When the Numbers Don’t Match the Plan, You’ve Got a Problem

I’ve supported hundreds of founders over the years, helping them shape business plans, pitch decks and one pagers for funding, and build models that don’t fall apart under scrutiny. But, time and again, I’ve seen the same issue: the numbers don’t match the narrative. It’s usually not intentional. Founders focus on the vision, the product, the big picture. Then someone asks for the financials, so they fire up a spreadsheet and stick in some hopeful numbers.

Here’s the thing though, your financial projections aren’t a bolt-on. They are the business plan. They are a numerical explanation of the plan. And if those numbers don’t line up with what you’re saying elsewhere, it’s going to raise questions. Especially with investors. They’re not just scanning for optimism, they’re looking for inconsistencies. They want to see if you understand how your business really works. If you’ve thought about timing, pricing strategy, cost, and risk. If your growth curve is unbelievable, then you better have some unbelievable answers.

We all love a good hockey stick. But ask yourself, do you live in a world where customers sign contracts overnight? Or are there buying cycles, gatekeepers, and long sales funnels? Because if your model shows revenue tripling six months after launch, but your plan involves targeting enterprise clients… well, you’ve lost the room before you’ve started.

Your Startup Isn’t Your Personal Bank Account

This is one of the first mindset shifts founders need to make. Running a business isn’t like managing your own finances. It’s not about keeping your costs down and hoping for the best. It’s about making decisions in the best interest of the business. Sometimes that means hiring ahead of revenue. Sometimes it means spending on legal, certifications, or market access before the money starts coming in. I often explain it like this: think of your business as a bucket. You don’t want it to run dry.

So, what’s going in?

• Sales (when they come in, not when you make the deal)

• Grants (Can you really give an investor 100% assurance you will get one)

• Side revenue (like consulting work if you’re early stage)

And what’s coming out?

• Salaries, Pensions

• Rent, Utilities

• Marketing, Social Media

• Software, legal, advisors, travel, operations, unexpected costs

If you haven’t done it before, break it down month by month. Be honest about payment terms, customer behaviour, and delays. Don’t smooth the line just because it looks tidy. And yes, seasonality matters. If you’re selling in Europe, don’t expect to close any B2B deals in August. Everyone’s on holiday or winding down. You might sell ice cream or hotel rooms, but you’re not closing SaaS deals.

Investors Look for Holes (So do I)

When someone reviews your financial model, they’re not just looking at how big it gets, they’re trying to spot what you’ve missed. What’s driving the growth? Why do costs stay flat while revenue goes up? Why does nothing go wrong? If it looks too perfect, it probably is. It doesn’t mean your plan is bad, it just means you haven’t really modelled the journey yet. You don’t need to be a finance expert to do this well. But you do need to ask yourself some hard questions:

• What does it really cost to run this?

• When do customers pay us?

• How much margin do we actually keep?

• What happens if we’re paid late or need to hire sooner?

And if you don’t know something, find out. Ask someone. Look it up. That kind of diligence gives confidence. It shows you're serious.

Your Numbers Are a Reflection of Your Thinking

This isn’t about impressing people with spreadsheets. It’s about understanding how your own business works. Tools like Chat GPT, Co-Pilot etc. can help you crunch numbers, but they can’t replace the thinking you need to do as a founder. If you’re already trading, even in a small way, use your past data. Build a simple 12-month budget. Track actuals vs projected. Learn where you got it right and where you didn’t. And if you’re pre-revenue, make it clear where you’ve made assumptions. Acknowledge the unknowns, but also demonstrate you have done your research. Show that you’re building a system that can adapt as you learn more. Also use graphs or visualisations that are easy to read and understand at first glance.

Final Thought

If the strategy says one thing and the numbers say another, investors will walk. But more than that, you’ll be building a company on sand. So get into the weeds. Understand your numbers, don’t outsource the thinking. Because the financial model isn’t the end of your plan, it’s the proof that you’ve thought it through. If you are still struggling to create a decent financial plan, don't be afraid to ask for help..

And in the startup world, that could be the difference between being taken seriously nor not.