The World’s Shame in Gaza

Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery.

Read our latest statement here.

/// On Our Radar

Democratic Republic of Congo 

During a second meeting of the Joint Oversight Committee in Washington on Wednesday, Rwanda and the DR Congo reaffirmed their commitment to the June 27 peace agreement, while acknowledging that progress has been limited. Kigali and Kinshasa also agreed to establish military and intelligence channels for information exchange. Meanwhile, clashes continued, particularly around the town of Uvira in South Kivu, even as talks between the M23 and the DRC resumed in Doha under Qatari mediation. Both sides traded accusations of ceasefire violations and missed an August 18 deadline for a formal agreement.

Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the parties' continued engagement is encouraging, but real, time-bound progress is needed to prevent the effort from unravelling. Otherwise, there is a risk of a return to full-scale war, which would further worsen an already disastrous situation for populations trapped in a sprawling conflict.

Haiti  

The U.S. and Panama circulated a draft resolution at the UN Security Council that proposes to transform the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), deployed in Haiti to combat spiralling gang violence but hampered by understaffing and underfunding, into a new “Gang Suppression Force”. The new force would consist of 5,500 uniformed personnel and 50 civilian staff, backstopped by a new UN support office in Port-au-Prince for logistics. It would also carry a broader mandate than the MSS, notably the freedom to conduct counter-gang operations independent from the Haitian police.

Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says Washington’s heightened focus on Haiti is welcome, but other Council members will ask tough questions about the proposed mission’s leadership, funding, troop contributions, and coordination mechanisms.

Ukraine 

Leaders of the “coalition of the willing”, an ad-hoc group of 35 primarily European backers of Kyiv, met in Paris Thursday to work out security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. President Emmanuel Macron said 26 countries had committed support for a ‘reassurance force’ to deploy once a ceasefire is agreed and that the shape of U.S. involvement would be finalised in the coming days.

Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the pledges mark an important signal of continued Western support for Ukraine, though it is difficult to imagine Washington making a firm commitment given President Trump’s shifting stance toward Kyiv. The plan also remains contingent on a ceasefire, which Moscow shows little sign of accepting as it presses battlefield advances and strikes against Ukrainian cities.

Find previous editions of On Our Radar here.

/// Analyst’s Notebook

Crisis Group experts share first takes, reporting and analysis on global events as they happen:

Tense Times in Tripoli Claudia Gazzini explains the building tensions in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, and what that could mean for peace and security in the city.

With a Quiet Meeting in Alaska, Washington Tries to Reassure Taipei William Yang on reported defence talks between the Trump and Lai administrations last week in Alaska.

Sudan’s RSF Proclaims Parallel Government, Raising Threat of Partition Shewit Woldemichael on the paramilitary force’s creation of a rival administration based in western Sudan. 

A New Phase of Israeli-Houthi Escalation Ahmed Nagi on the latest exchanges of fire between Israel and the Houthis in Yemen. 

Find previous Analyst’s Notebook entries here.

/// CrisisWatch

September Alerts and August Trends

The latest edition of our monthly conflict tracker highlights conflict risks in Guinea, Iran, Israel/Palestine, Ukraine and Yemen in September. In August, it spotlighted deteriorations in eight countries and conflict areas and improvements in two locations.

/// Publications

Q&A

U.S. “Anti-drugs” Strike Stirs Fears of Venezuela Intervention

A U.S. attack in the Caribbean hit a vessel allegedly carrying drugs the Trump administration said were linked to a “narco-terrorist organisation” headed by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the motives behind the attack and its implications.

Available in Spanish

Briefing

Armenia and Azerbaijan: The Hard Road to a Lasting Peace

A conflict-ending accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan sits ready for signature. Peace would be a boon for both countries and their common vision of regional economic integration. With help from outside partners, Baku and Yerevan should find middle ground that lets them seal the deal. 

Overview available in Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian 

Q&A

India Rekindles Its China Ties as Trump’s Tariffs Bite

A late August summit has showcased the two Asian giants’ desire to ease recenttensions and hail a new era in relations. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi explores New Delhi’s efforts to reset with Beijing amid a trade spat with Washington.

Commentary

Sri Lanka’s National People’s Power Faces the Legacy of Civil War

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his National People’s Power government are struggling to build a more stable, inclusive political culture in Sri Lanka. A mix of bold action and political skill will be needed. Support from the UN Human Rights Council can help.

Briefing

Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan’s Malaise

Tensions are rising in South Sudan as the president manoeuvres to anoint an apparent successor and dissolves the bargain that ended the post-independence civil war. African leaders with the president’s ear should work together to ward off a devastating new upheaval in the world’s youngest country.

Commentary

Préserver la stabilité du Tchad face au conflit soudanais

La guerre au Soudan a plongé l’est du Tchad dans une grave crise humanitaire et provoqué des tensions au sein du pouvoir à N’Djamena. Pour préserver la stabilité du pays, le gouvernement tchadien devrait accorder la priorité à l’aide d’urgence et retrouver une neutralité dans sa politique soudanaise.

New Translation

Supporting Effective Policing by Lebanon’s Embattled Security Agencies

Lebanon’s economic meltdown since 2019 has sparked fears of crime waves or civil unrest. Informal arrangements have helped stave off these scenarios, even through war, but they may be unsustainable. Reform is needed so that the state can deliver reliable budgets for its security apparatus.

Now available in Arabic

/// Op-Ed

Legal Issues Raised by a Lethal U.S. Military Attack in the Caribbean

By Brian Finucane, Crisis Group’s Senior Adviser, U.S. Originally published in Just Security

/// Upcoming Event

Tracking Resources and Conflict in a Fracturing World

Join International Crisis Group for a special event unveiling our new early warning platform, the Early Action and Risk Tracking Hub (eEARTH). In this webinar, Crisis Group experts examine the ways natural resources and climate hazards shape modern conflicts, and demonstrate how eEARTH’s integrated approach – combining satellite and other data with on-the-ground political analysis – offers a powerful framework for anticipating risks in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

The panel discussion will be held in English and will be live-streamed on YouTube.

Please register here if you would like to attend this online event.

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