moGeoffrey Moore no Fortune 500 enterprise will touch any agentic AI applications hosted in the incubation zone to interface with their mission critical systems like ERP, CRM or SCM, let alone let these applications take a bite off their core processes before cordoning them off through hands off REST APIs etc. So while your exhortation to vendors and customers to get off their duffs, stop talking and start doing is well taken, agentic AI applications IMHO will stay out of mission critical systems just like any new technology in the past did, until well tested, vetted and incorporated into non mission critical enterprise systems first and then into the others. Far too many large enterprises still have to cross the chasm of AI adoption, agentic or otherwise!!
AI Automation Specialist | Streamlining Workflows & Boosting Efficiency with Intelligent Solutions
2moWow, Geoffrey! The shift from generative AI to agentic AI is truly revolutionary. Compressing response times from days to seconds will transform economic landscapes and create immense value. This is an exciting time for AI-driven innovations and digital transformation 🚀
Father | Executive | Veteran | Technology
2moGeoffrey Moore Agree with your points here, one of the critical guardrails required is authentication and security of the Agents. We've put together of point of view regarding Agent Identities. https://mtls.id It is what we think, what do you think?