wknd notes: Everything that happens happens as it should

An unexpected joy of having kids in the Academies is getting to know their friends, living their extraordinary lives. Of his class of 150 at BUDS, 30 survived Hell Week. He texted us a picture of the top of his raw head, the hair worn away. Someone’s got to carry the boats. “We were marching through sand, delirious, the guy in front of me wasn’t carrying his weight, he’d been lagging for weeks. We knew if we picked up the pace he’d collapse.” So, they did, and he dropped, self-selection amongst the elite. “But the weight of the boat became too much.” For the first time, dark thoughts crept in. “I thought my body was going to give out.” SEALS search for humans born with no off switch. “The instructor who had destroyed us for weeks watched it all, stepped under the boat to replace the guy who collapsed, to share our load.” Leadership. “Knew right then I was never ringing the bell.”

Overall: “Death smiles at us all, all a man can do is smile back,” wrote Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor, in a private journal, leading his mighty army at the empire’s northern border along the bank of the Danube, sometime between 170-180 AD. “It is not death that a man should fear, but he should fear never beginning to live,” wrote Aurelius, steeped in Stoic philosophy, which is built upon the four primary virtues: Wisdom, Moderation, Justice, Courage. Of the countless leaders in Rome’s long history, Aurelius is one of its most respected. “The longest-lived and the shortest-lived man, when they come to die, lose one and the same thing,” wrote Aurelius. Eighteen centuries later, nothing has changed but for the inexorable advance of our technological capabilities. Human nature is immutable of course. Naturally, Europe is at war with itself, as it was back then, an eternal dance, this chapter dedicated to redrawing lines along the Ukrainian border. And leaders in the continent’s many nation states are attempting to consolidate control, this time peacefully, democratically, a glacial process. Perhaps the EU will defy Europe’s long history, and its latest dream of a democratic union will someday be realized. It’s a worthy experiment and stands in stark contrast to the world’s other two powers. China is quite clearly traveling a path from autocracy toward true dictatorship. It is already a police state. And the US is testing its citizens’ interest in a system which substantially elevates the power of the chief executive. It’s too early to judge how it will go, and if voters will accept it. In times of great uncertainty, instability, corruption, history bends toward emperors. Which of these three political systems ultimately prevails in a world soon dominated by AI will determine the fate of humanity. “Everything that happens happens as it should, and if you observe carefully, you will find this to be so,” wrote Marcus Aurelius, late in life, last of Pax Romana’s great leaders.

Week-in-Review: Mon: China GDP 5.2% (5.1%e), retail sales 4.8% (5.2%e). Argentina CPI 1.60% monthly (1.90%e). BTC soars past $120k as US Congress starts “Crypto Week”. Cuomo will run as a third-party candidate against Mamdani for NYC mayor. Trump promises more weapons for Ukraine and additional tariffs on Russia unless Russia agrees to ceasefire within 50 days. S&P +0.1%. Tue: US CPI 2.7% (2.6%e), Core 2.9% as exp. Canada CPI 1.9% as exp. Trump says Bessent isn’t leading candidate, but “an option” for Fed chair. S&P -0.4%. Wed: UK CPI 3.6% (3.4%e), Core 3.7% (3.5%e). Canada housing starts 283.7k (262.5k e). Trump denies plan to axe Powell following a leak that he had floated the idea. Trump eyes tariff rate of 10% or 15% for more than 150 countries. S&P +0.3%. Thu: US init jobless claims 221k (233k e), ret sales 0.6% (0.1%e). Eurozone CPI 2.0% as exp. Waller says Fed should cut rates now with labor markets showing signs of weakness. Congress passes Stablecoin bill. S&P +0.5%. Fri: UMich sent 61.8 (61.5e), US housing starts 1321k (1300k e). Trump readies plans for industry specific tariffs to kick in alongside country duties on Aug 1, including on pharmaceuticals. Trump signs Stablecoin bill. S&P flat.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.6% and VIX +0.01 at +16.41. Nikkei +0.6%, Shanghai +0.7%, Euro Stoxx -0.1%, Bovespa -2.1%, MSCI World +0.5%, MSCI Emerging +1.6%, Bitcoin +0.3%, and Ethereum +20.4%. USD rose +1.1% vs Sweden, +1.1% vs Australia, +0.9% vs Yen, +0.8% vs Russia, +0.6% vs Chile, +0.6% vs Mexico, +0.6% vs Sterling, +0.5% vs Euro, +0.5% vs Turkey, +0.5% vs Indonesia, +0.4% vs India, +0.4% vs Brazil, +0.2% vs Canada, and +0.1% vs China. USD fell -1.3% vs South Africa. Gold -0.2%, Silver -1.3%, Oil -1.6%, Copper +0.0%, Iron Ore +6.1%, Corn +3.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.76%, US +3bps at 2.42%, JP -1bp at 1.58%, and UK +1bp at 3.08%). 2yr Notes -2bps at 3.87% and 10yr Notes +1bp at 4.42%.

