Decision-Making in Times of Change

"What if I make the wrong decision?" "What if users hate my product?" "What do I tell my manager?" Every product manager sometimes fears making decisions because our decisions have long-lasting and drastic impact on our users and the business. If you fear making a decision, the solution is 𝗡𝗢𝗧 to avoid it. Instead, it is to make the "𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲" given the knowledge, information, and experience you have. When I am in situations where I need to make a critical decision with limited information, this is what I do: 𝗚𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝗰𝗮𝗻 I gather more information via user research, market analysis, stakeholder input, and competitive analysis. The more information I have, the better the decision. 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝗜 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗲 This helps me focus on the most critical decisions. It helps me not get distracted by irrelevant/less important aspects. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀. I like to, first, think of multiple options. Then I weigh the pros and cons of all options using as much data and information as possible. This approach forces me to objectively think of the positive impact and compare it to the potential risks. This improves my decision quality. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗺𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴. Different perspectives expose me to ideas I wouldn't have thought of alone. These new ideas make my decision more thorough. 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘁 There is never a perfect time to make a decision. When I have the information I can get quickly, I go ahead and make the decision. I then document my approach, reasoning, and rationale for making the decision. This document acts as a quick reference for later and keeps improving my decision-making process. 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁, 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲. Even if I make one wrong decision, that does not always mean that all future decisions will be wrong, so I stop, evaluate, measure, and improve after every decision. -- In most situations, PMs will never have the perfect information required to make the perfect decision. So, always aim to make the "best decision" based on the information you have. Data, logic, open-mindedness, and critical thinking help make the "best decision possible" in most situations. Remember: Perfection is not the goal. Progress is.

It is impossible to predict the future with certainty—yet businesses, especially in industries like oil and energy, must form a clear view of what lies ahead. Pierre Wack, the pioneer of scenario planning at Shell, argued that traditional forecasting often fails at the most critical moments. Here’s why: - Forecasts assume stability, but the world is constantly changing. - When major shifts occur, forecasts break down—leaving businesses unprepared. - Decision-makers often struggle with uncertainty because they cannot exercise their judgment. So how do you plan for the future when the future is unknowable? Wack’s answer was scenario planning—an approach that moves beyond forecasting and focuses on understanding the forces that drive change. Key principles of scenario planning: 1. Identify predetermined elements—events that will happen, regardless of uncertainty. 2. Recognize critical uncertainties—factors that could shape the future in different ways. 3. Avoid single-line strategies—build flexible plans that account for multiple possibilities. 4. Change decision-makers’ mental models—because real planning is about shaping perception, not just producing documents. Traditional strategic planning often relies on numbers and projections, but Wack believed that real foresight comes from wisdom. It’s not about predicting what will happen—it’s about preparing for what could happen. Are you making decisions based on forecasts, or are you building the flexibility to adapt to change? P.S. If you like content like this, please follow me.

Decision-making can be daunting. Strategy fundamentally involves making choices—determining where to focus, what trade-offs to accept, and how to allocate resources to achieve desired outcomes. The brutal fact: We don’t always have all the answers, but decisions can’t wait until we fully understand every detail. One of the decision-making frameworks I keep in my pocket - 𝐂𝐲𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 It is based on the nature of the situation (complexity) and the level of predictability. 𝟏. 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 ➡️ What it means: You know what's happening and understand it fully. ➡️ Example: A customer support team spends hours every day categorizing and assigning incoming tickets manually, following a consistent set of rules. ➡️ How to decide: 1. Sense: Understand the facts of the situation. 2. Categorize: Match it to a known framework or pattern. 3. Respond: Apply a straightforward solution, as the answer is often obvious. 🔔 Key Tip: Stick to tried-and-true methods for efficiency and consistency. 𝟐. 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐔𝐧𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐭 ➡️ What it means: You know there’s a problem but don’t fully understand it yet. ➡️ Example: User churn rates are high, but the reasons behind it are unclear. Analytics show patterns, but they don’t provide definitive insights into why users are leaving. ➡️ How to decide: 1. Sense: Gather all relevant data and inputs. 2. Analyze: Use expert opinions, tools, or detailed studies. 3. Respond: Choose the best course of action from multiple viable options. 🔔 Key Tip: Don’t rush. Use analysis and expertise to guide decisions. 𝟑. 𝐔𝐧𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 ➡️ What it means: There are things you don't realize but could understand if you investigated. Patterns exist but are not obvious upfront. ➡️ Example: Discovering unconscious biases affecting hiring dynamics. ➡️ How to decide: 1. Probe: Conduct safe-to-fail experiments to uncover hidden factors. 2. Sense: Observe the results to identify emerging patterns. 3. Respond: Adapt based on the insights gained. 🔔 Key Tip: Be open to exploration and learning; flexibility is crucial. 𝟒. 𝐔𝐧𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐔𝐧𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐨𝐬 ➡️ What it means: You’re blindsided by events you couldn’t predict or prepare for. ➡️ Example: A sudden industry-disrupting technology or a global crisis like COVID-19. ➡️ How to decide: 1. Act: Take decisive steps to establish stability like emergency measures. 2. Sense: Identify areas of order or stability amid the chaos. 3. Respond: Gradually transition to a more manageable situation by creating structure. 🔔 Key Tip: Speed is critical; act first, then refine your approach. And when faced with 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 (𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫)—a completely unclear state— break it down into smaller parts and assign each to its appropriate category for clarity. Have you used this framework? #productmanagement #strategy

