Who will be Africa's next "Optimist-in-Chief"? The contest to succeed Akin Adesina at the African Development Bank

On 29th May 2025, member countries of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Africa's premier development finance institution, will elect a successor to its outgoing president, Nigeria's Dr. Akin Adesina, at the Bank's Annual Meetings taking place at the AfDB's Headquarters in Cote d'Ivoire's commercial capital, Abidjan. The AfDB has eighty-one member countries, fifty-four of which are African countries and twenty-seven of which are non-African countries. The African member countries are collectively referred to as regional member countries while the non-African countries are referred to as non-regional member countries. Regional member countries have 60% of the votes while non-regionals have 40%. In close elections as in 2005, non-regional member countries may determine the outcome of the elections, especially if an important non-regional member country has a preferred candidate as was the case in 2005.

Whoever succeeds Adesina will step into very big shoes at a time when some of the continent’s development challenges appear increasingly stubborn to tackle and when international partnership for development is threatened. Africa’s new “optimist-in-chief” must not only be the optimist-in-chief but must be seen to be so. The job of the continent’s “Optimist-in-Chief” requires technical skills for sure, but it also demands tremendous political skills, courage, and self-confidence as well. Technical/technocratic skills will not be enough.

The final Five candidates vying for the top job are Mauritania’s Dr. Sidi Ould Tah (North Africa);  South Africa’s Ms. Tshabalala (Southern Africa), who also is the only woman; Zambia’s Dr. Samuel Maimbo (Southern Africa); Senegal’s Amadou Hott (West Africa) and Chad’s Abbas Tolli. Each of these candidates is, based on their resumes available on the AfDB website, observationally qualified to helm Africa’s premier development institutions. Who wins the election on the 29th of May 2025 will depend on regional politics and power inter-play and the influence of their home government with African governments and governments of non-regional member countries. It is worth noting that East Africa has no candidate in these elections and it is unclear whom among the candidates the region is backing.

Below, is a brief analysis of the chances of each of the candidates based on publicly available information, especially, the voting power of AfDB member countries focusing on the top twenty countries.

·       Dr Sidi Ould Tah (Mauritania): Former Finance Minister; currently President of the Arab League’s Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) now temporarily located in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. His country has 0.055% of the AfDB’s voting rights.

Odds of winning: Probably the most competitive of the candidates given that he is currently holding a position similar in function to the functions of the president of the AfDB, Dr. Tah could be fettered by weak regional support and the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria. Although Algeria, with 5.331% of the voting rights is likely to support him, he cannot count on Morocco’s support since his country, Mauritania, recognizes The Saharawi Arab Republic and the POLISARIO front as the legitimate representative of the Saharawi people. If Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, and Egypt support him, he will go into the elections with a solid 15.220% of the votes. That will be enough to get him beyond the first round. With support from the Gulf countries, he is likely to split the non-regional votes with Dr. Maimbo of Zambia. 

·       Ms. Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala (Republic of South Africa): Former Vice President of the AfDB. Resigned her position to contest for the presidency. She is backed by her country which controls 5.056% of the AfDB’s voting powers.

Odds of winning: The consensus on the continent is that the next president of the AfDB should emerge either from Central Africa or from Southern Africa. This consensus favours Ms. Swazi, the only woman in the race. Ms. Swazi’s candidacy is weakened by the fact that she is her country’s, not her region’s (SADC’s), candidate for the position. That honor belongs to Zambia’s Sam Maimbo. However, if she survives the first round of voting, she will likely emerge Adesina’s successor (as her region will line up behind her). South Africa supported Nigeria 10 years ago when Adesina ran for the presidency. It is therefore highly likely that Nigeria will reciprocate this time around. Algeria, a very close ally of South Africa, is unlikely to support the South African candidate as long as the Mauritanian candidate is in the race.  Another country (a non-regional) likely to support Ms Tshabalala is South Africa’s BRICS ally, China. Adding up Nigeria’s 9.333%, South Africa’s 5.056%, and China’s 1.278%, Ms Swazi will go into the election with slightly more than 14% of the voting rights, just behind Dr. Tah.

