Why Sustainability Needs Foresight

Sustainability is inherently about the future. Yet, in practice, many sustainability strategies are still driven by short-term pressures, quarterly metrics, and incremental compliance. In a world marked by climate instability, technological disruption, geopolitical volatility, and social transformation, this is no longer enough. We need to become better at thinking ahead — not just for the next reporting cycle, but for the next decade and beyond.

That’s where foresight comes in.

Strategic foresight is the structured and systemic exploration of possible futures. It helps organizations anticipate change, explore uncertainty, and make more resilient, future-fit decisions today. It is not about predicting what will happen, but preparing for what could happen. In the context of sustainability, this shift in mindset is critical. The challenges we face are too complex, too uncertain, and too interconnected to be approached with linear thinking alone.

Short-term fixes, long-term failures

There is growing recognition that sustainability efforts too often fall short because they focus on isolated interventions or narrow timeframes. As the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) noted in its foresight primer, even the best technical solution can fail if it does not take into account how a system might evolve in the future (UNDP Foresight Manual, 2018 / UNDP RBAP Foresight Playbook, 2022).

This is particularly relevant in areas like climate adaptation, circular economy, and social equity, where today’s decisions lock in trajectories for decades. Building a wind farm or launching a recycling program may seem like progress, but are these solutions resilient to future shifts in regulation, consumer behavior, or raw material availability?

Foresight expands the sustainability toolbox

Foresight does not replace science-based targets or lifecycle assessments. Rather, it adds a critical dimension: future literacy. Tools like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and megatrend analysis allow sustainability professionals to go beyond today’s known risks and imagine alternative futures, including disruptions, breakthroughs, and tipping points.

Take the example of Unilever, which uses scenario planning to test the robustness of its sustainability strategy against different futures of globalization, regulation, and resource availability (Unilever Climate Transition Action Plan, 2021). Or Finland’s national foresight system, which regularly brings together government, civil society, and researchers to co-create long-term views on issues like wellbeing, resilience, and green industrial policy (Prime Minister's Office, Finland).

These are not just thought exercises. They shape real-world choices, from innovation portfolios to infrastructure investments to governance models.

Resilience, relevance, regeneration

When applied well, foresight can strengthen sustainability efforts in three important ways:

• Resilience: by identifying vulnerabilities and stress points before they become crises
• Relevance: by aligning strategies with emerging stakeholder expectations and system dynamics
• Regeneration: by enabling bold, transformative visions that go beyond doing less harm

As futurist Sohail Inayatullah put it, “It became clear to me that it’s not just about novelty and futures, with the grand patterns of futures, emerging issues or scenarios; it’s about the ability to make those real in a way that decisions makers can say, ‘Aha, that makes sense to me. That resonates with me,’” (APF, 2024).

For sustainability professionals, this means asking harder questions. Not just What is our carbon footprint today? but How will carbon pricing, climate migration, or materials scarcity reshape our business model over the next 10 to 20 years?

From hindsight to foresight

The sustainability movement has made great progress in defining where we stand. But the future is moving faster than many strategies can adapt. To remain relevant, and impactful, we need to upgrade our ability to think long-term, embrace uncertainty, and challenge our assumptions.

Foresight gives us the tools to do just that. Not as a crystal ball, but as a compass.

This article is part of the “Foresight in Sustainability” series, released weekly. You can find previous articles in the series on LinkedIn or at futureofsustainability.net.