10 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 Navigating uncertainty isn’t just a challenge—it’s an opportunity for visionary leaders. By leveraging foresight-driven sensemaking, you can anticipate change more effectively, develop highly adaptive and antifragile strategies, and unlock transformative innovations in an early stage. Here are 10 essential, field-proven instruments to enhance your foresight and ability to shape a thriving future for you and your organization: 1️⃣ 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 – Detect early signals of emerging trends, risks, and opportunities to stay ahead of the curve. 2️⃣ 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 – Identify ongoing trends, their drivers, and potential impacts on industries and societies. 3️⃣ 𝗖𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀-𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 – Evaluate how different trends, events, or factors influence each other over time. 4️⃣ 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 & 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 – Recognize early indicators of change (weak signals) and prepare for high-impact, unexpected events (wild cards). 5️⃣ 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗲𝗹 – A visual brainstorming tool to map out direct and indirect consequences of a change or event. 6️⃣ 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗽𝗵𝗶 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱 – A structured forecasting technique that gathers expert consensus to enhance decision-making. 7️⃣ 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 – Develop multiple plausible future scenarios to prepare for uncertainty and explore strategic options. 8️⃣ 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 (𝗖𝗟𝗔) – A deep analysis framework that uncovers different layers of meaning, systemic causes, and underlying worldviews. 9️⃣ 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 – Helps decision-makers think about present and future simultaneously by categorizing innovation and change into three time-based horizons. 🔟 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 – Starts with a desirable future vision and works backward to identify necessary steps to achieve it. In an era of constant change and opportunity, these tools help you and your organization move beyond short-term thinking and develop long-term strategic foresight to drive imagination, innovation, and antifragility. 👉 Follow Ewa Lombard, PhD, and Sebastian Baumann for more insights on foresight, visionary leadership, and future-fit decision-making. Press 🔔 to stay updated on upcoming posts, articles, and our peer-reviewed papers on these topics. 👉 Find more info on our 2025 special 𝗙𝗨𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘 𝗨𝗡𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 - exclusive visionary leadership retreats and trainings - at Gravity & Grandeur

The Art of Choosing—Why Great Leaders Never Stop Adjusting Most decision-making advice tells us to weigh the pros and cons and pick the best option. But real-world leadership is rarely that simple. – Should we focus on long-term strategy or meet short-term goals? – Should we prioritize individual career growth or team success? – Should we invest in stability or change? The best leaders don’t look for one-time solutions—they stay in the process of choosing. Our research found that they do this in two key ways: – Mules—Finding hybrid solutions that integrate opposing forces, like balancing remote flexibility with in-office collaboration. – Tightrope Walking—Shifting dynamically between priorities over time, like balancing work and personal life as needs evolve. Rigid choices limit us. Adaptive decision-making allows us to embrace complexity and lead with greater clarity and impact. How do you balance competing priorities in your leadership?

🔦 How Should Companies Adapt in an Era of Political Uncertainty? 💡 In 2019, Benjamin Laker and I wrote a piece in Harvard Business Review on managing geopolitical uncertainty. It seems like it is more relevant than ever for 2025. Companies that thrive in turbulent times don’t just react—they proactively adapt. 🏷️ Some key strategies that remain just as relevant today: 🔹 Agility Over Rigidity – Organizations that build flexibility into their operations and decision-making can pivot more effectively when policies shift. Those overly committed to one strategy risk being caught off guard. 🔹 Scenario Planning – Businesses that anticipate different regulatory or economic scenarios (rather than assuming stability) position themselves to respond swiftly. AI and data analytics make this easier than ever. 🔹 Stakeholder Engagement – Political shifts don’t just affect boardrooms; they impact employees, consumers, and supply chains. Companies that engage with policymakers and their communities can mitigate risks and identify opportunities. 🔹 Values-Driven Leadership – More than ever, consumers and employees expect businesses to take a stand on social and political issues. But companies that navigate these waters successfully don’t react impulsively—they align with their core values and strategic objectives. ⚡ These principles will define which businesses remain resilient and which struggle to keep pace. #Leadership #Strategy #FutureOfWork #PoliticalUncertainty #BusinessResilience

