Why Henry Ford would have sniffed at AI (for now)

I have been saying for a number of years now that our estimates of AI are wrong. We are inevitably underestimating its impact and should continue to challenge our thinking. 

The example I give to illustrate this point is that in the early days of the automobile, the focus was on the car versus horse-powered travel (the current version: AI versus the jobs to be lost discussion). It was the wrong discussion. In fairness they could not foresee the changes in roads (and hence engineering and, from that, changing levels of education required, etc), how those new road networks would change society (such as taking holidays, growing the business reach, changes in accents, speech patterns and hence language), how it would bring on the next ripple of automotive change (such as trucks and, therefore, changing economic development particularly during WW2), how oil based engines would dominate (and how that crippled the development of the battery industry for nearly a century; and the oil industry enabled other changes), etc… You get the idea.

We are at the very beginning of AI. Perhaps just on the cusp of the Ford Model T era. At times, this is the point at which I get some pushback.

Our screens and discussions are awash with the marvellous considerations of what AI can do. Don’t get me wrong, it is a very good thing. However, we should add the occasional dose of reality. Like those before us, we need to keep challenging ourselves to think more clearly about future paths and what that may mean. However, we also need humility.

There is much noted about pattern recognition in AI. It can identify trends and other meaningful information from a sea of data. A classic example is the diagnosis of cancer. So what do you think would analyse this at 99% accuracy?

And the answer:

Yes, a flock of pigeons can be 99% accurate as to whether a cancer is malignant or benign.

And for those thinking next steps – How does a pigeon tell us this piece of information? Well, they were trained to tap on one side of the slide if malignant and the other if benign, and when they were right, they received a treat! DeepSeeks’ cheapness has nothing on these pigeons!

AI is a game changer. It will change all our lives, much of it for the good. Like the advent of cars, it will open up worlds that will be fun and exciting. Let’s just not get ahead of ourselves though. If the pigeons can do it, admittedly only part, I am of a mind that we are not really at ‘proper’ AI yet. But we are closer. Hence, perhaps we are getting closer to the Model T.

Now think about all those great changes that stemmed from that. Now let us do that work, that thinking. Do enjoy.