·       Dr. Samuel Maimbo, (Zambia): Vice President (on leave) for Budget, Performance Review, and Strategic Planning, the World Bank. His country has 1.174% of the AfDB’s voting rights. If he wins, he will become the second Zambian to head the Bank, the first being Wila Mungomba.

Odds of winning: Dr. Maimbo has campaigned very actively for the job on social media and elsewhere. He is supported by SADC (excluding South Africa) and COMESA (excluding South Africa). He probably will receive significant support from the non-regional countries, perhaps the USA (7.581%), Canada (4.395%); and the UK (2.083%). It is unclear whom the EU countries will support. If France supports the Senegalese candidate, then it is likely that the rest of the EU would. But it is unlikely that there will be a repeat of the  2005 scenario when all the non-regionals, led by the USA, backed one candidate. This time around, the USA does not appear to be interested in the AfDB.

Dr. Maimbo’s main weakness is his lack of direct Africa experience, given that he has spent all his professional life at the World Bank. In light of the “Ibrahim Traore fever” sweeping the continent, it is highly unlikely that many countries would like to see someone who has no direct Africa experience, no matter how qualified, “parachute” in to helm the continent’s premier development finance institution. There may be countries that will doubt his unalloyed commitment to the continent and would not like the AfDB to be seen as an extension of the World Bank.

·       Mr. Amadou Hott (Senegal): Former, Special Envoy for the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa (AGIA). He resigned his position to join the race. If he wins, he will be the first Senegalese since Mr. Babacar Ndiaye to helm the Bank. His country has 0.993% of the Bank’s voting rights.

Odds of winning: Mr. Hott’s odds of emerging as the next president of the AfDB are very slim.  He appears to be the least experienced of the lot. Although he can count on the support of ECOWAS countries, WAEMU, and the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES), and Senegal’s close ally, Morocco, he will need Nigeria’s support to soar above all the other candidates.  With Nigeria likely to support South Africa, Mr. Hott can be sure of Cote d’Ivoire’s 3.824% and Ghana’s 2.124% and Morocco’s 4.761% (10.709%) going into the elections. Given tensions between France and its former colonies in West Africa, it is unclear whether he will get France’s support.

·       Mr. Mahamat Tolli (Chad): Former Governor of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), former President of the Development Bank of Central Africa; former Minister. Backed by Central Africa’s 2 regional institutions, ECCAS and CEMAC. His country has 0.065% of AfDB voting rights. Mr. Tolli was among the first if not the first to announce interest in the job.

Odds of winning: Administratively very experienced. Arguing in his favour is the prevailing sentiment across the continent that the next AfDB president should emerge from either Central or Southern Africa. The backing of the six-member Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and the 11-member Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the two main regional bodies in Central Africa, to which Chad belongs makes Mr. Tolli a very strong candidate. However, his chances do not look especially bright given the very low voting power of his region (a mere 4.715%). He would need the support of other regions to scale through the first ballot. But for the deterioration in his country’s relationship with France, he would have counted on France to mobilize support for him. There could also be “Chad fatigue” on the continent. His compatriot, Mr. Faki, just completed his term as the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), which makes it unlikely that a broad swathe of countries has a desire to have another Chadian at the helm of another continental organization. Besides, his career history does not suggest a leader who is dynamic, innovative, and capable of taking the AfDB to the next level.

Conclusion: The top three candidates in the race to succeed Adesina are Hott, Tah, and Tshabalala. Mr. Hott is likely to drop out in the penultimate round of voting making it a two-horse race between Dr. Tah and Ms. Tshabalala, (ECOWAS+Mauritania +AES vs. SADC+COMESA) with the odds greatly in the latter’s favour. While the odds may appear to favour Ms. Tshabalala to emerge as Adesina’s successor after the votes are cast on 29th May 2025, (the first female and the third southern African after Gondwe and Mungomba to helm the institution ), it may be helpful for her to have one important “variable” in view: except for Senegal’s Babacar Ndiaye no employee of the AfDB has ever risen to the highest position in the institution. The closest that the AfDB Board came to electing a former employee president of the institution was in 2005, when Nigeria’s Bisi Ogunjobi, a former vice president, contested during the Annual meetings in Abuja. Nigeria. Ogunjobi lost to Rwanda’s Donald Kaberuka. The AfDB board appears to prefer outsiders and former or serving ministers.