2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Poland +53.5% priced in US dollars (+36.3% priced in zloty), Greece +51.8% priced in US dollars (+35.1% priced in euros), Hungary +47.3% in dollars (+27.7% in forint), Czech Republic +42.1% (+24.3%), Korea +40.6% (+32.9%), Israel +37.9% (+27.2%), Colombia +37.7% (+25.7%), Austria +37% (+22.5%), Germany +36.5% (+22%), Spain +35.6% (+20.6%), Portugal +35.6% (+20.6%), Italy +31.9% (+17.9%), Norway +29.5% (+15.7%), South Africa +28.8% (+20.7%), Ireland +28.3% (+14.2%), Mexico +26.6% (+13.7%), Finland +25.6% (+12.2%), Chile +25.6% (+22%), Euro Stoxx 50 +23% (+9.5%), Brazil +22.9% (+10.9%), HK +22.5% (+23.8%), Belgium +19.7% (+6.6%), France +19.1% (+6%), UK +17.9% (+10%), Singapore +17.7% (+10.6%), Sweden +17% (+2.6%), Switzerland +16.7% (+3.3%), Netherlands +16.6% (+3.8%), Canada +15.8% (+10.5%), Vietnam +15.1% (+18.2%), Taiwan +13.3% (+1.5%), Australia +13% (+7.3%), MSCI World +9.7% in US dollars, UAE +8.9% (+8.9%), NASDAQ +8.2%, China +7.3% (+5.5%), S&P 500 +7.1%, Japan +5.5% (-0.2%), India +4.9% (+5.6%), New Zealand +4.8% (-1.8%), Indonesia +2.5% (+3.3%), Russell +0.4%, Philippines -1.9% (-3.4%), Malaysia -2.1% (-7.1%), Turkey -7.6% (+5.4%), Saudi Arabia -8.4% (-8.6%), Denmark -9% (-18.6%), Thailand -9% (-13.8%), Argentina -34.3% (-18.1%).

Leadership: With the approach of artificial general intelligence, and beyond that, artificial superintelligence, it is harder to envision the future than at any time in history. It is all coming at a moment when the world’s great powers are undergoing major political change, and it may be that these two things are related. At any rate, as investors, we must be open to all sorts of new possibilities, opportunities, risks, fat tails, in both directions. As humans seek new leaders to shepherd us into this approaching world. And as we again consider what it means to be a leader.

Leadership II: “Until philosophers rule as kings or those who are now called kings and leading men genuinely and adequately philosophize… cities will have no rest from evils, nor will the human race, as I think, until then,” wrote Plato in The Republic, advocating for a system of government led by a benevolent philosopher king. “The truth is that the State in which the rulers are most reluctant to govern is always the best and most quietly governed, and the State in which they are most eager, the worst,” wrote Plato. “The philosopher is always in love with the truth.”

Leadership III: “If the people be led by laws, and uniformity sought to be given them by punishments, they will try to avoid the punishment but have no sense of shame. If they be led by virtue, and uniformity sought to be given them by the rules of propriety, they will have the sense of shame and moreover will become good,” wrote Confucius, laying the foundation for China. His ideal leader had nearly unchecked power, tempered by moral obligation. “He who rules by virtue is like the polestar, which remains in its place while all the lesser stars do homage to it.”

Leadership IV: “During the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war, as is of every man against every man,” wrote Thomas Hobbes, arguing for an all-powerful sovereign to prevent societal collapse into chaos. “The only way to erect such a Common Power… is to confer all their power and strength upon one Man, or upon one Assembly of men, that may reduce all their Wills, by plurality of voices, unto one Will,” continued Hobbes in Leviathan, written in 1651.

Leadership V: “I wish to be ruled by one lion rather than by two hundred rats of my own species,” wrote Voltaire in the late 1700s, or so it is said. “Enlightenment is not for the people… The people must be led, not misled,” he wrote. “Almost nothing great has ever been done in the world except by the genius and firmness of a single man combating the prejudices of the multitude,” wrote Voltaire, in a letter to Catherine the Great.

Leadership VI: “It has been observed that a pure democracy, if it were practicable, would be the most perfect government. Experience has proved that no position is more false than this,” wrote Alexander Hamilton. “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide,” wrote John Adams. “The preservation of the sacred fire of liberty… is finally staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people,” said George Washington, in his first inaugural address. “The basis of our political system is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government,” said Washington in his farewell address.

Anecdote: “First half of the ruck went fast,” said Teddy, final day of Air Assault School, known as the toughest ten days in the army. Roughly half the cadets fail. On the last day of Air Assault, you must march 12-miles in less than 3hrs, carrying 40lbs of gear. “Then out of nowhere, I cramped up. I was well ahead of time and kept going, punching my legs to loosen up.” A pace car with paramedics carries up the rear, picking up the broken pieces, hovering like vultures. “I must’ve gotten my hydration wrong, electrolytes, something. The cramps got progressively worse. At times my legs locked out and I’d swing them outward as I shuffled and ran.” Teddy was a Track & Field kid, a pole vaulter, lean. Four years ago on New Year’s Eve, our family went around the table to discuss resolutions. “I’m going to get huge,” he announced. We all laughed. Now he’s a beast. And of all the things that Teddy thought might take him down at Air Assault, physical demands were last on the list. “I could feel the pace car creeping up, stalking me,” he said, the pain excruciating. “The car passed me, paramedics sized me up, said I should climb in, no way I could make it.” He carried on. “I found I could go for bursts and briefly get back in front of the car. I refused to lose to it.” On they went, leapfrogging. “But I was gradually losing ground, it looked over. And right then, the most badass of all officers came up beside me - ‘We’re going to finish this together cadet’ – he yelled.” Leadership. “I told him I had to puke from the pain. He said, ‘Hell yeah!’ And I did. ‘Do this for your future soldiers!’ he said as we marched together. And we crossed the finish line, absolute dead last, with 1 minute left, the whole class cheering.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.