How do you plan in turbulent markets? Managers, Board Members, and Investors are expressing exasperation with the fast changing regulatory environment, and policies which are shifting dramatically on seemingly a daily basis. What can you do? You cannot control the external environment. What you can do however is to understand with your board and managers: Your Strategic assumptions about the future The data and weak signals that are indicating to you how the world may unfold Key implications to your Strategy both short and long term Once you have clarity on this, and agreement by the key decision makers with your thinking in writing, you can begin to act in terms of options. Optionality in your Strategy that leaves open multiple opportunities, and allows you to pivot, adjust, and adapt to new information quickly and efficiently. In times of volatility, you need a Strategy process that is dynamic, proven, and works with both your board and your managers. Standing still can be fatal, and a strategy that is not moving with the times risks to be stranded while a faster moving competitor or alternative takes your market and margins. Businesses that are as effective in periods of volatility as they are during stability will be the long term winners as our world continues to change, and our industries continue to shift. How well does your Strategy process adapt to new information, and test your assumptions and their implications for the future? Strategy is Mastery. What tools have you found work best in understanding what to do next during periods of dynamic change?

Change is constant and uncertainty is a given; viewing decisions as experiments provides a robust framework for achieving sustainable success. The assertion “Every decision is an experiment,” encapsulates a pivotal mindset for navigating uncertainty and complexity. This perspective, rooted in principles of reinforcement learning and stochastic optimization, serves as a powerful reminder that decisions, whether in personal life or in professional realms, are inherently iterative and exploratory. 𝐄𝐦𝐛𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 At its core, viewing decisions as experiments acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in every choice we make. This approach is particularly vital in dynamic environments such as supply chain management, where variables and outcomes are often unpredictable. By framing decisions as experiments, we accept that outcomes are not guaranteed, allowing us to adapt and learn from each result, whether successful or not. 𝐈𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Every decision provides an opportunity to gather data, test hypotheses, and refine strategies. This iterative process is like the scientific method where each experiment (or decision) generates valuable insights, informing future choices. 𝐑𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞 Adopting an experimental mindset helps mitigate the fear of failure. When decisions are viewed as experiments, the focus shifts from avoiding failure to maximizing learning. Each decision, whether it results in success or a setback, becomes a stepping stone toward greater understanding and improvement. This shift in perspective fosters innovation and encourages taking calculated risks. 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚-𝐃𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 The quote also underscores the importance of data in decision-making. By treating each decision as an experiment, we inherently rely on data to guide our choices and evaluate outcomes. This data-driven approach enhances the accuracy and effectiveness of our decisions. In the automotive industry, leveraging data from various sources (such as market trends, customer preferences, and operational metrics) enables more informed and strategic decision-making. 𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 In practical terms, this experimental approach can be seen in sequential decision analytics, where decisions are made in stages, with each stage building on the results of the previous ones. For instance, when optimizing vehicle production schedules, initial decisions can be based on historical data and predictive models. As new data becomes available, these decisions are revisited and adjusted, ensuring continuous alignment with market demands and operational capabilities. 🤔 𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒔𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒐 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒕 𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕? #SupplyChainManagement #ReinforcementLearning #Optimization

🔷 Leadership Insight: Courageous Decision-Making in Uncertain Times 🔷 In times of uncertainty, leaders face the challenge of making critical decisions with incomplete information and unpredictable outcomes. Courageous decision-making is not about fearlessness—it’s about moving forward with confidence and clarity despite the fear of the unknown. Here are three strategies to guide leaders in making bold, impactful decisions: 🔶 Define Your North Star 🔶 Start by anchoring your decisions to your organization’s mission, values, and long-term goals. When faced with competing priorities, ask yourself: "Does this align with our core purpose?" A clear vision provides a compass for navigating complexity and ensures consistency in your actions. 🔷 Gather Diverse Perspectives 🔷 Courageous decision-making doesn’t mean going it alone. Engage your team, advisors, and stakeholders to gather a range of viewpoints. Diverse perspectives reveal blind spots, challenge assumptions, and uncover creative solutions that you might not see on your own. 🔶 Embrace Imperfection and Act Decisively 🔶 In uncertain times, waiting for perfect information often results in missed opportunities. Instead, focus on making the best possible decision with the data you have. Commit to action, monitor the results, and be prepared to pivot as needed. Courage lies in the willingness to adapt and learn from the outcomes. 🌟 Call to Action: As a leader, your decisions set the tone for your team and organization. In uncertain times, prioritize clarity, inclusion, and agility. What bold decision can you make today that aligns with your values and moves your mission forward? Reflect on your current challenges, gather input, and take that step forward with confidence—it could make all the difference. #229ExecutiveDevelopment #TWH Bill Russell Drex DeFord Meghan Trevorrow Jairus Williams Kate Gamble Holly Russell