When to promise a project date?

In a project most stakeholders just want to know when is go live.  The power of this date is palpable, driving activity and expectations.  It’s interesting to see when a project team is willing to pin a flag to their mast on the year, quarter, month and day of delivery.

How often have you heard it said that we’re going live on the 1st of… it’s the equivalent of I’ll have that ready by the end of the week. Pushing something out far enough to make progress rather than believing in the date.

I am still a big fan of the cone of uncertainty, people who know me will smile or groan when I mention it. It’s a neatly packaged way of explaining that there aren’t project crystal balls and its better to be transparent about the calculations and uncertainties to our estimates.

The simple thought goes as follows: at the outset of our projects we are 4x out on our estimates. Only after a deep understanding of what is required, an agreement on design and a run rate of delivery can we predict a go live date with any certainty. Even then we could still be days or weeks out depending on the size of the project.

The next time you feel the pressure to blurt out a go live date I would really encourage you not to.  Instead try to use the cone of uncertainty to explain your estimate, its uncertainty and perhaps offer a date range. We all get drop dead dates assigned, but even in these cases it’s better to underpin stakeholder expectations with this tool rather than making a series of less convincing promises.

A project managers credibility is often wrapped up in the ability to deliver to a date.  Don't pin yourself to or be pined down by a date unless you have confidence based on realistic expectations and data you can rely on. 

I would be really interested to hear your thoughts and experiences on this topic.